Ituzaingó vs Liniers Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Jun 19, 2026 - 22:00
1.33
1.27
37% 30% 34%

Penilaian Prediksi

Prediksi yang boleh dipercayai

Kegemaran
Ituzaingó Perlawanan seimbang
Kebarangkalian model
36.6%
Kebarangkalian pasaran
32.2%
Perjanjian pasaran
kuat
Pengesahan
lulus

Ringkasan:

Model dan pasaran kedua-dua lean {pasukan}, tetapi kedua-duanya tidak menunjukkan kegemaran yang dominan. Seri dan Liniers kekal munasabah — ini perlawanan yang agak terbuka.

Audit Pasaran

Perjanjian pasaran
kuat
Pengesahan
lulus
Jurang terbesar
Ituzaingó +4.4 pp
Keluasan
6/6
Aktiviti pasaran semasa
Belum ada pergerakan arah yang bermakna.

Penilaian Pasaran

Pasaran dan model adalah sejajar secara meluas. Sebarang jurang harga yang kecil mungkin menggambarkan margin penggenapan atau pembuat taruhan, bukan percanggahan struktur.

Aktiviti pasaran sejajar dengan jurang harga terbesar pada Ituzaingó.

  • Harga semasa kekal hampir dengan garis dasar model.
Hasil Adil Pasaran Tepi
Ituzaingó 36.59% 32.22% +4.4 pp
Seri 29.64% 32.81% -3.2 pp
Liniers 33.77% 34.97% -1.2 pp

Kebarangkalian saksama daripada model statistik Poisson/xG. Bukan penentu taruhan. Bukan nasihat pertaruhan.

Keputusan pertaruhan akhir

Kecekapan harga pasaran berbeza secara berbeza — 1X2 boleh menjadi hantaran sementara pasaran matlamat masih menunjukkan kelebihan.

  • Tiada nilai pada 1X2 (Ituzaingó lwn. odds semasa)
  • Nilai yang mungkin: Lebih 2.5 (+25%+ EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
  • Nilai yang mungkin: BTTS Ya (+25%+ EV pada kemungkinan terbaik)
  • Significant line move — see market context below.
Sabitan sederhana (6.5/10) — satu baris terpilih, bukan parlay berbilang pasaran.
Laman pertaruhan premium 1xBet: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo 1x_3342271. Daftar sekarang
Pilihan utama (+EV tertinggi)
BTTS Ya — Nilai
EV +25%+ Model 54.5%
Menengah (nilai seimbang): Lebih 2.5 (EV +25%+) — 48.2% Model
EV yang lebih rendah daripada primer, tetapi dengan kebarangkalian model yang lebih tinggi (lebih "stabil" apabila ditunjukkan).
Lebih / Kurang 2.5 Nilai terbaik (+EV)
Lebih 2.5 48.2% · Kurang 2.5 51.8%
EV Selesai +25%+ · EV Di Bawah -29.5%
Condong nilai: Lebih 2.5
1X2 Nilai lemah
Ituzaingó · Kebarangkalian model 36.6%
Konsensus pasaran (3 hala) 32.2%
EV garisan konsensus: -4.6%
Cerapan skor tepat Kecua / hiburan
Paling berkemungkinan
1-1
Kebarangkalian 12.5%
Skor tepat berisiko tinggi — pertaruhan kecil untuk hiburan sahaja.
Keputusan pertaruhan (model lwn. EV pasaran)
Nilai peluang — Sekurang-kurangnya satu pasaran menunjukkan anggaran +EV pada kemungkinan perpuluhan terbaik semasa (ambang: 2.0%).
Kekuatan keputusan: 6.5 / 10
  • Barisan utama dikenal pasti (+1.0)
  • EV utama melebihi 10% (+1.0)
  • Kebarangkalian maksimum 1X2 di bawah 50% (tiada 1X2 dominan) (−1.0)
  • Dua atau lebih baris +EV yang sah pada ambang (+0.5)
O/U 2.5: EV Selesai +25%+ · EV Di Bawah -29.5% (5 pasangan buku)
BTTS: EV Ya +25%+ · EV No -29.5%
Should you bet on this match? Only where +EV is shown; always compare with your own limits.

Ituzaingó market context before kickoff

— Menjejaki on Ituzaingó

Odds move
2.80 → 2.80 (+0.0%)
Market breadth
6/6
Steam score
40 (B)
Current status
1X2 repriced at consensus; goals markets may still show +EV.

Steam detected. Model value still remains — 1X2 looks repriced; compare Over/Under and BTTS EV cards above.

Steam measures market activity. EV measures betting value.

Kitaran Hayat Keputusan

Peringkat semasa: Pemantauan pasaran

  1. Prediksi Dijana
  2. Pasaran Berbanding
  3. Pengesahan Lulus
  4. Penutupan Dirakam
  5. CLV Dinilai
Kemasukan
2.8
Penutup
Belum selesai
CLV
Belum selesai

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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          "favourite_label": "Ituzaing\u00f3",
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          "model_prob_pct": 36.6,
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          "summary": "The model and market both lean Ituzaing\u00f3, but neither indicates a dominant favourite. Draw and Liniers remain plausible \u2014 this is a relatively open match.",
          "tier": "balanced",
          "title": "Prediction Assessment",
          "validation_label": "Pass"
        },
        "forecast_certainty": {
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          "tier": "low",
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        "forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
        "has_market_probs": true,
        "hero_edge_pp": 4.37,
        "hero_label": "Ituzaing\u00f3",
        "hero_side": "home",
        "market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
        "market_agreement": "strong",
        "market_agreement_label": "Strong",
        "market_interpretation": {
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          ],
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          "lead": "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
          "note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ituzaing\u00f3.",
          "paragraphs": [
            "The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.",
            "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ituzaing\u00f3."
          ],
          "quiet_market": false,
          "title": "Market Assessment"
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        "market_narrative": {
          "paragraphs": [
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            "Recent line movement on Ituzaing\u00f3 (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
            "Broad sportsbook alignment (6/6) supports the current market view on Ituzaing\u00f3."
          ],
          "title": "Current Market Narrative"
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        "max_gap_pp": 4.37,
        "model_validation": {
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        "outcome_separation": {
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            "Top two 1X2 outcomes within 2.8 percentage points."
          ],
          "lead_gap_pp": 2.8,
          "max_prob_pct": 36.6,
          "note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
          "tier": "low",
          "tier_label": "Low"
        },
        "outcome_separation_label": "Low",
        "rows": [
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            "edge_pp": 4.37,
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            "is_hero": true,
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            "side": "home"
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          {
            "edge_pp": -3.17,
            "fair_prob_pct": 29.64,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Draw",
            "market_prob_pct": 32.81,
            "side": "draw"
          },
          {
            "edge_pp": -1.2,
            "fair_prob_pct": 33.77,
            "is_hero": false,
            "label": "Liniers",
            "market_prob_pct": 34.97,
            "side": "away"
          }
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        "status": "aligned",
        "status_label": "Aligned",
        "steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ituzaing\u00f3.",
        "unavailable_note": ""
      },
      "interpretation": {
        "has_conflict": true,
        "paragraphs": [
          "The betting market strongly prefers Liniers (32.2%).",
          "This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ituzaing\u00f3, Market \u2192 Liniers, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
          "Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
        ],
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        "model_validation_label": "Pass",
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            "id": "clv_evaluated",
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      "market_move_intelligence": {
        "show": false
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      "market_overview": {
        "breadth_display": "6/6",
        "current_odds": 2.8,
        "move_display": "+0.0%",
        "open_odds": 2.8,
        "pick_team": "Ituzaing\u00f3",
        "steam_score": 40,
        "steam_team_name": "Ituzaing\u00f3",
        "steam_tier": "B"
      },
      "premium_teaser": {
        "current_divergence_pp": 4.4,
        "divergence_label": "Current divergence",
        "title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
        "unlock_items": [
          "Historical similar matches",
          "Closing odds analysis",
          "CLV tracking",
          "Sharp money signals",
          "Market efficiency rating",
          "Historical model vs market results"
        ],
        "unlock_label": "Unlock"
      },
      "show": true
    },
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 8395,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8395.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Liniers",
      "country_code": "AR",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
      "country_name": "Argentina",
      "fixture_id": 1499479,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_country": "Argentina",
      "home_team_id": 8386,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8386.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Ituzaing\u00f3",
      "league_country": "Argentina",
      "league_id": 131,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/131.webp",
      "league_name": "Primera B Metropolitana",
      "league_season": 2026,
      "match_date": "2026-06-19 22:00:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS",
      "venue_city": null,
      "venue_name": "Estadio Carlos Sacaan"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
          "Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.4418,
            "best_odd": 2.58,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0054,
            "ev": -0.1116,
            "implied_prob": 0.3497,
            "model_prob": 0.3375,
            "p_final": 0.3443
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.4287,
            "best_odd": 2.75,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0135,
            "ev": -0.135,
            "implied_prob": 0.3281,
            "model_prob": 0.2965,
            "p_final": 0.3145
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.4205,
            "best_odd": 2.8,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0184,
            "ev": -0.0463,
            "implied_prob": 0.3222,
            "model_prob": 0.366,
            "p_final": 0.3406
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 1.55,
          "best_yes_odd": 2.38,
          "edge_no": -0.1428,
          "edge_yes": 0.1428,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": -0.2947,
          "ev_yes": 0.2971,
          "implied_no": 0.5978,
          "implied_yes": 0.4022,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 3.0,
          "best_under_odd": 1.36,
          "edge_over": 0.1619,
          "edge_under": -0.1619,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": 0.446,
          "ev_under": -0.2955,
          "implied_over": 0.3201,
          "implied_under": 0.6799,
          "n_bookmakers": 5,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 2.6,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.2.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.446,
      "confidence": 6.5,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
          "pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
          "pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
          "pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "Primary line identified (+1.0)",
          "Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
          "Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
          "Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 6.5
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": false,
        "1x2_open_contest": true,
        "grade": "A",
        "stake_factor": 1.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "balanced",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
          "draw_prob": 0.2965,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.366,
          "over_prob": 0.482,
          "total_xg": 2.6,
          "under_prob": 0.518,
          "xg_diff": 0.06
        },
        "type": "balanced",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0184,
          "ev": -0.0463,
          "implied_prob": 0.3222,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.366,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Ituzaing\u00f3"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1428,
          "ev": 0.2971,
          "implied_prob": 0.4022,
          "model_prob": 0.545,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "edge": 0.1619,
          "ev": 0.446,
          "implied_prob": 0.3201,
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1499479,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "bet",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": true,
        "code": "clear_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.446,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 1.0,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3375,
        "draw": 0.2965,
        "home": 0.366
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": {
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.446,
        "implied_prob": 0.3201,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.482,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "secondary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "secondary"
      },
      "secondary_picks": [
        {
          "decision": "value_bet",
          "ev": 0.446,
          "implied_prob": 0.3201,
          "market": "ou_2_5",
          "model_prob": 0.482,
          "not_dominant": true,
          "risk_band": "medium",
          "risk_tier": "secondary",
          "side": "over",
          "slot": "secondary"
        }
      ],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Liniers",
        "home": "Ituzaing\u00f3"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.161919,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.2971,
        "implied_prob": 0.4022,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.545,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "yes",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1499479,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T07:27:00.936205+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}
Bagaimana untuk menggunakan ini
  • Fokus pada baris Utama apabila anda mahukan satu idea yang boleh diambil tindakan.
  • Jangan parlay banyak picks tepi nipis bersama-sama;tepi tidak menambah dengan pasti.
  • Anggap pukulan panjang sebagai permainan pilihan, bersaiz tinggi sahaja.

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