AI correctly predicted the Colegiales win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Colegiales Colegiales ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colegiales | 42.4% | 46.7% | -4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 31.3% | -2.0 pp | Aligned |
| Chacarita Juniors | 28.4% | 22.0% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Chacarita Juniors's win probability at 28.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.0%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Colegiales win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Chacarita Juniors.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Colegiales more conservatively (36.1% vs model 42.4%, 6.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Colegiales win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Colegiales 42.4% · Draw 29.2% · Chacarita Juniors 28.4%
- xG · Colegiales 1.45 — Chacarita Juniors 1.15
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Colegiales 2.04 · Draw 3.04 · Chacarita Juniors 4.32
- Implied 1X2 · Colegiales 46.7% · Draw 31.3% · Chacarita Juniors 22.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Colegiales 2.04 · Draw 3.04 · Chacarita Juniors 4.32
- Implied 1X2 · Colegiales 46.7% · Draw 31.3% · Chacarita Juniors 22.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 23:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Colegiales win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
76/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
68/100
Betting Confidence
79/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.32
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Colegiales win · Colegiales 2–1 Chacarita Juniors
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
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"alert_breadth_note": "7/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +25.0%",
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"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
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},
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"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colegiales at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
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"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colegiales",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
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"primary_allowed": true,
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"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
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"value": "no"
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"ok": true,
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},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
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},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0851,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1359,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.7777777777777778,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.8,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 87,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 6.34,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.34,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.15,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.45,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.45,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.45 \u00b7 Away xG 1.15 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +7%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"steam_team": "Chacarita Juniors",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4942,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4942,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colegiales at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colegiales as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colegiales",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0851,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1359,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Colegiales 1.45 xG vs Chacarita Juniors 1.15 \u2192 Colegiales 42.4%",
"Market: Colegiales ~46.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Chacarita Juniors odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colegiales with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -4.29,
"fair_prob": 42.37,
"label": "Colegiales",
"market_prob": 46.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.05,
"fair_prob": 29.26,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 31.31,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.34,
"fair_prob": 28.37,
"label": "Chacarita Juniors",
"market_prob": 22.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 16.12,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 32.08,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -16.12,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 67.92,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.99,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 38.91,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.99,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 61.09,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 6.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Chacarita Juniors",
"market_prob_pct": 22.03,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Chacarita Juniors"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Chacarita Juniors\u0027s win probability at 28.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 22.0%, a difference of 6.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 6.34,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Colegiales",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 46.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -4.3,
"model_prob_pct": 42.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -4.3,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 87,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Colegiales \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 91,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 78,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Colegiales 1.45 xG vs Chacarita Juniors 1.15 \u2192 Colegiales 42.4%",
"Market: Colegiales ~46.7% implied",
"Market Drift: Chacarita Juniors odds \u2191 +25.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Colegiales with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 6.34,
"hero_label": "Chacarita Juniors",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Chacarita Juniors odds lengthened \u2191 +25.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Chacarita Juniors.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Chacarita Juniors.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Chacarita Juniors.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Chacarita Juniors."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Chacarita Juniors.",
"Recent line movement on Chacarita Juniors (\u2191 +25.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (7/9) supports the current market view on Chacarita Juniors."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 6.34,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.1 pp (at 42.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.1,
"max_prob_pct": 42.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Chacarita Juniors",
"largest_gap_pp": 6.3,
"lead": "The model rates Chacarita Juniors considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 6.3,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -4.29,
"edge_pp": -4.29,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.37,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Colegiales",
"market_prob_pct": 46.66,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.05,
"edge_pp": -2.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.26,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 31.31,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.34,
"edge_pp": 6.34,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.37,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Chacarita Juniors",
"market_prob_pct": 22.03,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Chacarita Juniors.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Colegiales (46.7%).",
"However, Chacarita Juniors has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +25.0%, 7/9) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Colegiales \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 23.15,
"closing_odds": 4.32,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 23.15,
"entry_odds": 4.32,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 25.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 135h 15m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"7/9 books lengthened Chacarita Juniors together (25.0% drift, score 62) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 25.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.50",
"4.05",
"3.60"
],
"display": "4.50 \u2192 3.60 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 135h 15m",
"pick_team": "Chacarita Juniors",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.6,
4.32,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.6 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.60"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.6,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Chacarita Juniors odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Chacarita Juniors",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Chacarita Juniors odds \u2191 +25.0% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Chacarita Juniors",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/9",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +25.0%",
"open_odds": 3.6,
"pick_team": "Chacarita Juniors",
"steam_score": 62,
"steam_team_name": "Chacarita Juniors",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 6.3,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "chacarita-juniors",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chacarita Juniors",
"away_team_id": 447,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/447.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chacarita Juniors",
"away_team_public_id": "54vOaJYuJqepH1",
"away_team_slug": "chacarita-juniors",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498836,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Colegiales",
"home_team_id": 8377,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/8377.webp",
"home_team_name": "Colegiales",
"home_team_public_id": "0qV7UaS0NtXeOQ",
"home_team_slug": "colegiales",
"ht.home_team_slug": "colegiales",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 23:00:00",
"public_id": "3IrIuQ6Frg4adE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": "Estadio de Colegiales"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1809,
"best_odd": 4.32,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0115,
"ev": 0.0016,
"implied_prob": 0.2203,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2203,
"draw": 0.3131,
"home": 0.4666
},
"model_prob": 0.284,
"p_final": 0.2319
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2907,
"best_odd": 3.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.006,
"ev": -0.0665,
"implied_prob": 0.3131,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2203,
"draw": 0.3131,
"home": 0.4666
},
"model_prob": 0.2923,
"p_final": 0.3071
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.421,
"best_odd": 2.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.4666,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2203,
"draw": 0.3131,
"home": 0.4666
},
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"p_final": 0.4485
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.32,
"edge": 0.0525,
"ev": 0.227,
"implied_prob": 0.2315,
"model_prob": 0.284
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.04,
"edge": -0.0366,
"ev": -0.1113,
"implied_prob": 0.3289,
"model_prob": 0.2923
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.04,
"edge": -0.0666,
"ev": -0.1358,
"implied_prob": 0.4902,
"model_prob": 0.4236
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1912,
"alpha_yes": 0.1391,
"best_no_odd": 1.57,
"best_yes_odd": 2.5,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1499,
"edge_yes": 0.1499,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2762,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1216,
"ev_yes": 0.3475,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0278,
"implied_no": 0.6109,
"implied_yes": 0.3891,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1912,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.6126,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5836
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1391,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0278,
"implied_prob": 0.3874,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4085
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5836,
"p_final_yes": 0.4085,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1375,
"alpha_under": 0.1891,
"best_over_odd": 3.1,
"best_under_odd": 1.4,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.83,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.36,
"edge_over": 0.1612,
"edge_under": -0.1612,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4942,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0202,
"ev_under": -0.2748,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1219,
"implied_over": 0.3208,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3246,
"implied_under": 0.6792,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6754,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1375,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.3246,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3462
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1891,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1219,
"implied_prob": 0.6754,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6457
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3462,
"p_final_under": 0.6457,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4942,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4942,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4942,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 8.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 8.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 8.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 6.3,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 6.3,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.4942,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4942,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 8.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 8.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 91,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Colegiales at 42.4%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 46.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Colegiales as the value side (42.4%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 4.3,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Colegiales",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +49.4% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 8.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +49.4% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 8.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "87 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "91 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+49.4% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Colegiales).",
"Decision strength: 8.0/10"
],
"reliability_score": 87,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0851,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1359,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 7.4,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.3
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2923,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4236,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0181,
"ev": -0.0851,
"implied_prob": 0.4666,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Colegiales"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1391,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0211,
"market_prob": 0.3874,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1912,
"best_odd": 1.505,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1216,
"implied_prob": 0.6126,
"model_prob": 0.461,
"p_final": 0.5836
},
"p_final": 0.4085,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0278,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1391,
"best_odd": 2.38,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.0278,
"implied_prob": 0.3874,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"p_final": 0.4085
}
},
"edge": 0.1499,
"ev": 0.3475,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1375,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0216,
"market_prob": 0.3246,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1375,
"best_odd": 2.83,
"edge": 0.0216,
"ev": -0.0202,
"implied_prob": 0.3246,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3462
},
"p_final": 0.3462,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0202,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1891,
"best_odd": 1.36,
"edge": -0.0298,
"ev": -0.1219,
"implied_prob": 0.6754,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6457
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1612,
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3208,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498836,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4942,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.284,
"draw": 0.2923,
"home": 0.4236
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3208,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4942,
"implied_prob": 0.3208,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chacarita Juniors",
"home": "Colegiales"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.187303,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3475,
"implied_prob": 0.3891,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.539,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0851,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.5%",
"consensus_odds": 2.04,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4666,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4236,
"raw_edge_display": "-4.3 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -4.3,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.49019607843137253,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1359,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-13.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498836,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T22:59:56.978019+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Primera Nacional — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
