The model missed the final outcome (San Telmo win 0–2).
The model had projected Atlético Mitre at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Atlético Mitre San Telmo ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mitre | 37.5% | 52.1% | -14.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.0% | -0.4 pp | Aligned |
| San Telmo | 32.9% | 17.8% | +15.0 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates San Telmo's win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 17.8%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah San Telmo win 0–2.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on San Telmo.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atlético Mitre by 15.0 percentage points (22.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atlético Mitre 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · San Telmo 32.9%
- xG · Atlético Mitre 1.35 — San Telmo 1.25
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Mitre 1.82 · Draw 3.16 · San Telmo 5.33
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Mitre 52.1% · Draw 30.0% · San Telmo 17.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atlético Mitre 1.82 · Draw 3.16 · San Telmo 5.33
- Implied 1X2 · Atlético Mitre 52.1% · Draw 30.0% · San Telmo 17.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result San Telmo win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
55/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
24/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
5.33
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
San Telmo win · Atlético Mitre 0–2 San Telmo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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},
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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{
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"pick": "Yes",
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"strong_pick": true,
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
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{
"away": 0,
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre or San Telmo",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or San Telmo",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre or San Telmo",
"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 37.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 75.4,
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"label": "Away",
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"model_prob": 32.9,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 18:59:01",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 18:30:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 30.04,
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"model_pct": 29.56
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{
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{
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},
{
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],
"movement": [
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{
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{
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"top5": [
{
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{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.35,
"homepage_pick": null,
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{
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"no": {
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},
"p_final": 0.4289,
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"raw_edge_pp": 13.6,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_display": {
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"raw_pct": -27.2,
"text": "-27.2%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10417.39,
"tier": "best",
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"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"alpha": 0.1505,
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"edge": 0.0164,
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"market_prob": 0.3729,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
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"alpha": 0.1505,
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"edge": 0.0164,
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},
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"raw_edge_pp": 10.9,
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"under": {
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"ev": -0.1174,
"implied_prob": 0.6271,
"model_prob": 0.518,
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},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2773,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 27.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -22.3,
"text": "-22.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2773,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10249.57,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1752,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.5,
"text": "-17.5%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0735,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.3,
"text": "+7.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3162,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"sort_key": 5258.8,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "1/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "1/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"alert_team": "San Telmo",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 15.0,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 15.04,
"hero_label": "San Telmo",
"market_prob_pct": 52.1,
"market_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"model_team": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2971,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.752,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Mitre at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Mitre as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Atl\u00e9tico Mitre \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.21 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498834 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.21 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3162,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "1/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.1111111111111111,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (15 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 17.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 1.1,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 52,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 15.04,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 15.04,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.25,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.35,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.35,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.35 \u00b7 Away xG 1.25 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +0%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"steam_team": "San Telmo",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2971,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.752,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Mitre at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Mitre as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Atl\u00e9tico Mitre \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.21 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498834 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.21 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3162,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Mitre 1.35 xG vs San Telmo 1.25 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Mitre 37.5%",
"Market: Atl\u00e9tico Mitre ~52.1% implied",
"Market Steam: San Telmo \u2193 -5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre, but sharp money moved toward San Telmo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -14.61,
"fair_prob": 37.54,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"market_prob": 52.15,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.43,
"fair_prob": 29.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 30.04,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.04,
"fair_prob": 32.85,
"label": "San Telmo",
"market_prob": 17.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 11.21,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.99,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -11.21,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.01,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.72,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 40.78,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.72,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 59.22,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 15.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "San Telmo",
"market_prob_pct": 17.81,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "San Telmo"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates San Telmo\u0027s win probability at 32.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 17.8%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 15.04,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -14.6,
"model_prob_pct": 37.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -14.6,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 52,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 9,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atl\u00e9tico Mitre 1.35 xG vs San Telmo 1.25 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Mitre 37.5%",
"Market: Atl\u00e9tico Mitre ~52.1% implied",
"Market Steam: San Telmo \u2193 -5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre, but sharp money moved toward San Telmo.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 15.04,
"hero_label": "San Telmo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "San Telmo odds shortened \u2193 -5.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on San Telmo.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on San Telmo.",
"Confirmation remains limited (1/9 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors San Telmo more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on San Telmo (\u2193 -5.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (1/9), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 15.04,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 4.7 pp (at 37.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 4.7,
"max_prob_pct": 37.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "San Telmo",
"largest_gap_pp": 15.0,
"lead": "The model rates San Telmo considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 15.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -14.61,
"edge_pp": -14.61,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.54,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"market_prob_pct": 52.15,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.43,
"edge_pp": -0.43,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 30.04,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.04,
"edge_pp": 15.04,
"fair_prob_pct": 32.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "San Telmo",
"market_prob_pct": 17.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atl\u00e9tico Mitre (52.1%).",
"San Telmo has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -5.0%, 1/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Mitre, Market \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico Mitre, Recent sharp money \u2192 San Telmo.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 18.76,
"closing_odds": 5.33,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 18.76,
"entry_odds": 5.33,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 1,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on San Telmo (swing 5.32 \u2192 3.71 \u2192 4.75) \u2014 net 5.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -5.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.33",
"5.04",
"4.75"
],
"display": "5.32 \u2192 3.71 \u2192 4.75",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 2m",
"pick_team": "San Telmo",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.32"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.71"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
5.33,
4.75
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,10.2 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.75"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "San Telmo",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.75,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Market moved toward San Telmo while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "San Telmo",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "1/9",
"current_odds": 4.75,
"move_display": "\u2193 -5.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "San Telmo",
"steam_score": 12,
"steam_team_name": "San Telmo",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 15.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "san-telmo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "San Telmo",
"away_team_id": 1932,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1932.webp",
"away_team_name": "San Telmo",
"away_team_public_id": "3NPkJeKgZIg1NF",
"away_team_slug": "san-telmo",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498834,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"home_team_id": 466,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/466.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"home_team_public_id": "2jqaraZ9AfZsNx",
"home_team_slug": "atletico-mitre",
"ht.home_team_slug": "atletico-mitre",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 19:00:00",
"public_id": "4Hp2a9ZN3X7na7",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Santiago del Estero",
"venue_name": "Estadio Aurinegro"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1548,
"best_odd": 5.33,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0233,
"ev": 0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.1781,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1781,
"draw": 0.3004,
"home": 0.5215
},
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"p_final": 0.2014
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2979,
"best_odd": 3.16,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0014,
"ev": -0.0553,
"implied_prob": 0.3004,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1781,
"draw": 0.3004,
"home": 0.5215
},
"model_prob": 0.2956,
"p_final": 0.299
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4687,
"best_odd": 1.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0684,
"ev": -0.1752,
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1781,
"draw": 0.3004,
"home": 0.5215
},
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"p_final": 0.4532
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.33,
"edge": 0.1411,
"ev": 0.752,
"implied_prob": 0.1876,
"model_prob": 0.3287
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.16,
"edge": -0.0208,
"ev": -0.0658,
"implied_prob": 0.3165,
"model_prob": 0.2956
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.82,
"edge": -0.1738,
"ev": -0.3163,
"implied_prob": 0.5495,
"model_prob": 0.3757
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1972,
"alpha_yes": 0.1434,
"best_no_odd": 1.6,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1372,
"edge_yes": 0.1372,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.272,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1204,
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.035,
"implied_no": 0.5922,
"implied_yes": 0.4078,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1972,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5638
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1434,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.035,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4289
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5638,
"p_final_yes": 0.4289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1505,
"alpha_under": 0.207,
"best_over_odd": 2.65,
"best_under_odd": 1.5,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.455,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.46,
"edge_over": 0.1121,
"edge_under": -0.1121,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.2773,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0442,
"ev_under": -0.223,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1174,
"implied_over": 0.3699,
"implied_over_mf": 0.3729,
"implied_under": 0.6301,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6271,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1505,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.3729,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3893
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.1174,
"implied_prob": 0.6271,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6045
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3893,
"p_final_under": 0.6045,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2971,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.752,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2971,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.7
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 15.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 15.0,
"summary": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.2971,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.752,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.7,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 18,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico Mitre at 37.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico Mitre as the value side (37.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Atl\u00e9tico Mitre \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.21 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +75% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498834 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.21 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +29.7% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +29.7% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +29.7% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +29.7% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "52 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "18 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+29.7% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +75% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 52,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved toward San Telmo, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico Mitre.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3162,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 0.0,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.1"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.1
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2956,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3757,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.1
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0735,
"implied_prob": 0.1781,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.3287,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "speculative",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "San Telmo",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0684,
"ev": -0.1752,
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1434,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0194,
"market_prob": 0.4094,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1972,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0267,
"ev": -0.1204,
"implied_prob": 0.5906,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5638
},
"p_final": 0.4289,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.035,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1434,
"best_odd": 2.25,
"edge": 0.0194,
"ev": -0.035,
"implied_prob": 0.4094,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4289
}
},
"edge": 0.1372,
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1505,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0164,
"market_prob": 0.3729,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1505,
"best_odd": 2.455,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0442,
"implied_prob": 0.3729,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3893
},
"p_final": 0.3893,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0442,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.207,
"best_odd": 1.46,
"edge": -0.0226,
"ev": -0.1174,
"implied_prob": 0.6271,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.6045
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.1121,
"ev": 0.2773,
"implied_prob": 0.3699,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498834,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2971,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3287,
"draw": 0.2956,
"home": 0.3757
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2773,
"implied_prob": 0.3699,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2773,
"implied_prob": 0.3699,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "San Telmo",
"home": "Atl\u00e9tico Mitre"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161919,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4078,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1752,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.5%",
"consensus_odds": 1.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5215,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3757,
"raw_edge_display": "-14.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -14.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5494505494505494,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.3162,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-31.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498834,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:59:07.111538+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Atlético Mitre & San Telmo!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera Nacional — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
