The model missed the final outcome (Atlanta win 1–0).
The model had projected Agropecuario at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Agropecuario Atlanta ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta | 33.3% | 50.2% | -16.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.8% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Agropecuario | 37.1% | 20.0% | +17.1 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Agropecuario's win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 20.0%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Atlanta win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Agropecuario.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Agropecuario by 17.1 percentage points (20.0% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atlanta 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Agropecuario 37.0%
- xG · Atlanta 1.26 — Agropecuario 1.34
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atlanta 1.89 · Draw 3.18 · Agropecuario 4.74
- Implied 1X2 · Atlanta 50.2% · Draw 29.8% · Agropecuario 20.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atlanta 1.89 · Draw 3.18 · Agropecuario 4.75
- Implied 1X2 · Atlanta 50.2% · Draw 29.8% · Agropecuario 20.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Atlanta win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
4/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.75
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Atlanta win · Atlanta 1–0 Agropecuario
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
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{
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}
},
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"away_played": 30,
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"home_played": 29,
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"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
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},
"correct_score": {
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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{
"away": 1,
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"prob": 10.0
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{
"away": 0,
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{
"away": 2,
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{
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"prob": 7.9
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],
"source": "xG"
},
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"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"match_winner": {
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"lean_label": "Agropecuario"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.6,
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"pick": "Over 2.5",
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"label": "Away",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-27 18:29:16",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
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"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Atlanta",
"largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.08,
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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],
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{
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{
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},
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"ev": -0.1875,
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"top5": [
{
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},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.4
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.4
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{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.26,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"edge": 0.0193,
"edge_pp": 1.9,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
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"ev": -0.1219,
"implied_prob": 0.5895,
"model_prob": 0.455,
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},
"p_final": 0.4298,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 13.5,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2208,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0371,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1437,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.3,
"text": "-26.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 29.7,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
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"tier": "best",
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"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
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"consensus_odds": 2.525,
"edge": 0.0175,
"edge_pp": 1.8,
"market_prob": 0.364,
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"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
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"edge": 0.0175,
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"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3815
},
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"raw_edge_pp": 11.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.217,
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"under": {
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"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.636,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.612
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3014,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 30.1,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_under": -0.2385,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -23.8,
"text": "-23.8%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3014,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10271.26,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"consensus_odds": 4.75,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0694,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0694,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 6.9,
"text": "+6.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7599,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.0%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Agropecuario",
"sort_key": 10062.46,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/9",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/9 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"alert_team": "Agropecuario",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.09,
"hero_label": "Agropecuario",
"market_prob_pct": 20.0,
"market_team": "Atlanta",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "Agropecuario",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3014,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.76,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Agropecuario at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Agropecuario as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Agropecuario",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Agropecuario \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +76% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498832 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +30.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +76% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0694,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21052631578947367,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7599,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "6/9",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6666666666666666,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (17 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Steam aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.7,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 64,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.09,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.09,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.34,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.26,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.26 \u00b7 Away xG 1.34 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"steam_team": "Agropecuario",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3014,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.76,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Agropecuario at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Agropecuario as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Agropecuario",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Agropecuario \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +76% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498832 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +30.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +76% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0694,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21052631578947367,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7599,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atlanta 1.26 xG vs Agropecuario 1.34 \u2192 Agropecuario 37.1%",
"Market: Atlanta ~20.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Agropecuario \u2193 -18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Agropecuario, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -16.88,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Atlanta",
"market_prob": 50.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.2,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.83,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.09,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "Agropecuario",
"market_prob": 19.97,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 12.2,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -12.2,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 64.0,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.46,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 41.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -13.46,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 58.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 17.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Agropecuario",
"market_prob_pct": 19.97,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Agropecuario"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Agropecuario\u0027s win probability at 37.1%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 20.0%, a difference of 17.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 17.09,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Agropecuario",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 20.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 17.1,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 64,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Agropecuario \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+17.1 pp).",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 14,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atlanta 1.26 xG vs Agropecuario 1.34 \u2192 Agropecuario 37.1%",
"Market: Atlanta ~20.0% implied",
"Market Steam: Agropecuario \u2193 -18.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Agropecuario, but market pricing diverges by 17 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 17.09,
"hero_label": "Agropecuario",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Agropecuario odds shortened \u2193 -18.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Agropecuario.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Agropecuario.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Agropecuario.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Agropecuario."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Agropecuario more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Agropecuario (\u2193 -18.2%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.09,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Agropecuario",
"largest_gap_pp": 17.1,
"lead": "The model rates Agropecuario considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -16.88,
"edge_pp": -16.88,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Atlanta",
"market_prob_pct": 50.19,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.2,
"edge_pp": -0.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.83,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 17.09,
"edge_pp": 17.09,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Agropecuario",
"market_prob_pct": 19.97,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Agropecuario.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atlanta (20.0%).",
"However, Agropecuario has attracted one of the strongest multi-book steam moves of the day (\u2193 -18.2%, 6/9).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Agropecuario, Market \u2192 Atlanta, Recent sharp money \u2192 Agropecuario.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 21.05,
"closing_odds": 4.75,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 21.05,
"entry_odds": 4.75,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -12.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": -12.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": -8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -6.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": -6.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2193 -4.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": -4.2
}
],
"books_total": 9,
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 18.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book steam on Agropecuario (18.2%, 6/9) \u2014 aligned shortening, not a single-book blip.",
"Sharp sportsbooks led a meaningful repricing with broad market follow-through."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": -18.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.50",
"5.00",
"4.50"
],
"display": "5.50 \u2192 3.29 \u2192 4.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 136h 2m",
"pick_team": "Agropecuario",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.29"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.5,
4.75,
4.74,
4.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,0.0 18.7,13.5 37.3,13.7 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "down",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way drop",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "4.50"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.50"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.5,
"page_alert_line": "Sharp money alert: Agropecuario \u2193 -18.2% market move detected",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Agropecuario",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Sharp money alert: Agropecuario \u2193 -18.2% market move detected",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc8",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.5,
"is_drift": false,
"label": "Sharp signal",
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"summary": "Sharp money supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Agropecuario",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "market_steam",
"signal_label": "Steam",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong multi-book steam",
"steam_tier": "A+",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/9",
"current_odds": 4.5,
"move_display": "\u2193 -18.2%",
"open_odds": 5.5,
"pick_team": "Agropecuario",
"steam_score": 76,
"steam_team_name": "Agropecuario",
"steam_tier": "A+"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "agropecuario",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Agropecuario",
"away_team_id": 462,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/462.webp",
"away_team_name": "Agropecuario",
"away_team_public_id": "36ZMMnKYHAmZOH",
"away_team_slug": "agropecuario",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1498832,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Atlanta",
"home_team_id": 1948,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1948.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atlanta",
"home_team_public_id": "0G0cBnrHHe3pX2",
"home_team_slug": "atlanta",
"ht.home_team_slug": "atlanta",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_id": 129,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/129.webp",
"league_name": "Primera Nacional",
"league_public_id": "1KcpmJJ27Hbo5G",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 18:30:00",
"public_id": "4DUb8EYXyrajP1",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Buenos Aires",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1488,
"best_odd": 4.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.1997,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1997,
"draw": 0.2983,
"home": 0.5019
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.2251
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2989,
"best_odd": 3.18,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0007,
"ev": -0.0535,
"implied_prob": 0.2983,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1997,
"draw": 0.2983,
"home": 0.5019
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2976
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4484,
"best_odd": 1.89,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0755,
"ev": -0.1941,
"implied_prob": 0.5019,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1997,
"draw": 0.2983,
"home": 0.5019
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.4264
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.75,
"edge": 0.16,
"ev": 0.76,
"implied_prob": 0.2105,
"model_prob": 0.3705
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.18,
"edge": -0.0185,
"ev": -0.0588,
"implied_prob": 0.3145,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.89,
"edge": -0.1956,
"ev": -0.3697,
"implied_prob": 0.5291,
"model_prob": 0.3335
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.1976,
"alpha_yes": 0.1437,
"best_no_odd": 1.62,
"best_yes_odd": 2.38,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.1346,
"edge_yes": 0.1346,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.2629,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1219,
"ev_yes": 0.2971,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0371,
"implied_no": 0.5896,
"implied_yes": 0.4104,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1219,
"implied_prob": 0.5895,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5629
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1437,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0371,
"implied_prob": 0.4105,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4298
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.5629,
"p_final_yes": 0.4298,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1481,
"alpha_under": 0.2037,
"best_over_odd": 2.7,
"best_under_odd": 1.47,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.525,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.445,
"edge_over": 0.122,
"edge_under": -0.122,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.3014,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0368,
"ev_under": -0.2385,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.1157,
"implied_over": 0.36,
"implied_over_mf": 0.364,
"implied_under": 0.64,
"implied_under_mf": 0.636,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.525,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3815
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.636,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.612
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.3815,
"p_final_under": 0.612,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3014,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.76,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3014,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 4.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3014,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.76,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 51,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Agropecuario at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 20.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Agropecuario as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 17.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Agropecuario",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Agropecuario \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.23 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +76% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1498832 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.23 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +30.1% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +30.1% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +30.1% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +30.1% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "64 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "51 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+30.1% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 6,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +76% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 64,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model and market favour the same side (Agropecuario), but pricing still diverges by 17.1 pp.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0694,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21052631578947367,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7599,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.0%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.75,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0254,
"ev": 0.0694,
"implied_prob": 0.1997,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Agropecuario"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1437,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0193,
"market_prob": 0.4105,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 1.56,
"edge": -0.0266,
"ev": -0.1219,
"implied_prob": 0.5895,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.5629
},
"p_final": 0.4298,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0371,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1437,
"best_odd": 2.24,
"edge": 0.0193,
"ev": -0.0371,
"implied_prob": 0.4105,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.4298
}
},
"edge": 0.1346,
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4104,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.525,
"edge": 0.0175,
"market_prob": 0.364,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1481,
"best_odd": 2.525,
"edge": 0.0175,
"ev": -0.0368,
"implied_prob": 0.364,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.3815
},
"p_final": 0.3815,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0368,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.2037,
"best_odd": 1.445,
"edge": -0.024,
"ev": -0.1157,
"implied_prob": 0.636,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.612
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.122,
"ev": 0.3014,
"implied_prob": 0.36,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1498832,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3014,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3705,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3335
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3014,
"implied_prob": 0.36,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3014,
"implied_prob": 0.36,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.482,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Agropecuario",
"home": "Atlanta"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.161919,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2971,
"implied_prob": 0.4104,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.545,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0694,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.75,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.1997,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+17.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 17.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.21052631578947367,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7599,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+76.0%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1498832,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T18:29:18.175266+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Atlanta & Agropecuario!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera Nacional — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 61 |
| 2 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | 55 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 53 |
| 4 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 13 | 11 | 7 | 50 |
| 5 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 49 |
| 6 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 46 |
| 7 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 45 |
| 8 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 10 | 12 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Los Andes | 31 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 40 |
| 10 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 11 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 36 |
| 13 | San Telmo | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 34 |
| 14 | All Boys | 31 | 6 | 15 | 10 | 33 |
| 15 | Central Norte | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 16 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 32 |
| 17 | San Miguel | 31 | 6 | 13 | 12 | 31 |
| 18 | Acassuso | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 29 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Morón | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 55 |
| 2 | Deportivo Madryn | 31 | 44 | 28 | +16 | 50 |
| 3 | Godoy Cruz | 31 | 40 | 28 | +12 | 53 |
| 4 | Colón Santa Fe | 31 | 38 | 25 | +13 | 49 |
| 5 | Ferro Carril Oeste | 31 | 36 | 25 | +11 | 61 |
| 6 | CA Estudiantes | 31 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 45 |
| 7 | Chaco For Ever | 31 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 36 |
| 8 | Racing Córdoba | 31 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 | Atlético Mitre | 31 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
| 10 | Ciudad de Bolívar | 31 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 42 |
| 11 | San Telmo | 31 | 25 | 34 | -9 | 34 |
| 12 | San Miguel | 31 | 25 | 36 | -11 | 31 |
| 13 | Los Andes | 31 | 24 | 21 | +3 | 40 |
| 14 | Almirante Brown | 31 | 23 | 18 | +5 | 46 |
| 15 | Defensores de Belgrano | 31 | 23 | 27 | -4 | 36 |
| 16 | Acassuso | 31 | 22 | 34 | -12 | 29 |
| 17 | Central Norte | 31 | 19 | 28 | -9 | 32 |
| 18 | All Boys | 31 | 17 | 26 | -9 | 33 |
