Ramalan / Bola Sepak / Norway. Divisyen 3 - Girone 6 Norway / Brumunddal vs Raelingen

Audit Ramalan: Brumunddal vs Raelingen Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Brumunddal Brumunddal
Aug 15, 2026 - 13:00
2 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 39%
⚽
Raelingen

The model missed the final outcome (Raelingen win 2–4).

The model had projected Brumunddal at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan F

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
  • 1X2 Brumunddal Raelingen ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-4 ✖ tak betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Raelingen higher than the statistical model.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Raelingen -36.2 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Brumunddal 36.1% 13.7% +22.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 15.8% +13.8 pp Model Edge
Raelingen 34.2% 70.5% -36.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Raelingen's win probability at 70.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 36.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Raelingen win 2–4.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Brumunddal; match finished Raelingen

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Brumunddal by 36.2 percentage points (72.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Brumunddal 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Raelingen 34.2%
    • xG · Brumunddal 1.32 — Raelingen 1.28
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Brumunddal 6.55 · Draw 5.65 · Raelingen 1.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Brumunddal 13.7% · Draw 15.8% · Raelingen 70.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Brumunddal 6.55 · Draw 5.65 · Raelingen 1.27
    • Implied 1X2 · Brumunddal 13.7% · Draw 15.8% · Raelingen 70.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Raelingen win · 2–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Cautious / Wait

Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Keputusan Sejarah Wait
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 31/100 · Low
  • Validation: Fail
  • Large market gap (36 pp)
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation failed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:45 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3346770

Closing Odds 1.27
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Raelingen win · Brumunddal 2–4 Raelingen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat perlawanan AI

Ringkasan perlawanan AI

Model favours Brumunddal; market prices Raelingen instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

  • Model: Brumunddal 1.32 xG vs Raelingen 1.28 → Brumunddal 36.1%
  • Market: Raelingen ~13.7% implied
  • Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Lean struktur (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Bawah 2.5 51.8% · Lebih 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (ya 54.5% · Tidak 45.5%) Nilai kurus (harga): O/U 2.5 Bawah 2.5; BTTS ya

Syor Sejarah

Keputusan Sejarah: Wait

Hasil: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Faktor Risiko Dipertimbangkan Sebelum Sepak Mula

  • Pergerakan harga: kebarangkalian tersirat dan pergerakan EV dengan kemungkinan.
  • Jurang sampel / data: liga bermaklumat rendah meluaskan jalur ramalan.
  • Keadaan dalam permainan: gol dan kad merah tidak dimodelkan di sini.
  • Varians garis skor: garis markah yang paling berkemungkinan masih merupakan hasil kebarangkalian mutlak rendah (selalunya di bawah 20%).

Terakhir dikemas kini

September 26, 2026 (UTC)

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang Divisyen 3 - Girone 6 Norway Perlawanan Jejak Brumunddal Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak Raelingen Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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Langgan Sekarang
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Divisyen 3 - Girone 6 Norway Divisyen 3 - Girone 6 Norway — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Lillehammer 19 14 2 3 44
2 Råde 19 12 2 5 38
3 Elverum 19 12 2 5 38
4 Gjøvik-Lyn 19 11 2 6 35
5 Ørn Horten 19 8 5 6 29
6 Lyn II 19 9 2 8 29
7 Raelingen 19 8 4 7 28
8 Oppsal 19 8 3 8 27
9 Drøbak / Frogn 19 7 5 7 26
10 Sandefjord II 19 8 2 9 26
11 Sarpsborg 08 II 19 7 3 9 24
12 Fram 19 6 3 10 21
13 Brumunddal 19 3 3 13 12
14 Bjørkelangen 19 1 0 18 3
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Råde 19 68 34 +34 38
2 Lillehammer 19 67 28 +39 44
3 Elverum 19 49 31 +18 38
4 Sandefjord II 19 47 41 +6 26
5 Lyn II 19 45 44 +1 29
6 Sarpsborg 08 II 19 44 45 -1 24
7 Drøbak / Frogn 19 37 28 +9 26
8 Raelingen 19 37 45 -8 28
9 Ørn Horten 19 36 31 +5 29
10 Fram 19 35 43 -8 21
11 Oppsal 19 33 30 +3 27
12 Gjøvik-Lyn 19 27 14 +13 35
13 Brumunddal 19 23 80 -57 12
14 Bjørkelangen 19 15 69 -54 3
Divisyen 3 - Girone 6 Norway Norway. Divisyen 3 - Girone 6 Norway Ramalan