AI correctly predicted the Kongsvinger II win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Kongsvinger II Kongsvinger II ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kongsvinger II | 36.1% | 26.6% | +9.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 15.8% | +13.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Harstad | 34.2% | 57.6% | -23.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Harstad's win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 23.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Kongsvinger II win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Kongsvinger II higher (59.5% vs model 36.1%, 23.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Kongsvinger II win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kongsvinger II 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Harstad 34.2%
- xG · Kongsvinger II 1.32 — Harstad 1.28
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kongsvinger II 3.34 · Draw 5.61 · Harstad 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · Kongsvinger II 26.6% · Draw 15.8% · Harstad 57.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kongsvinger II 3.34 · Draw 5.61 · Harstad 1.54
- Implied 1X2 · Kongsvinger II 26.6% · Draw 15.8% · Harstad 57.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kongsvinger II win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.54
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Kongsvinger II win · Kongsvinger II 2–1 Harstad
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
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"show": true,
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"status_label": "Use caution",
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"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
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},
{
"key": "steam",
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},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
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],
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"label": "Disagree",
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},
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"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
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"execution_confidence": 17,
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"final_verdict_audit": {
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"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
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"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kongsvinger II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.6%.",
"why": [
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"text": "Decision Model identifies Kongsvinger II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kongsvinger II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
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"codes": [
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"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
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"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0309,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2657,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29940119760479045,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2054,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "6/6",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 55,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (23 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 13.3,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 59,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 23.38,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 23.38,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.28,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.28 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Kongsvinger II",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.015382,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.015382,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kongsvinger II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kongsvinger II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kongsvinger II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0309,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2657,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29940119760479045,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2054,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kongsvinger II 1.32 xG vs Harstad 1.28 \u2192 Kongsvinger II 36.1%",
"Market: Harstad ~26.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Kongsvinger II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Kongsvinger II, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.54,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Kongsvinger II",
"market_prob": 26.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 13.83,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 15.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -23.38,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Harstad",
"market_prob": 57.62,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -33.33,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 81.53,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 33.33,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 18.47,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -20.49,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 74.99,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 20.49,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 25.01,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -23.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Harstad",
"market_prob_pct": 57.62,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Kongsvinger II"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Harstad\u0027s win probability at 57.6%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 23.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 23.38,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Kongsvinger II",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.6,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.5,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 59,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 17,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 18,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Kongsvinger II 1.32 xG vs Harstad 1.28 \u2192 Kongsvinger II 36.1%",
"Market: Harstad ~26.6% implied",
"Market Steam: Kongsvinger II +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Kongsvinger II, but market pricing diverges by 23 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -23.38,
"hero_label": "Harstad",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 23.38,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Harstad",
"largest_gap_pp": -23.4,
"lead": "The closing market prices Harstad higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 23.4,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.54,
"edge_pp": 9.54,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Kongsvinger II",
"market_prob_pct": 26.57,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 13.83,
"edge_pp": 13.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 15.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -23.38,
"edge_pp": -23.38,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Harstad",
"market_prob_pct": 57.62,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Harstad (26.6%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Kongsvinger II, Market \u2192 Harstad, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 64.94,
"closing_odds": 1.54,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 64.94,
"entry_odds": 1.54,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/6",
"current_odds": 3.34,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 3.34,
"pick_team": "Kongsvinger II",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Kongsvinger II",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.4,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "harstad",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Harstad",
"away_team_id": 6994,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/6994.webp",
"away_team_name": "Harstad",
"away_team_public_id": "07x68O1AajKEjG",
"away_team_slug": "harstad",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1497251,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Kongsvinger II",
"home_team_id": 16206,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/16206.webp",
"home_team_name": "Kongsvinger II",
"home_team_public_id": "14q1gRFQvwffFs",
"home_team_slug": "kongsvinger-ii",
"ht.home_team_slug": "kongsvinger-ii",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen 3 - Girone 5 Norway",
"league_id": 778,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/778.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen 3 - Girone 5 Norway",
"league_public_id": "1fYcfB1EQjXj2e",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-27 12:30:00",
"public_id": "4ekzhZn7Kyp53J",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3896,
"best_odd": 1.54,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0911,
"ev": -0.253,
"implied_prob": 0.5762,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5762,
"draw": 0.1582,
"home": 0.2657
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4851
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1584,
"best_odd": 5.61,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0219,
"ev": 0.0104,
"implied_prob": 0.1582,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5762,
"draw": 0.1582,
"home": 0.2657
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.1801
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2571,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.2657,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.5762,
"draw": 0.1582,
"home": 0.2657
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2902
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 1.54,
"edge": -0.307,
"ev": -0.4727,
"implied_prob": 0.6494,
"model_prob": 0.3424
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 5.61,
"edge": 0.1184,
"ev": 0.6643,
"implied_prob": 0.1783,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": 0.0615,
"ev": 0.2055,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.3609
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1716,
"best_no_odd": 3.75,
"best_yes_odd": 1.22,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2049,
"edge_yes": -0.2049,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.7063,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0259,
"ev_yes": -0.3351,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1284,
"implied_no": 0.2501,
"implied_yes": 0.7499,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0259,
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2669
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1716,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.7495,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7144
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2669,
"p_final_yes": 0.7144,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.0866,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.11,
"best_under_odd": 4.9,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.11,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.9,
"edge_over": -0.3333,
"edge_under": 0.3333,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.465,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1271,
"ev_under": 1.5382,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0356,
"implied_over": 0.8153,
"implied_over_mf": 0.8153,
"implied_under": 0.1847,
"implied_under_mf": 0.1847,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0866,
"best_odd": 1.11,
"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1271,
"implied_prob": 0.8153,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7864
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.9,
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": 0.0356,
"implied_prob": 0.1847,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2114
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7864,
"p_final_under": 0.2114,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.5382,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.5382,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.5382,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 23.4,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 23.4,
"summary": "The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.015382,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.015382,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 17,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Kongsvinger II at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.6%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Kongsvinger II as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.5,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Kongsvinger II",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "59 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "17 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 3,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced Kongsvinger II, but the model still strongly favours Kongsvinger II.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 59,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0309,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2657,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29940119760479045,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2054,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0245,
"ev": -0.0309,
"implied_prob": 0.2657,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Kongsvinger II"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0164,
"market_prob": 0.2505,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.0164,
"ev": -0.0259,
"implied_prob": 0.2505,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2669
},
"p_final": 0.2669,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0259,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1716,
"best_odd": 1.22,
"edge": -0.0351,
"ev": -0.1284,
"implied_prob": 0.7495,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7144
}
},
"edge": 0.2049,
"ev": 0.7063,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2501,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.9,
"edge": 0.0267,
"market_prob": 0.1847,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0866,
"best_odd": 1.11,
"edge": -0.0289,
"ev": -0.1271,
"implied_prob": 0.8153,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7864
},
"p_final": 0.2114,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0356,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.9,
"edge": 0.0267,
"ev": 0.0356,
"implied_prob": 0.1847,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.2114
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3333,
"ev": 1.5382,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.1847,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1497251,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.5382,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3424,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3609
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7063,
"implied_prob": 0.2501,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7063,
"implied_prob": 0.2501,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Harstad",
"home": "Kongsvinger II"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.490821,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.5382,
"implied_prob": 0.1847,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0309,
"consensus_ev_display": "-3.1%",
"consensus_odds": 3.34,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2657,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.5 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.5,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.29940119760479045,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2054,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+20.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1497251,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-27T12:29:16.398094+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 3 - Girone 5 Norway — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skedsmo | 21 | 16 | 1 | 4 | 49 |
| 2 | Harstad | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 39 |
| 3 | Fløya | 21 | 12 | 3 | 6 | 39 |
| 4 | Alta | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 39 |
| 5 | Finnsnes | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 33 |
| 7 | Fauske Sprint | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 31 |
| 8 | Lillestrøm II | 21 | 9 | 0 | 12 | 27 |
| 9 | Kongsvinger II | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 10 | Skjervøy | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| 11 | Tromsø II | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 12 | Strømsgodset II | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 |
| 14 | Ulfstind | 21 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillestrøm II | 21 | 68 | 53 | +15 | 27 |
| 2 | Harstad | 21 | 67 | 33 | +34 | 39 |
| 3 | Fauske Sprint | 21 | 58 | 68 | -10 | 31 |
| 4 | Fløya | 21 | 56 | 33 | +23 | 39 |
| 5 | Alta | 21 | 54 | 31 | +23 | 39 |
| 6 | Skjetten | 21 | 52 | 42 | +10 | 33 |
| 7 | Skedsmo | 21 | 50 | 25 | +25 | 49 |
| 8 | Strømsgodset II | 21 | 41 | 48 | -7 | 23 |
| 9 | Tromsø II | 21 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 23 |
| 10 | Finnsnes | 21 | 39 | 34 | +5 | 35 |
| 11 | Kongsvinger II | 21 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Ulfstind | 21 | 36 | 77 | -41 | 14 |
| 13 | Bossekop | 21 | 34 | 70 | -36 | 19 |
| 14 | Skjervøy | 21 | 33 | 56 | -23 | 24 |
