The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Viking II at 39.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Viking II Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stabæk II | 33.8% | 31.9% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 26.6% | 19.6% | +7.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Viking II | 39.6% | 48.5% | -8.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Viking II's win probability at 48.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.6%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Viking II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Viking II; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Viking II by 8.8 percentage points (48.4% vs model 39.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 21:28 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stabæk II 33.8% · Draw 26.6% · Viking II 39.7%
- xG · Stabæk II 1.29 — Viking II 1.31
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 2.78 · Draw 4.52 · Viking II 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 31.9% · Draw 19.6% · Viking II 48.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 13:51 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Stabæk II 2.78 · Draw 4.52 · Viking II 1.83
- Implied 1X2 · Stabæk II 31.9% · Draw 19.6% · Viking II 48.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Stabæk II & Viking II!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 3 - Girone 4 Norway — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 21 | 13 | 6 | 2 | 45 |
| 2 | Mandalskameratene | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 40 |
| 3 | Vindbjart | 21 | 12 | 2 | 7 | 38 |
| 4 | Varhaug | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 36 |
| 5 | Flekkerøy | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 36 |
| 6 | Viking II | 21 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 32 |
| 7 | Brodd | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 8 | Stabæk II | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 27 |
| 9 | Våg | 21 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 26 |
| 10 | Staal Jørpeland | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 11 | Odd II | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 12 | Haugesund II | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 13 | Hinna | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 20 |
| 14 | Åkra | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 15 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Madla | 21 | 57 | 26 | +31 | 45 |
| 2 | Viking II | 21 | 51 | 30 | +21 | 32 |
| 3 | Mandalskameratene | 21 | 50 | 33 | +17 | 40 |
| 4 | Vindbjart | 21 | 49 | 24 | +25 | 38 |
| 5 | Flekkerøy | 21 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 36 |
| 6 | Stabæk II | 21 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 27 |
| 7 | Staal Jørpeland | 21 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 23 |
| 8 | Varhaug | 21 | 40 | 30 | +10 | 36 |
| 9 | Brodd | 21 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 27 |
| 10 | Haugesund II | 20 | 37 | 55 | -18 | 22 |
| 11 | Odd II | 21 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 23 |
| 12 | Hinna | 20 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 20 |
| 13 | Våg | 21 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 26 |
| 14 | Åkra | 21 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 15 |
