The model missed the final outcome (Nardo win 2–5).
The model had projected NTNUI at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 NTNUI Nardo ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-5 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NTNUI | 37.1% | 34.9% | +2.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.0% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Nardo | 33.3% | 43.1% | -9.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Nardo's win probability at 43.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Nardo win 2–5.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Nardo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on NTNUI by 9.8 percentage points (46.9% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · NTNUI 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Nardo 33.4%
- xG · NTNUI 1.34 — Nardo 1.26
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · NTNUI 2.56 · Draw 4.05 · Nardo 2.07
- Implied 1X2 · NTNUI 34.9% · Draw 22.0% · Nardo 43.1%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 11:55 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · NTNUI 2.56 · Draw 4.05 · Nardo 2.07
- Implied 1X2 · NTNUI 34.9% · Draw 22.0% · Nardo 43.1%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Nardo win · 2–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
33/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.07
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Nardo win · NTNUI 2–5 Nardo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
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"ev_yes_display": {
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"text": "-34.1%"
},
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},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.0832,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -8.3,
"text": "-8.3%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"max_ev": -0.0533,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "-5.3%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
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"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "NTNUI",
"sort_key": 1786.675,
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},
{
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.8,
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"market_prob_pct": 34.9,
"market_team": "Nardo",
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"model_team": "NTNUI",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010098000000000001,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010098000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NTNUI at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NTNUI as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NTNUI",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0832,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3486,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0515,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "4/4",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 75,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 82,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.8,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.26,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.34,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.34,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.34 \u00b7 Away xG 1.26 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "NTNUI",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010098000000000001,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010098000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NTNUI at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NTNUI as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NTNUI",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0832,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3486,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0515,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: NTNUI 1.34 xG vs Nardo 1.26 \u2192 NTNUI 37.1%",
"Market: Nardo ~34.9% implied",
"Market Steam: NTNUI +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean NTNUI with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"fair_prob": 37.06,
"label": "NTNUI",
"market_prob": 34.86,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.6,
"fair_prob": 29.63,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.03,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.8,
"fair_prob": 33.31,
"label": "Nardo",
"market_prob": 43.11,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.48,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 76.68,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 28.48,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 23.32,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.46,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 75.96,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.46,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 24.04,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -9.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Nardo",
"market_prob_pct": 43.11,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "NTNUI"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE5",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Nardo\u0027s win probability at 43.1%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "NTNUI",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.9,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 2.2,
"model_prob_pct": 37.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 82,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 37,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 31,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: NTNUI 1.34 xG vs Nardo 1.26 \u2192 NTNUI 37.1%",
"Market: Nardo ~34.9% implied",
"Market Steam: NTNUI +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean NTNUI with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -9.8,
"hero_label": "Nardo",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, NTNUI has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Nardo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on NTNUI.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Nardo. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, NTNUI has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market activity is currently concentrated on NTNUI."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Nardo above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, NTNUI has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 0.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (4/4) supports the current market view on NTNUI."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 3.8 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 3.8,
"max_prob_pct": 37.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Nardo",
"largest_gap_pp": -9.8,
"lead": "The closing market prices Nardo higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 2.2,
"edge_pp": 2.2,
"fair_prob_pct": 37.06,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "NTNUI",
"market_prob_pct": 34.86,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.6,
"edge_pp": 7.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.63,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.03,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.8,
"edge_pp": -9.8,
"fair_prob_pct": 33.31,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Nardo",
"market_prob_pct": 43.11,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity is currently concentrated on NTNUI.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Nardo (34.9%).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 NTNUI, Market \u2192 Nardo, Recent sharp money \u2192 recent line movement.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.31,
"closing_odds": 2.07,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.31,
"entry_odds": 2.07,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE5",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/4",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.62,
"pick_team": "NTNUI",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "NTNUI",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "nardo",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Nardo",
"away_team_id": 7014,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7014.webp",
"away_team_name": "Nardo",
"away_team_public_id": "53iZaV3ibKnd0V",
"away_team_slug": "nardo",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1496705,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "NTNUI",
"home_team_id": 7013,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7013.webp",
"home_team_name": "NTNUI",
"home_team_public_id": "07qVLG249bLU4Q",
"home_team_slug": "ntnui",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ntnui",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen 3 - Girone 2 Norway",
"league_id": 775,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/775.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen 3 - Girone 2 Norway",
"league_public_id": "41U61Qop1dbVrI",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-26 12:00:00",
"public_id": "1rjb99f3F2EnNM",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_ou"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for O/U odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 5.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3841,
"best_odd": 2.07,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0375,
"ev": -0.1853,
"implied_prob": 0.4311,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4311,
"draw": 0.2203,
"home": 0.3486
},
"model_prob": 0.3335,
"p_final": 0.3936
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1773,
"best_odd": 4.05,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0134,
"ev": -0.0533,
"implied_prob": 0.2203,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4311,
"draw": 0.2203,
"home": 0.3486
},
"model_prob": 0.296,
"p_final": 0.2337
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4352,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0832,
"implied_prob": 0.3486,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4311,
"draw": 0.2203,
"home": 0.3486
},
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"p_final": 0.3581
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.07,
"edge": -0.1496,
"ev": -0.3097,
"implied_prob": 0.4831,
"model_prob": 0.3335
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.05,
"edge": 0.0491,
"ev": 0.1988,
"implied_prob": 0.2469,
"model_prob": 0.296
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0201,
"ev": -0.0514,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.3705
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.1686,
"best_no_odd": 4.0,
"best_yes_odd": 1.21,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2146,
"edge_yes": -0.2146,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.82,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0191,
"ev_yes": -0.3406,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1268,
"implied_no": 0.2404,
"implied_yes": 0.7596,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0191,
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2595
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.0358,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.7575,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7217
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"p_final_no": 0.2595,
"p_final_yes": 0.7217,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.0992,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.18,
"best_under_odd": 3.88,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.18,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.88,
"edge_over": -0.2848,
"edge_under": 0.2848,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4312,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1285,
"ev_under": 1.0098,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0068,
"implied_over": 0.7668,
"implied_over_mf": 0.7668,
"implied_under": 0.2332,
"implied_under_mf": 0.2332,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0992,
"best_odd": 1.18,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1285,
"implied_prob": 0.7668,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7385
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.88,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.2332,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.256
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.7385,
"p_final_under": 0.256,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.0098,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.0098,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.0098,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.8
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.010098000000000001,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.010098000000000001,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.8,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates NTNUI at 37.0%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 34.9%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies NTNUI as the value side (37.0%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 2.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "NTNUI",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "probability_gap",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.0% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.0% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.0% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "82 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.0% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 82,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has repriced NTNUI, but the model still strongly favours NTNUI.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0832,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3486,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0515,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.1%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -0.7,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.08 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.08
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.296,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3705,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.08
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0096,
"ev": -0.0832,
"implied_prob": 0.3486,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "NTNUI"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.78,
"edge": 0.017,
"market_prob": 0.2425,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.78,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0191,
"implied_prob": 0.2425,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2595
},
"p_final": 0.2595,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0191,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 1.21,
"edge": -0.0358,
"ev": -0.1268,
"implied_prob": 0.7575,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7217
}
},
"edge": 0.2146,
"ev": 0.82,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.88,
"edge": 0.0228,
"market_prob": 0.2332,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 2,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.0992,
"best_odd": 1.18,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1285,
"implied_prob": 0.7668,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.7385
},
"p_final": 0.256,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0068,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.88,
"edge": 0.0228,
"ev": -0.0068,
"implied_prob": 0.2332,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.256
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2848,
"ev": 1.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.2332,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1496705,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.0098,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3335,
"draw": 0.296,
"home": 0.3705
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.2332,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.0098,
"implied_prob": 0.2332,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Nardo",
"home": "NTNUI"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.3731,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.82,
"implied_prob": 0.2404,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.0832,
"consensus_ev_display": "-8.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.56,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.3486,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3705,
"raw_edge_display": "+2.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 2.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.390625,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.0515,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-5.1%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1496705,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-26T11:55:38.274599+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 3 - Girone 2 Norway — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volda | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 46 |
| 2 | Strindheim | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 |
| 3 | Melhus | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 35 |
| 4 | Byåsen | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 34 |
| 5 | Rosenborg II | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 31 |
| 6 | Herd | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29 |
| 7 | Molde II | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 29 |
| 8 | Spjelkavik | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 28 |
| 9 | Nardo | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 26 |
| 10 | Ranheim II | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 23 |
| 11 | NTNUI | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 22 |
| 12 | Kvik Trondheim | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 22 |
| 13 | Orkla | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 20 |
| 14 | Aalesund II | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strindheim | 21 | 57 | 30 | +27 | 43 |
| 2 | Volda | 21 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 46 |
| 3 | Molde II | 21 | 55 | 67 | -12 | 29 |
| 4 | Ranheim II | 21 | 53 | 69 | -16 | 23 |
| 5 | Rosenborg II | 21 | 49 | 36 | +13 | 31 |
| 6 | Melhus | 21 | 48 | 27 | +21 | 35 |
| 7 | Byåsen | 21 | 47 | 39 | +8 | 34 |
| 8 | Nardo | 20 | 47 | 45 | +2 | 26 |
| 9 | Herd | 21 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 29 |
| 10 | Spjelkavik | 21 | 39 | 43 | -4 | 28 |
| 11 | Orkla | 21 | 39 | 58 | -19 | 20 |
| 12 | Aalesund II | 20 | 37 | 59 | -22 | 20 |
| 13 | NTNUI | 21 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 22 |
| 14 | Kvik Trondheim | 21 | 31 | 52 | -21 | 22 |
