AI correctly predicted the Ullern win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Ullern Ullern ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ullern | 35.6% | 43.8% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 22.5% | +7.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Vålerenga II | 34.7% | 33.7% | +1.0 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates Ullern's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Ullern win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Ullern. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Ullern higher (43.8% vs model 35.6%, 8.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Ullern win 2–1).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ullern 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Vålerenga II 34.7%
- xG · Ullern 1.31 — Vålerenga II 1.29
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ullern 2.03 · Draw 3.95 · Vålerenga II 2.64
- Implied 1X2 · Ullern 43.8% · Draw 22.5% · Vålerenga II 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 10:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ullern 2.03 · Draw 3.95 · Vålerenga II 2.64
- Implied 1X2 · Ullern 43.8% · Draw 22.5% · Vålerenga II 33.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ullern win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
59/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.03
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Ullern win · Ullern 2–1 Vålerenga II
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "969858fc38fe5a6f71deeeb8920912f5d89e558c0534b64922380edf0895397e",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.29,
"away_win_prob": 0.347,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.546,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.88,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.81,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"home_win_prob": 0.3564,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : draw or V\u00e5lerenga II and +2.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "V\u00e5lerenga II"
},
"away_xg": 1.29,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Ullern",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0821,
"edge_gap": 0.0087,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.438,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 34.7,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 35.6
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.03
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.03,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Ullern Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Home",
"market_fair_odds": 2.28,
"market_odds": 2.03,
"model_odds": 2.81,
"overround": 12.5,
"prob_edge": -13.7,
"value_pct": -27.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 1,
"away_failed_to_score": 0,
"away_played": 19,
"away_score_rate": 72.5,
"home_clean_sheet": 0,
"home_failed_to_score": 2,
"home_played": 19,
"home_score_rate": 73.0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.29,
"home_expected": 1.31,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ullern or Draw",
"prob": 65.2
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ullern or V\u00e5lerenga II",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or V\u00e5lerenga II",
"prob": 64.3
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Ullern or V\u00e5lerenga II",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.7,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 35.6,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Ullern"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+2.5",
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 2.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.9,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 16.9,
"implied_prob": 25.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
"odds": 3.95
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "V\u00e5lerenga II",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.68,
"draw": 22.51,
"home": 43.8
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 10:59:27",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-19 10:29:43",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Ullern",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.8,
"gap_pp": -8.21,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 35.59
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.51,
"gap_pp": 7.17,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.68,
"gap_pp": 1.05,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.73
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.03,
"early": 2.03,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.8,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 43.8,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.95,
"early": 3.95,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.51,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.51,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.64,
"early": 2.64,
"implied_closing_pct": 33.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 33.68,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 7.2,
"kind": "1x2_d"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 5.9,
"ev": 0.89,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 15.0,
"market_prob": 0.0667,
"market_prob_pct": 6.7,
"model_prob": 0.126,
"model_prob_pct": 12.6,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.6
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.1
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.31,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.75,
"edge": 0.0262,
"edge_pp": 2.6,
"market_prob": 0.1908,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.126,
"best_odd": 1.12,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1399,
"implied_prob": 0.8092,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.768
},
"p_final": 0.217,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 32.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.4605,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0306,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.75,
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": 0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.1908,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.217
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4361,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -43.6,
"text": "-43.6%"
},
"ev_under": 1.4605,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 146.0,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 1.4605,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 11464.45,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.44,
"edge": 0.0199,
"edge_pp": 2.0,
"market_prob": 0.2057,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.44,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.002,
"implied_prob": 0.2057,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2257
},
"p_final": 0.2257,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 24.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 1.0202,
"risk_adj_ev": 0.002,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 1.15,
"edge": -0.0386,
"ev": -0.131,
"implied_prob": 0.7943,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7556
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 1.093,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 109.3,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.3569,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -35.7,
"text": "-35.7%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 1.093,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10983.7,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1765,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -17.6,
"text": "-17.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.035,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -3.5,
"text": "-3.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Ullern",
"sort_key": 1791.25,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.8,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.6
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "5/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "5/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"alert_team": "Ullern",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 8.2,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.16,
"hero_label": "Ullern",
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"market_team": "Ullern",
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"model_team": "Ullern",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.014605,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.014605,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ullern at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ullern as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ullern",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1765,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "5/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.625,
"evidence": {
"score": 68,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.9,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 74,
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 8.16,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.16,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.29,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.31,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.31,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.31 \u00b7 Away xG 1.29 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -3%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"steam_team": "Ullern",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.014605,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.014605,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ullern at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ullern as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ullern",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1765,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ullern 1.31 xG vs V\u00e5lerenga II 1.29 \u2192 Ullern 35.6%",
"Market: Ullern ~43.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Ullern odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ullern, but the market has moved away from Ullern.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -8.16,
"fair_prob": 35.64,
"label": "Ullern",
"market_prob": 43.8,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 7.14,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 22.51,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.02,
"fair_prob": 34.7,
"label": "V\u00e5lerenga II",
"market_prob": 33.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -32.21,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 80.41,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 32.21,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 19.59,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -24.75,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 79.25,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 24.75,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 20.75,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -8.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Ullern",
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Ullern"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Ullern\u0027s win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 8.16,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Ullern",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -8.2,
"model_prob_pct": 35.6,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -8.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 74,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 33,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 35,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Ullern 1.31 xG vs V\u00e5lerenga II 1.29 \u2192 Ullern 35.6%",
"Market: Ullern ~43.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Ullern odds \u2191 +11.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Ullern, but the market has moved away from Ullern.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -8.16,
"hero_label": "Ullern",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Ullern odds lengthened \u2191 +11.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Ullern. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ullern.",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Ullern. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ullern."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Ullern above the current fair estimate.",
"Recent line movement on Ullern (\u2191 +11.1%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 8.16,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 0.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 0.9,
"max_prob_pct": 35.6,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Ullern",
"largest_gap_pp": -8.2,
"lead": "The closing market prices Ullern higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 8.2,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -8.16,
"edge_pp": -8.16,
"fair_prob_pct": 35.64,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Ullern",
"market_prob_pct": 43.8,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 7.14,
"edge_pp": 7.14,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 22.51,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.02,
"edge_pp": 1.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.7,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "V\u00e5lerenga II",
"market_prob_pct": 33.68,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Ullern.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Ullern (43.8%).",
"However, Ullern has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +11.1%, 5/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Ullern, Market \u2192 Ullern, while Ullern odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 49.26,
"closing_odds": 2.03,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 49.26,
"entry_odds": 2.03,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 5,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +15.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 15.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 11.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 8h 2m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Ullern (11.1%, 5/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.03",
"1.92",
"1.80"
],
"display": "2.03 \u2192 1.69 \u2192 2.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\u2194",
"move_speed_label": "Gradual move over 8h 2m",
"pick_team": "Ullern",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.03"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "1.69"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
1.8,
2.03,
2.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,2.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "1.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.03"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 1.8,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 5/8 sportsbooks on Ullern",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Ullern",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"summary": "Market moved away from Ullern while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Ullern",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "5/8",
"current_odds": 2.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +11.1%",
"open_odds": 1.8,
"pick_team": "Ullern",
"steam_score": 51,
"steam_team_name": "Ullern",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 8.2,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "valerenga-ii",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "V\u00e5lerenga II",
"away_team_id": 10114,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/10114.webp",
"away_team_name": "V\u00e5lerenga II",
"away_team_public_id": "4nAg0P4j1hgiAR",
"away_team_slug": "valerenga-ii",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1496518,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Ullern",
"home_team_id": 7042,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7042.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ullern",
"home_team_public_id": "1jrMklgKDSBqNo",
"home_team_slug": "ullern",
"ht.home_team_slug": "ullern",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen 3 - Girone 1 Norway",
"league_id": 774,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/774.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen 3 - Girone 1 Norway",
"league_public_id": "1A5BEbNuUzwfEo",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-19 11:00:00",
"public_id": "0Vd4hbLOUepzz8",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4429,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0046,
"ev": -0.0985,
"implied_prob": 0.3368,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3368,
"draw": 0.2251,
"home": 0.438
},
"model_prob": 0.3473,
"p_final": 0.3415
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2678,
"best_odd": 3.95,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0192,
"ev": -0.035,
"implied_prob": 0.2251,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3368,
"draw": 0.2251,
"home": 0.438
},
"model_prob": 0.2968,
"p_final": 0.2443
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3946,
"best_odd": 2.03,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1765,
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3368,
"draw": 0.2251,
"home": 0.438
},
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"p_final": 0.4056
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.64,
"edge": -0.0315,
"ev": -0.0832,
"implied_prob": 0.3788,
"model_prob": 0.3473
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.95,
"edge": 0.0436,
"ev": 0.1723,
"implied_prob": 0.2532,
"model_prob": 0.2968
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.03,
"edge": -0.1367,
"ev": -0.2775,
"implied_prob": 0.4926,
"model_prob": 0.3559
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.08,
"alpha_yes": 0.155,
"best_no_odd": 4.6,
"best_yes_odd": 1.18,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.2475,
"edge_yes": -0.2475,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 1.093,
"ev_no_risk_adj": 0.002,
"ev_yes": -0.3569,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.131,
"implied_no": 0.2075,
"implied_yes": 0.7925,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.44,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.002,
"implied_prob": 0.2057,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2257
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 1.15,
"edge": -0.0386,
"ev": -0.131,
"implied_prob": 0.7943,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7556
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"p_final_no": 0.2257,
"p_final_yes": 0.7556,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.126,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.17,
"best_under_odd": 4.75,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.12,
"consensus_under_odd": 4.75,
"edge_over": -0.3221,
"edge_under": 0.3221,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4361,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1399,
"ev_under": 1.4605,
"ev_under_risk_adj": 0.0306,
"implied_over": 0.8041,
"implied_over_mf": 0.8092,
"implied_under": 0.1959,
"implied_under_mf": 0.1908,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.126,
"best_odd": 1.12,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1399,
"implied_prob": 0.8092,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.768
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.75,
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": 0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.1908,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.217
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.768,
"p_final_under": 0.217,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 1.4605,
"best_outlier_ev": 1.4605,
"best_tracked_ev": 1.4605,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.5,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.5
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 8.2,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.014605,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.014605,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.5,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 33,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Ullern at 35.6%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 43.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Ullern as the value side (35.6%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Edge does not clear Primary threshold",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 8.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Ullern",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"edge_low",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "weak_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +1.5% \u003c Primary gate +5.0% (Lean gate +2.0% is separate \u2014 not Primary)",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Execution confidence below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +1.5% \u274c (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +1.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "74 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "33 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": false,
"value": "+1.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Execution confidence below 65"
],
"reliability_score": 74,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Ullern, but the model still strongly favours Ullern.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1765,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -3.0,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.02 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.02
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2968,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3559,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.02
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0324,
"ev": -0.1765,
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Ullern"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.44,
"edge": 0.0199,
"market_prob": 0.2057,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.44,
"edge": 0.0199,
"ev": 0.002,
"implied_prob": 0.2057,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.2257
},
"p_final": 0.2257,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.002,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.155,
"best_odd": 1.15,
"edge": -0.0386,
"ev": -0.131,
"implied_prob": 0.7943,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.7556
}
},
"edge": 0.2475,
"ev": 1.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2075,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 4.75,
"edge": 0.0262,
"market_prob": 0.1908,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.126,
"best_odd": 1.12,
"edge": -0.0412,
"ev": -0.1399,
"implied_prob": 0.8092,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.768
},
"p_final": 0.217,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": 0.0306,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 4.75,
"edge": 0.0262,
"ev": 0.0306,
"implied_prob": 0.1908,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.217
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.3221,
"ev": 1.4605,
"implied_prob": 0.1959,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1496518,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 1.4605,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3473,
"draw": 0.2968,
"home": 0.3559
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2075,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.093,
"implied_prob": 0.2075,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "V\u00e5lerenga II",
"home": "Ullern"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.529577,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 1.4605,
"implied_prob": 0.1959,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1765,
"consensus_ev_display": "-17.6%",
"consensus_odds": 2.03,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.438,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3559,
"raw_edge_display": "-8.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -8.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4926108374384237,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.2775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-27.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1496518,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-19T10:59:28.817984+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Ullern & Vålerenga II!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 3 - Girone 1 Norway — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asker | 20 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 55 |
| 2 | Heming | 21 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 42 |
| 3 | Gamle Oslo | 21 | 13 | 1 | 7 | 40 |
| 4 | Bærum | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 |
| 5 | Vålerenga II | 21 | 11 | 1 | 9 | 34 |
| 6 | IF Ready | 21 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 33 |
| 7 | Frigg | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 |
| 8 | Union Carl Berner | 20 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 31 |
| 9 | KFUM II | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 23 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Oslo | 21 | 7 | 2 | 12 | 23 |
| 11 | Nordstrand | 21 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 12 | Ullern | 21 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 13 | Konnerud | 21 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 16 |
| 14 | SF Grei | 21 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 16 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Asker | 20 | 71 | 25 | +46 | 55 |
| 2 | Gamle Oslo | 21 | 68 | 41 | +27 | 40 |
| 3 | Bærum | 21 | 61 | 39 | +22 | 35 |
| 4 | Heming | 21 | 53 | 31 | +22 | 42 |
| 5 | IF Ready | 21 | 53 | 42 | +11 | 33 |
| 6 | Frigg | 20 | 49 | 44 | +5 | 32 |
| 7 | Vålerenga II | 21 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 34 |
| 8 | KFUM II | 20 | 41 | 58 | -17 | 23 |
| 9 | Ullern | 21 | 39 | 57 | -18 | 20 |
| 10 | Lokomotiv Oslo | 21 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 23 |
| 11 | Nordstrand | 21 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 20 |
| 12 | SF Grei | 21 | 36 | 69 | -33 | 16 |
| 13 | Union Carl Berner | 20 | 35 | 30 | +5 | 31 |
| 14 | Konnerud | 21 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 16 |
