The model missed the final outcome (Junkeren win 1–2).
The model had projected Trygg/Lade at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Trygg/Lade Junkeren ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Junkeren win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Trygg/Lade 1.37 — Junkeren 1.23
-
Oct 04, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Junkeren win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Junkeren win · Trygg/Lade 1–2 Junkeren
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
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"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Junkeren",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Junkeren"
},
"away_xg": 1.23,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
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"edge": -0.0192,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
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],
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"overround": 9.1,
"prob_edge": -5.6,
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"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_played": 21,
"away_score_rate": 70.8,
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"home_played": 21,
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"no_prob": 45.6,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.4,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.23,
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"scores": [
{
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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},
{
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},
{
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"prob": 8.6
},
{
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}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"key": "1X",
"label": "Trygg/Lade or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Trygg/Lade or Junkeren",
"prob": 70.4
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Junkeren",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
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"pick_prob": 70.4
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 38.5,
"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
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"confidence": "low",
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 14.0,
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 29.6,
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.81,
"draw": 23.81,
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},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 13:59:49",
"closing_source": "apis_closing_odds",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-10-04 13:31:24",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Trygg/Lade",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
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{
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"gap_pp": -1.92,
"kind": "1x2_h",
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},
{
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"model_pct": 29.59
},
{
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}
],
"movement": [
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},
{
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},
{
"closing": 2.56,
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}
],
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}
},
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"lean_card": {
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},
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"top5": [
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
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},
{
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}
]
},
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"over": {
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},
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"under": {
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},
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},
"ev_available": true,
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"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -34.4,
"text": "-34.4%"
},
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"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 65.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 6,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
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"consensus_odds": 2.985,
"edge": 0.0211,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3042,
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"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
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"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.029,
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},
"p_final": 0.3253,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
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"risk_adj_ev": -0.029,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1911,
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"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1298,
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}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5048,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 50.5,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"ev_yes": -0.2602,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.0,
"text": "-26.0%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.5048,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.6,
"sort_key": 10454.32,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.4
},
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"ev": -0.1024,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -10.2,
"text": "-10.2%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": -0.0224,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.2,
"text": "-2.2%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.9,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.127,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Trygg/Lade",
"sort_key": 1794.4,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "4/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "4/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 5.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.76,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 40.4,
"market_team": "Trygg/Lade",
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"model_team": "Trygg/Lade",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trygg/Lade)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trygg/Lade)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trygg/Lade at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trygg/Lade as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trygg/Lade",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trygg/Lade).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.127,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "4/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5,
"evidence": {
"score": 88,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees with model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 22.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.0,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 5.76,
"market_agreement": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 5.76,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.23,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 1.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.37,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.37,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.37 \u00b7 Away xG 1.23 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +1%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trygg/Lade).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trygg/Lade)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trygg/Lade)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trygg/Lade at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trygg/Lade as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trygg/Lade",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trygg/Lade).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.127,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Trygg/Lade 1.37 xG vs Junkeren 1.23 \u2192 Trygg/Lade 38.5%",
"Market: Trygg/Lade ~40.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Trygg/Lade with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -1.89,
"fair_prob": 38.49,
"label": "Trygg/Lade",
"market_prob": 40.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob": 29.57,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -3.87,
"fair_prob": 31.94,
"label": "Junkeren",
"market_prob": 35.81,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -21.17,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 69.37,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.17,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 30.63,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -15.45,
"fair_prob": 54.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 69.85,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.45,
"fair_prob": 45.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 30.15,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"hero_side": "draw",
"hero_team_name": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.81,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Draw\u0027s win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.8%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 5.76,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Trygg/Lade",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 40.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -1.9,
"model_prob_pct": 38.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -1.9,
"label": "High",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_high"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Trygg/Lade \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 38,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Market Compatibility",
"note": "Price proximity vs model (inverse of pp gap) \u2014 not the same as a Primary go-ahead. Read alongside Decision Strength and Alignment.",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Trygg/Lade 1.37 xG vs Junkeren 1.23 \u2192 Trygg/Lade 38.5%",
"Market: Trygg/Lade ~40.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Trygg/Lade with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 5.76,
"hero_label": "Draw",
"hero_side": "draw",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.3%.",
"market_agreement": "strong",
"market_agreement_label": "Strong",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Draw.",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Draw."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Draw.",
"Recent line movement on Draw (\u2191 +5.3%) aligns with the pricing gap."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 5.76,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 6.6 pp (at 38.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 6.6,
"max_prob_pct": 38.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Draw",
"largest_gap_pp": 5.8,
"lead": "The model rates Draw considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 5.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -1.89,
"edge_pp": -1.89,
"fair_prob_pct": 38.49,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Trygg/Lade",
"market_prob_pct": 40.38,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 5.76,
"edge_pp": 5.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.57,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.81,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -3.87,
"edge_pp": -3.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 31.94,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Junkeren",
"market_prob_pct": 35.81,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Draw.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Trygg/Lade (40.4%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.3%, 4/8) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Trygg/Lade \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.97,
"closing_odds": 3.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.97,
"entry_odds": 3.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 4,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.4
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 4.38 \u2192 3.74 \u2192 4.00) \u2014 net 5.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.00",
"3.90",
"3.80"
],
"display": "4.38 \u2192 3.74 \u2192 4.00",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 15h 49m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.38"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.74"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.8,
3.85,
4.0
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,13.5 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.80"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.00"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.00"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.8,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.0,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "4/8",
"current_odds": 4.0,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"open_odds": 3.8,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 31,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 5.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "junkeren",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Junkeren",
"away_team_id": 7000,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/7000.webp",
"away_team_name": "Junkeren",
"away_team_public_id": "0USFmjRdIiuWrR",
"away_team_slug": "junkeren",
"country_code": "NO",
"country_display_name": "Norway",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/no.svg",
"country_id": 120,
"country_name": "Norway",
"fixture_id": 1496349,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Norway",
"home_team_display_name": "Trygg/Lade",
"home_team_id": 7039,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/7039.webp",
"home_team_name": "Trygg/Lade",
"home_team_public_id": "4v8IxBLNRNBZ76",
"home_team_slug": "trygg-lade",
"ht.home_team_slug": "trygg-lade",
"league_country": "Norway",
"league_country_display": "Norway",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen 2 - Kumpulan 2 Norway",
"league_id": 474,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/474.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen 2 - Kumpulan 2 Norway",
"league_public_id": "3xMwFDaJUU2RBu",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-10-04 14:00:00",
"public_id": "447q5GzVMeqj8O",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.424,
"best_odd": 2.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.1252,
"implied_prob": 0.3581,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3581,
"draw": 0.2381,
"home": 0.4038
},
"model_prob": 0.3195,
"p_final": 0.3417
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.274,
"best_odd": 3.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0158,
"ev": -0.0224,
"implied_prob": 0.2381,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3581,
"draw": 0.2381,
"home": 0.4038
},
"model_prob": 0.2959,
"p_final": 0.2539
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.437,
"best_odd": 2.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.1024,
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3581,
"draw": 0.2381,
"home": 0.4038
},
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"p_final": 0.3954
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.56,
"edge": -0.0711,
"ev": -0.1821,
"implied_prob": 0.3906,
"model_prob": 0.3195
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.85,
"edge": 0.0361,
"ev": 0.1391,
"implied_prob": 0.2597,
"model_prob": 0.2959
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.27,
"edge": -0.0559,
"ev": -0.1269,
"implied_prob": 0.4405,
"model_prob": 0.3846
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.139,
"alpha_yes": 0.1911,
"best_no_odd": 3.3,
"best_yes_odd": 1.36,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.1545,
"edge_yes": -0.1545,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.5048,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.029,
"ev_yes": -0.2602,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1298,
"implied_no": 0.3015,
"implied_yes": 0.6985,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"best_odd": 2.985,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.3042,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3253
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1911,
"best_odd": 1.305,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6958,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6668
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3253,
"p_final_yes": 0.6668,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.1686,
"alpha_under": 0.08,
"best_over_odd": 1.36,
"best_under_odd": 3.2,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.32,
"consensus_under_odd": 3.0,
"edge_over": -0.2117,
"edge_under": 0.2117,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.3445,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1306,
"ev_under": 0.6576,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0323,
"implied_over": 0.6937,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6944,
"implied_under": 0.3063,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3056,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0358,
"ev": -0.1306,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6586
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0323,
"implied_prob": 0.3056,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3226
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6586,
"p_final_under": 0.3226,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_v1_legacy": 6.5,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.9,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 6.9,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.9
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 5.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 5.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trygg/Lade)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.6576,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.6576,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.9,
"decision_strength_v1": 6.5,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.9,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Trygg/Lade at 38.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 40.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Trygg/Lade as the value side (38.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 1.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Trygg/Lade",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": false,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +65.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.9/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +65.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.9/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+65.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Trygg/Lade).",
"Decision strength: 6.9/10"
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.127,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 1.5,
"reasons": [
"Thin xG separation gap=0.14"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "low",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": -10,
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"xg_gap": 0.14
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.544,
"draw_prob": 0.2959,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3846,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.14
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0084,
"ev": -0.1024,
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Trygg/Lade"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.985,
"edge": 0.0211,
"market_prob": 0.3042,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.139,
"best_odd": 2.985,
"edge": 0.0211,
"ev": -0.029,
"implied_prob": 0.3042,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"p_final": 0.3253
},
"p_final": 0.3253,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.029,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.1911,
"best_odd": 1.305,
"edge": -0.029,
"ev": -0.1298,
"implied_prob": 0.6958,
"model_prob": 0.544,
"p_final": 0.6668
}
},
"edge": 0.1545,
"ev": 0.5048,
"implied_prob": 0.3015,
"model_prob": 0.456,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 3.0,
"edge": 0.017,
"market_prob": 0.3056,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 6,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.1686,
"best_odd": 1.32,
"edge": -0.0358,
"ev": -0.1306,
"implied_prob": 0.6944,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6586
},
"p_final": 0.3226,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0323,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.08,
"best_odd": 3.0,
"edge": 0.017,
"ev": -0.0323,
"implied_prob": 0.3056,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3226
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.2117,
"ev": 0.6576,
"implied_prob": 0.3063,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1496349,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.6576,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3195,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.3846
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5048,
"implied_prob": 0.3015,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5048,
"implied_prob": 0.3015,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.456,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Junkeren",
"home": "Trygg/Lade"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.238446,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.6576,
"implied_prob": 0.3063,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1024,
"consensus_ev_display": "-10.2%",
"consensus_odds": 2.27,
"disagreement_label": "Normal",
"disagreement_level": "normal",
"implied_prob": 0.4038,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3846,
"raw_edge_display": "-1.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -1.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.44052863436123346,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.127,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-12.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1496349,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-10-04T13:59:51.285093+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 2 - Kumpulan 2 Norway — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 51 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 22 | 15 | 2 | 5 | 47 |
| 3 | Levanger | 22 | 15 | 0 | 7 | 45 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 22 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 45 |
| 5 | Grorud | 22 | 13 | 4 | 5 | 43 |
| 6 | Stjørdals-Blink | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 33 |
| 7 | Lørenskog | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 33 |
| 8 | Tromsdalen UIL | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 32 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 20 |
| 12 | Follo | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 14 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 22 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 10 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 22 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 9 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hønefoss | 22 | 56 | 33 | +23 | 45 |
| 2 | Eidsvold | 22 | 53 | 19 | +34 | 51 |
| 3 | Levanger | 22 | 53 | 27 | +26 | 45 |
| 4 | Kjelsås | 22 | 51 | 32 | +19 | 47 |
| 5 | Grorud | 22 | 40 | 20 | +20 | 43 |
| 6 | Tromsdalen UIL | 22 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 32 |
| 7 | Stjørdals-Blink | 22 | 38 | 38 | 0 | 33 |
| 8 | Rana | 22 | 38 | 39 | -1 | 30 |
| 9 | Lørenskog | 22 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 33 |
| 10 | Skeid | 22 | 32 | 50 | -18 | 20 |
| 11 | Junkeren | 22 | 31 | 36 | -5 | 31 |
| 12 | Ull/Kisa | 22 | 26 | 72 | -46 | 10 |
| 13 | Follo | 22 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 14 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 22 | 25 | 53 | -28 | 9 |
