The model missed the final outcome (Hodd win 4–3).
The model had projected Strommen at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Strommen Hodd ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hodd | 33.3% | 45.3% | -12.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 25.9% | +3.7 pp | Aligned |
| Strommen | 37.1% | 28.8% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Hodd's win probability at 45.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 12.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Hodd win 4–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Hodd than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Strommen; match finished Hodd
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Strommen by 12.0 percentage points (49.1% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hodd 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Strommen 37.0%
- xG · Hodd 1.26 — Strommen 1.34
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hodd 2.10 · Draw 3.67 · Strommen 3.31
- Implied 1X2 · Hodd 45.3% · Draw 25.9% · Strommen 28.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Hodd 2.10 · Draw 3.67 · Strommen 3.31
- Implied 1X2 · Hodd 45.3% · Draw 25.9% · Strommen 28.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hodd win · 4–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen 1 Norway — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haugesund | 22 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 49 |
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 47 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 22 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 45 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 42 |
| 5 | Bryne | 23 | 11 | 2 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Hodd | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | ODD Ballklubb | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 8 | Egersund | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 29 |
| 9 | Lyn | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 10 | Ranheim | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 11 | Strommen | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 12 | Sandnes ULF | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 13 | Sogndal | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 14 | Moss | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 22 |
| 15 | Asane | 23 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 20 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 22 | 6 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haugesund | 22 | 68 | 37 | +31 | 49 |
| 2 | Kongsvinger | 22 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 47 |
| 3 | Stromsgodset | 22 | 58 | 31 | +27 | 45 |
| 4 | Stabaek | 22 | 55 | 28 | +27 | 42 |
| 5 | Ranheim | 22 | 52 | 57 | -5 | 25 |
| 6 | ODD Ballklubb | 22 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 33 |
| 7 | Lyn | 22 | 38 | 44 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Hodd | 22 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 34 |
| 9 | Sogndal | 22 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 23 |
| 10 | Moss | 22 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 22 |
| 11 | Egersund | 22 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 29 |
| 12 | Asane | 23 | 34 | 52 | -18 | 20 |
| 13 | Strommen | 22 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 25 |
| 14 | Bryne | 23 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 35 |
| 15 | Sandnes ULF | 22 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 24 |
| 16 | Raufoss | 22 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 19 |
