The model missed the final outcome (VPS win 1–2).
The model had projected SJK at 63.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 SJK VPS ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 3-2, 1-1 1-2 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJK | 63.3% | 39.5% | +23.8 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 18.1% | 27.1% | -8.9 pp | Market Higher |
| VPS | 18.6% | 33.4% | -14.8 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates SJK's win probability at 63.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 39.5%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah VPS win 1–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.39) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned SJK; match finished VPS
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on SJK by 23.8 percentage points (39.5% vs model 63.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SJK 63.3% · Draw 18.1% · VPS 18.6%
- xG · SJK 2.83 — VPS 1.56
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SJK 2.45 · Draw 3.58 · VPS 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · SJK 39.5% · Draw 27.1% · VPS 33.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 17:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SJK 2.45 · Draw 3.58 · VPS 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · SJK 39.5% · Draw 27.1% · VPS 33.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 17, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result VPS win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (24 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (110%+)
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 63.3%
- Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
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},
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},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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{
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{
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "6/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "6/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"alert_team": "VPS",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 23.8,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 23.76,
"hero_label": "SJK",
"market_prob_pct": 39.5,
"market_team": "SJK",
"model_prob_pct": 63.3,
"model_team": "SJK",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"edge_rows": [
{
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"label": "SJK",
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"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.93,
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"label": "Draw",
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"outcome": "draw"
},
{
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"label": "VPS",
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"outcome": "away"
},
{
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"market_prob": 53.33,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -28.07,
"fair_prob": 18.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 46.67,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 17.26,
"fair_prob": 75.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 57.74,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -17.26,
"fair_prob": 25.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 42.26,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 23.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.3,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "SJK",
"market_prob_pct": 39.54,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "VPS"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 23.76,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Fair probability from Poisson/xG statistical model. Not bookmaker odds. Not betting advice.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Favourite",
"favourite_label": "SJK",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Clear favourite",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_prob_pct": 39.5,
"model_prob_pct": 63.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"reliability_headline": "Use caution",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_tier": "caution",
"summary": "Model and market lean the same side on SJK, but pricing gaps warrant caution.",
"tier": "favourite",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning"
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 23.76,
"hero_label": "SJK",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "VPS odds shortened \u2193 -3.0%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"max_gap_pp": 23.76,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 44.7 pp (at 63.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 44.7,
"max_prob_pct": 63.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 23.76,
"fair_prob_pct": 63.3,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "SJK",
"market_prob_pct": 39.54,
"side": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.93,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.13,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.06,
"side": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.83,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.57,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "VPS",
"market_prob_pct": 33.4,
"side": "away"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers SJK (39.5%).",
"VPS has attracted notable multi-book line movement (\u2193 -3.0%, 6/13).",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 SJK, Market \u2192 SJK, Recent sharp money \u2192 VPS.",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.82,
"closing_odds": 2.45,
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.82,
"entry_odds": 2.45,
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 6,
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on VPS (swing 3.15 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.62) \u2014 net 3.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_path": {
"display": "3.15 \u2192 2.62 \u2192 2.62",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 59h 48m",
"pick_team": "VPS",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.15"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.62"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.62"
}
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,12.9 28.0,0.0 56.0,18.0",
"sparkline_trend": "volatile",
"sparkline_trend_label": "V-shape swing"
},
"open_odds": 2.7,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "VPS",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Betfair",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "6/13",
"current_odds": 2.62,
"move_display": "\u2193 -3.0%",
"open_odds": 2.7,
"pick_team": "VPS",
"steam_score": 26,
"steam_team_name": "VPS",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 23.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
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"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 650,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/650.webp",
"away_team_name": "VPS",
"country_code": "FI",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/fi.svg",
"country_name": "Finland",
"fixture_id": 1495708,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_country": "Finland",
"home_team_id": 689,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/689.webp",
"home_team_name": "SJK",
"league_country": "Finland",
"league_id": 244,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/244.webp",
"league_name": "Veikkausliiga",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-06-17 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Seinajoki",
"venue_name": "OmaSp Stadion"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
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"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.35,
"best_odd": 2.9,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0519,
"ev": -0.1817,
"implied_prob": 0.334,
"model_prob": 0.1859,
"p_final": 0.2822
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2598,
"best_odd": 3.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0232,
"ev": -0.1145,
"implied_prob": 0.2706,
"model_prob": 0.1812,
"p_final": 0.2474
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2896,
"best_odd": 2.45,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0688,
"ev": 0.1373,
"implied_prob": 0.3954,
"model_prob": 0.6329,
"p_final": 0.4642
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.62,
"edge_no": -0.1726,
"edge_yes": 0.1726,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.4375,
"ev_yes": 0.215,
"implied_no": 0.4226,
"implied_yes": 0.5774,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.09,
"edge_over": 0.2807,
"edge_under": -0.2807,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.4733,
"ev_under": -0.6113,
"implied_over": 0.5333,
"implied_under": 0.4667,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.39,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
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"algorithm": {
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"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
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"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.4733,
"confidence": 7.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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],
"breakdown_resolved": [
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"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 7.5
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
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"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
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"draw_prob": 0.1812,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6329,
"over_prob": 0.814,
"total_xg": 4.39,
"under_prob": 0.186,
"xg_diff": 1.27
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0688,
"ev": 0.1373,
"implied_prob": 0.3954,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.6329,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "SJK"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1726,
"ev": 0.215,
"implied_prob": 0.5774,
"model_prob": 0.75,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2807,
"ev": 0.4733,
"implied_prob": 0.5333,
"model_prob": 0.814,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1495708,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.4733,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.1812,
"home": 0.6329
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.215,
"implied_prob": 0.5774,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.75,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
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"market": "btts",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "yes",
"slot": "secondary"
},
{
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"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "SJK",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "VPS",
"home": "SJK"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4733,
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"market": "ou_2_5",
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"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "over",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3
}
},
"fixture_id": 1495708,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-17T17:59:12.939011+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Veikkausliiga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 43 |
| 2 | Inter Turku | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 42 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 37 |
| 4 | Gnistan | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36 |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 34 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Lahti | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 32 |
| 8 | Turku PS | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| 9 | Ilves | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 25 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 19 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KuPS | 22 | 38 | 23 | +15 | 43 |
| 2 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 36 | 27 | +9 | 37 |
| 3 | Gnistan | 22 | 36 | 29 | +7 | 36 |
| 4 | Ilves | 22 | 34 | 37 | -3 | 25 |
| 5 | Inter Turku | 22 | 29 | 16 | +13 | 42 |
| 6 | VPS | 22 | 29 | 22 | +7 | 33 |
| 7 | Turku PS | 22 | 28 | 23 | +5 | 31 |
| 8 | Lahti | 22 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 32 |
| 9 | AC Oulu | 22 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 34 |
| 10 | SJK | 22 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 19 |
| 11 | FF Jaro | 22 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
| 12 | Mariehamn | 22 | 17 | 43 | -26 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilves | 22 | 4.2 | 1.7 | +2.5 | 25 |
| 2 | AC Oulu | 22 | 2.7 | 2.2 | +0.5 | 34 |
| 3 | HJK Helsinki | 22 | 2.0 | 1.6 | +0.4 | 37 |
| 4 | KuPS | 22 | 2.3 | 2.0 | +0.3 | 43 |
| 5 | SJK | 22 | 2.5 | 2.4 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 6 | Lahti | 22 | 2.4 | 2.5 | -0.1 | 32 |
| 7 | VPS | 22 | 2.0 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 33 |
| 8 | Mariehamn | 22 | 2.2 | 2.7 | -0.5 | 14 |
| 9 | Turku PS | 22 | 0.9 | 1.6 | -0.7 | 31 |
| 10 | FF Jaro | 22 | 2.4 | 4.6 | -2.2 | 15 |
| 11 | Inter Turku | 22 | — | — | — | 42 |
| 12 | Gnistan | 22 | — | — | — | 36 |