The model missed the final outcome (Birmingham Legion win 4–0).
The model had projected Brooklyn at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Brooklyn Birmingham Legion ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Legion | 34.2% | 56.3% | -22.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.6% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Brooklyn | 36.1% | 22.1% | +14.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Birmingham Legion's win probability at 56.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 22.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Birmingham Legion win 4–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Brooklyn; match finished Birmingham Legion
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Brooklyn by 22.1 percentage points (58.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Birmingham Legion 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Brooklyn 36.1%
- xG · Birmingham Legion 1.28 — Brooklyn 1.32
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Birmingham Legion 1.68 · Draw 4.37 · Brooklyn 4.29
- Implied 1X2 · Birmingham Legion 56.3% · Draw 21.6% · Brooklyn 22.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Birmingham Legion 1.68 · Draw 4.37 · Brooklyn 4.29
- Implied 1X2 · Birmingham Legion 56.3% · Draw 21.6% · Brooklyn 22.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 23, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Birmingham Legion win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
52/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.68
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Birmingham Legion win · Birmingham Legion 4–0 Brooklyn
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "8b2c2de2fa626e6856ef2d6ada1d51ef83fd964fb0a16c933d5d4fcd991a6e80",
"decision_algo_version": "2.5.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.32,
"away_win_prob": 0.3611,
"away_win_prob_posterior": null,
"bayes_applied": 0,
"btts_no_prob": 0.455,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2965,
"draw_prob_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_away": 2.77,
"fair_odds_away_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.37,
"fair_odds_draw_posterior": null,
"fair_odds_home": 2.92,
"fair_odds_home_posterior": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"home_win_prob": 0.3424,
"home_win_prob_posterior": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.482,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under_25_prob": 0.518
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : Birmingham Legion or draw",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Birmingham Legion"
},
"away_xg": 1.32,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Brooklyn",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.1404,
"edge_gap": 0.0185,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.2205,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 36.1,
"draw": 29.7,
"home": 34.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.29
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.29,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Brooklyn Win",
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 4.54,
"market_odds": 4.29,
"model_odds": 2.77,
"overround": 5.7,
"prob_edge": 12.8,
"value_pct": 54.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 3,
"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 23,
"away_score_rate": 73.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 4,
"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 72.2,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 54.5,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.32,
"home_expected": 1.28,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Birmingham Legion or Draw",
"prob": 63.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Birmingham Legion or Brooklyn",
"prob": 70.3
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Brooklyn",
"prob": 65.7
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Birmingham Legion or Brooklyn",
"pick_prob": 70.3
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 36.1,
"draw_pct": 29.6,
"home_pct": 34.2,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Brooklyn"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.6,
"away_avg_scored": 1.0,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.3,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 51.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.6,
"under_prob": 51.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 54.9,
"implied_prob": 23.3,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Brooklyn Win",
"model_prob": 36.1,
"odds": 4.29
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Brooklyn",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 22.05,
"draw": 21.65,
"home": 56.3
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-09-23 15:59:25",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-09-23 15:29:34",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Birmingham Legion",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 56.3,
"gap_pp": -22.07,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 34.24
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.65,
"gap_pp": 8.02,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 29.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 22.05,
"gap_pp": 14.04,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 36.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 64.16,
"gap_pp": -15.96,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 48.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 35.84,
"gap_pp": 15.96,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 51.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.68,
"early": 1.68,
"implied_closing_pct": 56.3,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 56.3,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.37,
"early": 4.37,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.65,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.65,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.29,
"early": 4.29,
"implied_closing_pct": 22.05,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 22.05,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.48,
"early": 1.48,
"implied_closing_pct": 64.16,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 64.16,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 2.65,
"early": 2.65,
"implied_closing_pct": 35.84,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 35.84,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 16.0,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": 0.7,
"ev": 0.0625,
"has_edge": true,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 8.5,
"market_prob": 0.1176,
"market_prob_pct": 11.8,
"model_prob": 0.125,
"model_prob_pct": 12.5,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"status_key": "positive_edge"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.5
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 8.0
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.28,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.465,
"edge": 0.0206,
"edge_pp": 2.1,
"market_prob": 0.3712,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6288,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6005
},
"p_final": 0.3918,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.7,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2769,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.465,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3918
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -26.2,
"text": "-26.2%"
},
"ev_under": 0.3675,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": true,
"raw_pct": 36.8,
"text": "+25%+"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.3675,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over_prob": 48.2,
"sort_key": 10480.75,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 51.8,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0124,
"edge_pp": 1.2,
"market_prob": 0.3772,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3896
},
"p_final": 0.3896,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"raw_edge_pp": 7.8,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.1079,
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0513,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.6228,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6058
}
},
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 19.7,
"text": "+19.7%"
},
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -16.6,
"text": "-16.6%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1966,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 10176.94,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.041,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.041,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+54.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Brooklyn",
"sort_key": 10036.9,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 817.5,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.5
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/8",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/8 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"alert_team": "Brooklyn",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 22.1,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -22.06,
"hero_label": "Birmingham Legion",
"market_prob_pct": 22.1,
"market_team": "Birmingham Legion",
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"model_team": "Brooklyn",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5484,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brooklyn at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brooklyn as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brooklyn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Brooklyn \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493703 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +36.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.041,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2331002331002331,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+54.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "7/8",
"breadth_ratio": 0.875,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (22 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.8,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 54,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 22.06,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 22.06,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.32,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.28,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.28 \u00b7 Away xG 1.32 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"steam_team": "Brooklyn",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5484,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brooklyn at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brooklyn as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brooklyn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Brooklyn \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493703 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +36.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.041,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2331002331002331,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+54.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Birmingham Legion 1.28 xG vs Brooklyn 1.32 \u2192 Brooklyn 36.1%",
"Market: Birmingham Legion ~22.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Brooklyn odds \u2191 +9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Brooklyn, but the market has moved away from Brooklyn.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -22.06,
"fair_prob": 34.24,
"label": "Birmingham Legion",
"market_prob": 56.3,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.0,
"fair_prob": 29.65,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 21.65,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.06,
"fair_prob": 36.11,
"label": "Brooklyn",
"market_prob": 22.05,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.87,
"fair_prob": 48.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 63.07,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": 14.87,
"fair_prob": 51.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 36.93,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": -8.0,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 62.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": 8.0,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 37.5,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -22.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Birmingham Legion",
"market_prob_pct": 56.3,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Brooklyn"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Birmingham Legion\u0027s win probability at 56.3%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 22.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 22.06,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Brooklyn",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 22.1,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 14.0,
"model_prob_pct": 36.1,
"outcome_separation_tier": "low",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 54,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 10,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Birmingham Legion 1.28 xG vs Brooklyn 1.32 \u2192 Brooklyn 36.1%",
"Market: Birmingham Legion ~22.1% implied",
"Market Drift: Brooklyn odds \u2191 +9.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Brooklyn, but the market has moved away from Brooklyn.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -22.06,
"hero_label": "Birmingham Legion",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Brooklyn odds lengthened \u2191 +9.3%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 22.06,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Top two 1X2 outcomes within 1.9 percentage points."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 1.9,
"max_prob_pct": 36.1,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Low",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Birmingham Legion",
"largest_gap_pp": -22.1,
"lead": "The closing market prices Birmingham Legion higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 22.1,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -22.06,
"edge_pp": -22.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.24,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Birmingham Legion",
"market_prob_pct": 56.3,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 8.0,
"edge_pp": 8.0,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.65,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 21.65,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 14.06,
"edge_pp": 14.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 36.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Brooklyn",
"market_prob_pct": 22.05,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Birmingham Legion (22.1%).",
"However, Brooklyn has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +9.3%, 7/8) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Brooklyn, Market \u2192 Birmingham Legion, while Brooklyn odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 59.52,
"closing_odds": 1.68,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 59.52,
"entry_odds": 1.68,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 8,
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 9.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 46m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Brooklyn (9.3%, 7/8) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.29",
"4.02",
"3.75"
],
"display": "4.26 \u2192 3.75 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 31h 46m",
"pick_team": "Brooklyn",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.26"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.75,
4.29,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,6.3",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.75"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.29"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.75,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/8 sportsbooks on Brooklyn",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Brooklyn",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"summary": "Market moved away from Brooklyn while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Brooklyn",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/8",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"open_odds": 3.75,
"pick_team": "Brooklyn",
"steam_score": 50,
"steam_team_name": "Brooklyn",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 22.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"at2.away_team_slug": "brooklyn",
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Brooklyn",
"away_team_id": 27252,
"away_team_logo": null,
"away_team_name": "Brooklyn",
"away_team_public_id": "1VLK7UJAN1Oc6W",
"away_team_slug": "brooklyn",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1493703,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Birmingham Legion",
"home_team_id": 3989,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3989.webp",
"home_team_name": "Birmingham Legion",
"home_team_public_id": "5RbYApWXlJGFBk",
"home_team_slug": "birmingham-legion",
"ht.home_team_slug": "birmingham-legion",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "USL Championship",
"league_id": 255,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/255.webp",
"league_name": "USL Championship",
"league_public_id": "3mwK4u858hcLji",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-23 16:00:00",
"public_id": "1IAbQ9xHRJnHYE",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Protective Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_top_two_close",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"Top two outcomes relatively close in probability (\u22120.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1579,
"best_odd": 4.29,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": 0.041,
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2205,
"draw": 0.2165,
"home": 0.563
},
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"p_final": 0.2427
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1759,
"best_odd": 4.37,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0141,
"ev": 0.0076,
"implied_prob": 0.2165,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2205,
"draw": 0.2165,
"home": 0.563
},
"model_prob": 0.2967,
"p_final": 0.2306
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4014,
"best_odd": 1.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0886,
"ev": -0.2029,
"implied_prob": 0.563,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2205,
"draw": 0.2165,
"home": 0.563
},
"model_prob": 0.3424,
"p_final": 0.4745
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.29,
"edge": 0.1278,
"ev": 0.5484,
"implied_prob": 0.2331,
"model_prob": 0.3609
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.37,
"edge": 0.0678,
"ev": 0.2965,
"implied_prob": 0.2288,
"model_prob": 0.2967
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.68,
"edge": -0.2528,
"ev": -0.4248,
"implied_prob": 0.5952,
"model_prob": 0.3424
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.159,
"alpha_yes": 0.2186,
"best_no_odd": 2.63,
"best_yes_odd": 1.53,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": 0.08,
"edge_yes": -0.08,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1966,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.0513,
"ev_yes": -0.1661,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.1065,
"implied_no": 0.375,
"implied_yes": 0.625,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3896
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.6228,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6058
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"p_final_no": 0.3896,
"p_final_yes": 0.6058,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.193,
"alpha_under": 0.1404,
"best_over_odd": 1.53,
"best_under_odd": 2.64,
"consensus_over_odd": 1.455,
"consensus_under_odd": 2.465,
"edge_over": -0.1487,
"edge_under": 0.1487,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2625,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.1263,
"ev_under": 0.3675,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0343,
"implied_over": 0.6307,
"implied_over_mf": 0.6288,
"implied_under": 0.3693,
"implied_under_mf": 0.3712,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6288,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6005
},
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.465,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3918
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.6005,
"p_final_under": 0.3918,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5484,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3675,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.0,
"score_before_guard": 6.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"score": 3.0,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.1,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.1,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.3675,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5484,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "NO_SIGNAL",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Brooklyn at 36.1%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 22.1%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Brooklyn as the value side (36.1%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced due to calibration uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 14.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Brooklyn",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market OU_2_5 \u00b7 side Brooklyn \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.99 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +55% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493703 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.99 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +36.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +36.8% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +36.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.0/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +36.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.0/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "54 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+36.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Brooklyn, but the model still strongly favours Brooklyn.",
"Decision strength: 3.0/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +55% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 54,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Low xG separation (league-average noise)"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.041,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2331002331002331,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+54.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [
"Low xG separation gap=0.04 (noise / no edge)"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "flat",
"block_value_alert": true,
"separation_score": -20,
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"xg_gap": 0.04
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2967,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3609,
"over_prob": 0.482,
"total_xg": 2.6,
"under_prob": 0.518,
"xg_diff": 0.04
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0222,
"ev": 0.041,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Brooklyn"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0124,
"market_prob": 0.3772,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.159,
"best_odd": 2.435,
"edge": 0.0124,
"ev": -0.0513,
"implied_prob": 0.3772,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"p_final": 0.3896
},
"p_final": 0.3896,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0513,
"value_side": "no",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.2186,
"best_odd": 1.475,
"edge": -0.017,
"ev": -0.1065,
"implied_prob": 0.6228,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"p_final": 0.6058
}
},
"edge": 0.08,
"ev": 0.1966,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"model_prob": 0.455,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"available": true,
"consensus_odds": 2.465,
"edge": 0.0206,
"market_prob": 0.3712,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.193,
"best_odd": 1.455,
"edge": -0.0283,
"ev": -0.1263,
"implied_prob": 0.6288,
"model_prob": 0.482,
"p_final": 0.6005
},
"p_final": 0.3918,
"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0343,
"under": {
"alpha": 0.1404,
"best_odd": 2.465,
"edge": 0.0206,
"ev": -0.0343,
"implied_prob": 0.3712,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"p_final": 0.3918
},
"value_side": "under"
},
"edge": 0.1487,
"ev": 0.3675,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.3693,
"model_prob": 0.518,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1493703,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3675,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3609,
"draw": 0.2967,
"home": 0.3424
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1966,
"implied_prob": 0.375,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.455,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Brooklyn",
"home": "Birmingham Legion"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.133255,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3675,
"implied_prob": 0.3693,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.518,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.041,
"consensus_ev_display": "+4.1%",
"consensus_odds": 4.29,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.2205,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.3609,
"raw_edge_display": "+14.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 14.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.2331002331002331,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5483,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+54.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493703,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-23T15:59:27.472836+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Birmingham Legion & Brooklyn!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
USL Championship — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 |
| 1 | Orange County SC | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 2 | San Antonio | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 25 |
| 3 | Detroit City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 3 | New Mexico United | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 9 | 12 | 5 | 39 |
| 4 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 38 |
| 5 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 22 |
| 6 | Louisville City | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 37 |
| 6 | Lexington | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 33 |
| 7 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Rhode Island | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 32 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | Miami FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 9 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 20 |
| 10 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 10 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Loudoun United | 25 | 4 | 11 | 10 | 23 |
| 11 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 18 |
| 12 | Brooklyn | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 18 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 15 |
| 13 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charleston Battery | 25 | 50 | 31 | +19 | 43 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Rowdies | 25 | 45 | 23 | +22 | 51 |
| 3 | Louisville City | 26 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 37 |
| 4 | Birmingham Legion | 25 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 23 |
| 5 | Rhode Island | 23 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 32 |
| 6 | Indy Eleven | 25 | 32 | 31 | +1 | 33 |
| 7 | Miami FC | 26 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 30 |
| 8 | Loudoun United | 25 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 23 |
| 9 | Sporting JAX | 26 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 14 |
| 10 | Detroit City | 25 | 29 | 19 | +10 | 41 |
| 11 | Hartford Athletic | 26 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 39 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 26 | 28 | 26 | +2 | 38 |
| 13 | Colorado Springs | 15 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 22 |
| 14 | Orange County SC | 16 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 28 |
| 15 | El Paso Locomotive | 15 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 19 |
| 16 | Brooklyn | 25 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 18 |
| 17 | Lexington | 15 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 18 | Oakland Roots | 16 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 21 |
| 19 | Phoenix Rising | 16 | 23 | 24 | -1 | 20 |
| 20 | Las Vegas Lights | 15 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 18 |
| 21 | San Antonio | 16 | 21 | 19 | +2 | 25 |
| 22 | New Mexico United | 14 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 24 |
| 23 | FC Tulsa | 14 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 22 |
| 24 | Sacramento Republic | 14 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 20 |
| 25 | Monterey Bay | 16 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 15 |
