AI correctly predicted the Lanús win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Lanús Lanús ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lanús | 44.5% | 52.2% | -7.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 30.6% | 29.5% | +1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Defensa y Justicia | 24.9% | 18.3% | +6.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Lanús's win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.5%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Lanús win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Lanús. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Lanús higher (52.2% vs model 44.5%, 7.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Lanús win 1–0).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lanús 44.5% · Draw 30.6% · Defensa y Justicia 24.9%
- xG · Lanús 1.32 — Defensa y Justicia 1.05
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lanús 1.85 · Draw 3.27 · Defensa y Justicia 5.28
- Implied 1X2 · Lanús 52.2% · Draw 29.5% · Defensa y Justicia 18.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 19:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Lanús 1.85 · Draw 3.27 · Defensa y Justicia 5.28
- Implied 1X2 · Lanús 52.2% · Draw 29.5% · Defensa y Justicia 18.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 20:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lanús win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
75/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
61/100
Betting Confidence
78/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.85
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Lanús win · Lanús 1–0 Defensa y Justicia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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},
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},
{
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"decision": "no_bet",
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"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": -0.1101,
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"text": "-11.0%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Lan\u00fas",
"sort_key": 5222.72,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
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"tier": "risk",
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}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"alert_team": "Defensa y Justicia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 7.7,
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"show": true,
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"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
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{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
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],
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"label": "Agree",
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"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
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},
"authority": {
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"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
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"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lan\u00fas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3147,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lan\u00fas at 44.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lan\u00fas as the value side (44.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
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}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lan\u00fas",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Lan\u00fas \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.67 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +31% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493114 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.67 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lan\u00fas).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +31% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4449,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5384615384615384,
"evidence": {
"score": 78,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 21.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.4,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 84,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 7.71,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.71,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.05,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.32,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.32,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.32 \u00b7 Away xG 1.05 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation -2%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"steam_team": "Defensa y Justicia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lan\u00fas).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lan\u00fas)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lan\u00fas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3147,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lan\u00fas at 44.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lan\u00fas as the value side (44.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lan\u00fas",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Lan\u00fas \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.67 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +31% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493114 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.67 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lan\u00fas).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +31% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4449,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lan\u00fas 1.32 xG vs Defensa y Justicia 1.05 \u2192 Lan\u00fas 44.5%",
"Market: Lan\u00fas ~52.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Defensa y Justicia odds \u2191 +5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lan\u00fas with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -7.71,
"fair_prob": 44.48,
"label": "Lan\u00fas",
"market_prob": 52.19,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 1.08,
"fair_prob": 30.61,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.53,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 6.62,
"fair_prob": 24.91,
"label": "Defensa y Justicia",
"market_prob": 18.29,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.14,
"fair_prob": 42.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": 40.06,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.14,
"fair_prob": 57.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": 59.94,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": 5.51,
"fair_prob": 49.3,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": 43.79,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.51,
"fair_prob": 50.7,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": 56.21,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -7.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.48,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Lan\u00fas",
"market_prob_pct": 52.19,
"status": "market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Defensa y Justicia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates Lan\u00fas\u0027s win probability at 52.2%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 44.5%, a difference of 7.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 7.71,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Lan\u00fas",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 52.2,
"model_prob_gap_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": -7.7,
"model_prob_pct": 44.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": -7.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 84,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Lan\u00fas \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 88,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 44,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 61,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Lan\u00fas 1.32 xG vs Defensa y Justicia 1.05 \u2192 Lan\u00fas 44.5%",
"Market: Lan\u00fas ~52.2% implied",
"Market Drift: Defensa y Justicia odds \u2191 +5.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Lan\u00fas with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -7.71,
"hero_label": "Lan\u00fas",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Defensa y Justicia odds lengthened \u2191 +5.0%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Defensa y Justicia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The market and model broadly agree on Lan\u00fas. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"note": "Drift away from Defensa y Justicia \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market and model broadly agree on Lan\u00fas. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.",
"However, Defensa y Justicia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Defensa y Justicia \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market still prices Lan\u00fas above the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Defensa y Justicia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 7.71,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 13.9 pp (at 44.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 13.9,
"max_prob_pct": 44.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Lan\u00fas",
"largest_gap_pp": -7.7,
"lead": "The closing market prices Lan\u00fas higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 7.7,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -7.71,
"edge_pp": -7.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 44.48,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Lan\u00fas",
"market_prob_pct": 52.19,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 1.08,
"edge_pp": 1.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.61,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.53,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 6.62,
"edge_pp": 6.62,
"fair_prob_pct": 24.91,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Defensa y Justicia",
"market_prob_pct": 18.29,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
}
],
"status": "market_ahead",
"status_label": "Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Defensa y Justicia \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.0% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Lan\u00fas (52.2%).",
"Defensa y Justicia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.0%, 7/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Lan\u00fas \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 54.05,
"closing_odds": 1.85,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 54.05,
"entry_odds": 1.85,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +18.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 18.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +11.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 11.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.0,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 157h 57m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Defensa y Justicia (swing 5.39 \u2192 3.88 \u2192 5.25) \u2014 net 5.0% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.0,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"5.28",
"5.14",
"5.00"
],
"display": "5.39 \u2192 3.88 \u2192 5.25",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 157h 57m",
"pick_team": "Defensa y Justicia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.39"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
5.0,
5.28,
5.25
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,1.9",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "5.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "5.28"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "5.25"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 5.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Defensa y Justicia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 5.25,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Defensa y Justicia",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/13",
"current_odds": 5.25,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.0%",
"open_odds": 5.0,
"pick_team": "Defensa y Justicia",
"steam_score": 33,
"steam_team_name": "Defensa y Justicia",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 7.7,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Defensa y Justicia",
"away_team_id": 442,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/442.webp",
"away_team_name": "Defensa y Justicia",
"away_team_public_id": "2bYwgaXTnhEUma",
"away_team_slug": "defensa-y-justicia",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493114,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Lan\u00fas",
"home_team_id": 446,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/446.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lan\u00fas",
"home_team_public_id": "1bpOxnhW0rsnAJ",
"home_team_slug": "lanus",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_public_id": "3OCeIb3vl8JGVi",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-06 20:00:00",
"public_id": "0q7YAAc2E0InHx",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1802,
"best_odd": 5.28,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0119,
"ev": 0.0284,
"implied_prob": 0.1829,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1829,
"draw": 0.2953,
"home": 0.5219
},
"model_prob": 0.249,
"p_final": 0.1948
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2951,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0032,
"ev": -0.024,
"implied_prob": 0.2953,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1829,
"draw": 0.2953,
"home": 0.5219
},
"model_prob": 0.3061,
"p_final": 0.2985
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5307,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1101,
"implied_prob": 0.5219,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.1829,
"draw": 0.2953,
"home": 0.5219
},
"model_prob": 0.4449,
"p_final": 0.481
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 5.28,
"edge": 0.0596,
"ev": 0.3147,
"implied_prob": 0.1894,
"model_prob": 0.249
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": 0.0003,
"ev": 0.001,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.3061
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 1.85,
"edge": -0.0957,
"ev": -0.177,
"implied_prob": 0.5405,
"model_prob": 0.4449
}
},
"btts": {
"alpha_no": 0.5568,
"alpha_yes": 0.5062,
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.2,
"btts_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"edge_no": -0.0551,
"edge_yes": 0.0551,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1381,
"ev_no_risk_adj": -0.1289,
"ev_yes": 0.0846,
"ev_yes_risk_adj": -0.0212,
"implied_no": 0.5621,
"implied_yes": 0.4379,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_btts",
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"no": {
"alpha": 0.5568,
"best_odd": 1.64,
"edge": -0.0303,
"ev": -0.1289,
"implied_prob": 0.5615,
"model_prob": 0.507,
"p_final": 0.5312
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"yes": {
"alpha": 0.5062,
"best_odd": 2.1,
"edge": 0.0276,
"ev": -0.0212,
"implied_prob": 0.4385,
"model_prob": 0.493,
"p_final": 0.4661
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"p_final_no": 0.5312,
"p_final_yes": 0.4661,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"alpha_over": 0.4264,
"alpha_under": 0.5864,
"best_over_odd": 2.5,
"best_under_odd": 1.64,
"consensus_over_odd": 2.355,
"consensus_under_odd": 1.57,
"edge_over": 0.0214,
"edge_under": -0.0214,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.055,
"ev_over_risk_adj": -0.0359,
"ev_under": -0.0521,
"ev_under_risk_adj": -0.0783,
"implied_over": 0.4006,
"implied_over_mf": 0.4,
"implied_under": 0.5994,
"implied_under_mf": 0.6,
"market_first": {
"available": true,
"mode": "market_first_ou",
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4264,
"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"p_final": 0.4094
},
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under": {
"alpha": 0.5864,
"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.0783,
"implied_prob": 0.6,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5871
}
},
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"ou_ev_mode": "market_first_available",
"p_final_over": 0.4094,
"p_final_under": 0.5871,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.37,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3147,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0846,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.1,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 7.1,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.1
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 7.7,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lan\u00fas)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0846,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.3147,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.1,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.1,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 88,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Lan\u00fas at 44.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 52.2%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Lan\u00fas as the value side (44.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 7.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Lan\u00fas",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market BTTS \u00b7 side Lan\u00fas \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.67 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +31% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493114 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.67 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.1/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.1/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "84 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "88 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Lan\u00fas).",
"Decision strength: 7.1/10",
"Outlier price +31% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 84,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4449,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": -2.2,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "ok",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 0,
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"xg_gap": 0.27
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.493,
"draw_prob": 0.3061,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4449,
"over_prob": 0.422,
"total_xg": 2.37,
"under_prob": 0.578,
"xg_diff": 0.27
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev": 0.0284,
"implied_prob": 0.1829,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.249,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "longshot",
"risk_tier": "longshot",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Defensa y Justicia",
"slot": "longshot"
}
],
"markets": {
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"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0409,
"ev": -0.1101,
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"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4449,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Lan\u00fas"
},
"btts": {
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"decision_layer": {
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"edge": 0.0276,
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"no": {
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"edge": -0.0303,
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"implied_prob": 0.5615,
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"p_final": 0.5312
},
"p_final": 0.4661,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0212,
"value_side": "yes",
"yes": {
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}
},
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"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
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"consensus_odds": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0094,
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"mode": "market_first_ou",
"model_prob": 0.422,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"over": {
"alpha": 0.4264,
"best_odd": 2.355,
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0359,
"implied_prob": 0.4,
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"p_final": 0.4094
},
"p_final": 0.4094,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"risk_adj_ev": -0.0359,
"under": {
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"best_odd": 1.57,
"edge": -0.0129,
"ev": -0.0783,
"implied_prob": 0.6,
"model_prob": 0.578,
"p_final": 0.5871
},
"value_side": "over"
},
"edge": 0.0214,
"ev": 0.055,
"implied_prob": 0.4006,
"model_prob": 0.422,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1493114,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0846,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.249,
"draw": 0.3061,
"home": 0.4449
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium",
"longshot_high_variance"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Defensa y Justicia",
"home": "Lan\u00fas"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.041708,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0846,
"implied_prob": 0.4379,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.493,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "yes",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 3,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": -0.1101,
"consensus_ev_display": "-11.0%",
"consensus_odds": 1.85,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.5219,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4449,
"raw_edge_display": "-7.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": -7.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.5405405405405405,
"raw_signal_ev": -0.1769,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "-17.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493114,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-06T19:59:11.483256+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Profesional Argentina — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
