The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Atletico Tucuman at 43.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Atletico Tucuman Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Tucuman | 43.5% | 34.3% | +9.1 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 25.9% | 32.1% | -6.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 30.7% | 33.6% | -2.9 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Atletico Tucuman's win probability at 43.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 34.3%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atletico Tucuman.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (0 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atletico Tucuman by 9.1 percentage points (34.4% vs model 43.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Atletico Tucuman 43.5% · Draw 25.8% · Independiente Rivadavia 30.7%
- xG · Atletico Tucuman 1.75 — Independiente Rivadavia 1.45
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 17:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Atletico Tucuman 2.72 · Draw 3.12 · Independiente Rivadavia 2.90
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico Tucuman 35.6% · Draw 31.0% · Independiente Rivadavia 33.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Atletico Tucuman 2.82 · Draw 3.02 · Independiente Rivadavia 2.88
- Implied 1X2 · Atletico Tucuman 34.3% · Draw 32.1% · Independiente Rivadavia 33.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
54/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.82
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Atletico Tucuman 0–0 Independiente Rivadavia
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"facts": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
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}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_score_rate": 76.5,
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"home_played": 16,
"home_score_rate": 82.6,
"no_prob": 35.4,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 64.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
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},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.45,
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"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "1-1",
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},
{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
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{
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{
"away": 0,
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"label": "1-0",
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{
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}
],
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},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Atletico Tucuman or Draw",
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 74.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Atletico Tucuman or Independiente Rivadavia",
"pick_prob": 74.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 30.7,
"draw_pct": 25.9,
"home_pct": 43.5,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Atletico Tucuman"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.2,
"away_avg_scored": 1.8,
"confidence": "medium",
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"over_prob": 62.0,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.2,
"under_prob": 38.0
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 22.7,
"implied_prob": 35.5,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Atletico Tucuman Win",
"model_prob": 43.5,
"odds": 2.82
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 33.61,
"draw": 32.06,
"home": 34.33
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-26 18:01:38",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-26 17:33:05",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Atletico Tucuman",
"largest_move_kind": "1x2_h",
"max_abs_move_pp": 1.26,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 34.33,
"gap_pp": 9.15,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 43.48
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.06,
"gap_pp": -6.21,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.84
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 33.61,
"gap_pp": -2.94,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 30.68
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 38.24,
"gap_pp": 23.76,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 62.0
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 61.76,
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"kind": "ou_u",
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}
],
"movement": [
{
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},
{
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{
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{
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{
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],
"movement_negligible": false,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 10.3
}
},
"home_xg": 1.75,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0683,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 6.8,
"text": "+6.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0683,
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},
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"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2261,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "Atletico Tucuman",
"sort_key": 10211.47,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"over_prob": 62.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
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"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
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"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 35.4,
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 64.6
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 810.9,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 10.3
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "3/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "3/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.2,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.13,
"hero_label": "Atletico Tucuman",
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"market_team": "Atletico Tucuman",
"model_prob_pct": 43.5,
"model_team": "Atletico Tucuman",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atletico Tucuman)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atletico Tucuman)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0683,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2262,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Atletico Tucuman at 43.5% vs market 34.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Atletico Tucuman as the stronger side (43.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atletico Tucuman",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atletico Tucuman \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493002 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atletico Tucuman).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0683,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4348,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2261,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "3/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.23076923076923078,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.4,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 2.3,
"steam_coherence": 7.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.13,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.45,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 30.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.75,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.75,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.75 \u00b7 Away xG 1.45 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +30%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atletico Tucuman).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atletico Tucuman)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atletico Tucuman)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0683,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2262,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Atletico Tucuman at 43.5% vs market 34.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Atletico Tucuman as the stronger side (43.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atletico Tucuman",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atletico Tucuman \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493002 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atletico Tucuman).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0683,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4348,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2261,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atletico Tucuman 1.75 xG vs Independiente Rivadavia 1.45 \u2192 Atletico Tucuman 43.5%",
"Market: Atletico Tucuman ~34.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atletico Tucuman with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.13,
"fair_prob": 43.46,
"label": "Atletico Tucuman",
"market_prob": 34.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -6.21,
"fair_prob": 25.85,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 32.06,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -2.92,
"fair_prob": 30.69,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"market_prob": 33.61,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.0,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.0,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 64.6,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 35.4,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.46,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Atletico Tucuman",
"market_prob_pct": 34.33,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Atletico Tucuman\u0027s win probability at 43.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 34.3%, a difference of 9.1 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Atletico Tucuman",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 34.3,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.2,
"model_prob_pct": 43.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "Atletico Tucuman \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 43,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 54,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Atletico Tucuman 1.75 xG vs Independiente Rivadavia 1.45 \u2192 Atletico Tucuman 43.5%",
"Market: Atletico Tucuman ~34.3% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +3.3%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean Atletico Tucuman with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.13,
"hero_label": "Atletico Tucuman",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +3.3%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atletico Tucuman.",
"note": "",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Atletico Tucuman.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support. Confirmation remains limited (3/13 books), suggesting early interest rather than a broad market move."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Atletico Tucuman.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 3.3%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Market confirmation remains limited (3/13), suggesting an early move rather than a broad consensus."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.13,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.8 pp (at 43.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.8,
"max_prob_pct": 43.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Atletico Tucuman",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.1,
"lead": "The model rates Atletico Tucuman considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.1,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.13,
"edge_pp": 9.13,
"fair_prob_pct": 43.46,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atletico Tucuman",
"market_prob_pct": 34.33,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -6.21,
"edge_pp": -6.21,
"fair_prob_pct": 25.85,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 32.06,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -2.92,
"edge_pp": -2.92,
"fair_prob_pct": 30.69,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"market_prob_pct": 33.61,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Atletico Tucuman (34.3%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +3.3%, 3/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"Atletico Tucuman \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 35.46,
"closing_odds": 2.82,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 35.46,
"entry_odds": 2.82,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 3,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Highest consensus move",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"move_pct_abs": 3.3,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 155h 39m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Volatile two-way pricing on Draw (swing 3.13 \u2192 2.88 \u2192 3.10) \u2014 net 3.3% but intraday chop is elevated.",
"Price swings look choppy \u2014 volatility reduced overall confidence in the directional signal."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.3,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.12",
"3.06",
"3.00"
],
"display": "3.13 \u2192 2.88 \u2192 3.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 155h 39m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.13"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.88"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.0,
3.02,
3.12,
3.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 18.7,15.0 37.3,0.0 56.0,3.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.00"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.12"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.0,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Volatile",
"phase_tip": "High disagreement or chop \u2014 low reliability for directional bets.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "warn",
"signal_icon": "\u26a0\ufe0f",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "volatile_market",
"signal_label": "Volatile market",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "3/13",
"current_odds": 3.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +3.3%",
"open_odds": 3.0,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 18,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.1,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"away_team_id": 473,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/473.webp",
"away_team_name": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"away_team_slug": "independ-rivadavia",
"country_code": "AR",
"country_display_name": "Argentina",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ar.svg",
"country_id": 6,
"country_name": "Argentina",
"fixture_id": 1493002,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Argentina",
"home_team_display_name": "Atletico Tucuman",
"home_team_id": 455,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/455.webp",
"home_team_name": "Atletico Tucuman",
"home_team_slug": "atletico-tucuman",
"league_country": "Argentina",
"league_country_display": "Argentina",
"league_display_name": "Liga Profesional de F\u00fatbol",
"league_id": 128,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/128.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Profesional de F\u00fatbol",
"league_name_canonical": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-26 18:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Tucuman",
"venue_name": "Estadio Monumental Jose Fierro"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4302,
"best_odd": 2.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0126,
"ev": -0.0683,
"implied_prob": 0.3361,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3361,
"draw": 0.3206,
"home": 0.3433
},
"model_prob": 0.3068,
"p_final": 0.3235
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.272,
"best_odd": 3.02,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0169,
"ev": -0.083,
"implied_prob": 0.3206,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3361,
"draw": 0.3206,
"home": 0.3433
},
"model_prob": 0.2584,
"p_final": 0.3037
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3882,
"best_odd": 2.82,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0355,
"ev": 0.0683,
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3361,
"draw": 0.3206,
"home": 0.3433
},
"model_prob": 0.4348,
"p_final": 0.3788
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.88,
"edge": -0.0405,
"ev": -0.1165,
"implied_prob": 0.3472,
"model_prob": 0.3068
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.02,
"edge": -0.0727,
"ev": -0.2196,
"implied_prob": 0.3311,
"model_prob": 0.2584
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.82,
"edge": 0.0802,
"ev": 0.2262,
"implied_prob": 0.3546,
"model_prob": 0.4348
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.2,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0683,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2262,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0683,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.6,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.6,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.6
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.2,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atletico Tucuman)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0683,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2262,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.6,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.6,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Atletico Tucuman at 43.5% vs market 34.3%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Atletico Tucuman as the stronger side (43.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.2,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atletico Tucuman",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atletico Tucuman \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.82 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +23% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1493002 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.82 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 6.6/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.6/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Atletico Tucuman).",
"Decision strength: 6.6/10",
"Outlier price +23% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0683,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4348,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2261,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 29.6,
"reasons": [],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.646,
"draw_prob": 0.2584,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4348,
"over_prob": 0.62,
"total_xg": 3.2,
"under_prob": 0.38,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0355,
"ev": 0.0683,
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4348,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atletico Tucuman"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.646,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1493002,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0683,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3068,
"draw": 0.2584,
"home": 0.4348
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Independiente Rivadavia",
"home": "Atletico Tucuman"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.023757,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0683,
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4348,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Atletico Tucuman",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0683,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.82,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3433,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4348,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3546099290780142,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2261,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.6%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1493002,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-26T18:01:40.875598+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Profesional Argentina — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 31 |
| 2 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 30 |
| 3 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 28 |
| 4 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 26 |
| 5 | Independiente | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 24 |
| 7 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 22 |
| 8 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 21 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Platense | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
| 14 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 15 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 24 |
| 2 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 22 | 9 | +13 | 30 |
| 4 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 31 |
| 5 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 28 |
| 6 | Lanús | 16 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 24 |
| 7 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 26 |
| 9 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 |
| 11 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 22 |
| 12 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 19 |
| 13 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 16 |
| 14 | Platense | 16 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 15 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Instituto Córdoba | 16 | 14.2 | 5.0 | +9.2 | 21 |
| 2 | Defensa y Justicia | 16 | 11.9 | 8.5 | +3.4 | 19 |
| 3 | Lanús | 16 | 12.8 | 9.6 | +3.2 | 24 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 16 | 9.2 | 6.0 | +3.2 | 30 |
| 5 | Unión Santa Fe | 16 | 9.1 | 6.2 | +2.9 | 21 |
| 6 | Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 9.7 | 7.2 | +2.5 | 11 |
| 7 | Estudiantes La Plata | 16 | 12.1 | 9.8 | +2.3 | 31 |
| 8 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 16 | 8.7 | 8.6 | +0.1 | 19 |
| 9 | Independiente | 16 | 8.1 | 9.1 | -1.0 | 24 |
| 10 | Talleres Córdoba | 16 | 10.4 | 13.0 | -2.6 | 26 |
| 11 | Newell's Old Boys | 16 | 5.1 | 8.3 | -3.2 | 15 |
| 12 | Central Córdoba de Santiago | 16 | 9.4 | 13.1 | -3.7 | 16 |
| 13 | Platense | 16 | 6.3 | 10.2 | -3.9 | 16 |
| 14 | San Lorenzo | 16 | 4.8 | 8.7 | -3.9 | 22 |
| 15 | Vélez Sarsfield | 16 | 6.1 | 10.1 | -4.0 | 28 |
