The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Galway United at 45.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Galway United Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United | 45.5% | 35.8% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 28.1% | 28.8% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Shelbourne | 26.4% | 35.4% | -9.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Galway United's win probability at 45.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 35.8%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Galway United.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Galway United; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Galway United by 9.8 percentage points (35.8% vs model 45.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Galway United 45.5% · Draw 28.1% · Shelbourne 26.4%
- xG · Galway United 1.64 — Shelbourne 1.05
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 18:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Galway United 2.69 · Draw 3.34 · Shelbourne 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · Galway United 35.8% · Draw 28.8% · Shelbourne 35.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 18:35 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Galway United 2.69 · Draw 3.34 · Shelbourne 2.72
- Implied 1X2 · Galway United 35.8% · Draw 28.8% · Shelbourne 35.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
74/100
· High
- Validation: Pass
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
51/100
Betting Confidence
77/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.69
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Galway United 1–1 Shelbourne
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"no_prob": 46.1,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 53.9,
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{
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},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
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"pick_key": "1X",
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"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "home",
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},
"over_under": {
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Galway United Win",
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}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Shelbourne",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 35.39,
"draw": 28.82,
"home": 35.79
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-28 18:35:27",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-28 18:14:46",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Galway United",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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"gap_pp": 9.7,
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{
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{
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}
},
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{
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},
{
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
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{
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"prob": 7.1
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]
},
"home_xg": 1.64,
"homepage_pick": {
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"best_odds": 2.65,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Home Galway United",
"edge": 7.8,
"ev": 31.2,
"probability": 45.5
},
"market_cards": [
{
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"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.063,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 6.3,
"text": "+6.3%"
},
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"id": "1x2",
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"side_label": "Galway United",
"sort_key": 10206.7,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
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},
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"ev_yes": null,
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"id": "btts",
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"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 46.1,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
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},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
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},
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"ev_over": null,
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"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 0,
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"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 49.6,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
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"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 815.1,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 11.7
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "11/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "11/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"alert_team": "Shelbourne",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.8,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.75,
"hero_label": "Galway United",
"market_prob_pct": 35.8,
"market_team": "Galway United",
"model_prob_pct": 45.5,
"model_team": "Galway United",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Galway United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Galway United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2236,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Galway United at 45.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Galway United as the value side (45.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Galway United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Galway United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.69 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492759 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.69 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Galway United).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4549,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 21.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.59"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.59
}
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "11/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.8461538461538461,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 8.5,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 86,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.75,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.75,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.05,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 21.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.64,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.64,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.64 \u00b7 Away xG 1.05 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +21%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"steam_team": "Shelbourne",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Galway United).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Galway United)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Galway United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2236,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Galway United at 45.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Galway United as the value side (45.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Galway United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Galway United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.69 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492759 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.69 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Galway United).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4549,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 21.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.59"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.59
}
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Galway United 1.64 xG vs Shelbourne 1.05 \u2192 Galway United 45.5%",
"Market: Galway United ~35.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Shelbourne odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Galway United projects stronger on expected goals (+0.59 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.75,
"fair_prob": 45.54,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob": 35.79,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.71,
"fair_prob": 28.11,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 28.82,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.03,
"fair_prob": 26.36,
"label": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob": 35.39,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 50.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 49.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 53.9,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 46.1,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.54,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Galway United",
"market_prob_pct": 35.79,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Shelbourne"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE10",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Galway United\u0027s win probability at 45.5%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 35.8%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.75,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE10.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Galway United",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 35.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.7,
"model_prob_pct": 45.5,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "High reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 86,
"reliability_tier": "high",
"summary": "Galway United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 90,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 51,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Galway United 1.64 xG vs Shelbourne 1.05 \u2192 Galway United 45.5%",
"Market: Galway United ~35.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Shelbourne odds \u2191 +7.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Galway United projects stronger on expected goals (+0.59 xG edge).",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.75,
"hero_label": "Galway United",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Shelbourne odds lengthened \u2191 +7.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Shelbourne has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Galway United.",
"note": "Drift away from Shelbourne \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Galway United.",
"However, Shelbourne has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Shelbourne \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on Galway United.",
"At the same time, Shelbourne has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (11/13) supports the current market view on Shelbourne."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.75,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.4 pp (at 45.5%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.4,
"max_prob_pct": 45.5,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "Galway United",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.8,
"lead": "The model rates Galway United considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.8,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.75,
"edge_pp": 9.75,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.54,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Galway United",
"market_prob_pct": 35.79,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.71,
"edge_pp": -0.71,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 28.82,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.03,
"edge_pp": -9.03,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.36,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Shelbourne",
"market_prob_pct": 35.39,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Shelbourne \u2014 odds lengthened by 7.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Galway United (35.8%).",
"However, Shelbourne has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +7.1%, 11/13) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"Galway United \u2014 market direction supports the model lean."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 37.17,
"closing_odds": 2.69,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 37.17,
"entry_odds": 2.69,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE10",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 11,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.0
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 33m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Shelbourne (7.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"2.72",
"2.55",
"2.38"
],
"display": "2.72 \u2192 2.38 \u2192 2.55",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 105h 33m",
"pick_team": "Shelbourne",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.72"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
2.38,
2.72,
2.55
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,9.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "2.38"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "2.72"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "2.55"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 2.38,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 11/13 sportsbooks on Shelbourne",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Shelbourne",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 2.55,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Shelbourne",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "11/13",
"current_odds": 2.55,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.1%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Shelbourne",
"steam_score": 54,
"steam_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.8,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": 0.12,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Shelbourne",
"away_team_id": 3854,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/3854.webp",
"away_team_name": "Shelbourne",
"away_team_public_id": "5yzfTfk8IcXsCy",
"away_team_slug": "shelbourne",
"country_code": "IE",
"country_display_name": "Ireland",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/ie.svg",
"country_id": 77,
"country_name": "Ireland",
"fixture_id": 1492759,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": 0.03,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Ireland",
"home_team_display_name": "Galway United",
"home_team_id": 3851,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3851.webp",
"home_team_name": "Galway United",
"home_team_public_id": "3LCVkE9ArHBtjH",
"home_team_slug": "galway-united",
"league_country": "Ireland",
"league_country_display": "Ireland",
"league_display_name": "Divisyen Perdana Ireland",
"league_id": 357,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/357.webp",
"league_name": "Divisyen Perdana Ireland",
"league_public_id": "1IkShdACEGEHBz",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-28 18:45:00",
"public_id": "5H8mwXytIf0BPj",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Galway",
"venue_name": "Eamonn Deacy Park"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3893,
"best_odd": 2.72,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.035,
"ev": -0.1325,
"implied_prob": 0.3539,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3539,
"draw": 0.2882,
"home": 0.3579
},
"model_prob": 0.264,
"p_final": 0.3189
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2968,
"best_odd": 3.34,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0021,
"ev": -0.0444,
"implied_prob": 0.2882,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3539,
"draw": 0.2882,
"home": 0.3579
},
"model_prob": 0.2811,
"p_final": 0.2861
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3845,
"best_odd": 2.69,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0373,
"ev": 0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3539,
"draw": 0.2882,
"home": 0.3579
},
"model_prob": 0.4549,
"p_final": 0.3952
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.72,
"edge": -0.1036,
"ev": -0.2818,
"implied_prob": 0.3676,
"model_prob": 0.264
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.34,
"edge": -0.0183,
"ev": -0.0611,
"implied_prob": 0.2994,
"model_prob": 0.2811
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.69,
"edge": 0.0831,
"ev": 0.2236,
"implied_prob": 0.3717,
"model_prob": 0.4549
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.69,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2236,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.063,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 7.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.0
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 9.8,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.8,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Galway United)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.063,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2236,
"confidence_band": "High",
"decision_strength": 7.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.0,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 90,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Galway United at 45.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 35.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Galway United as the value side (45.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, reliability/execution, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.7,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Galway United",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Galway United \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.69 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +22% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492759 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.69 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +6.3% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +6.3% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. Decision Strength 7.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +6.3% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary eligible \u00b7 Decision Strength 7.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "86 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "90 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+6.3% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (Galway United).",
"Decision strength: 7.5/10",
"Outlier price +22% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 86,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4549,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.4%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 21.5,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.59"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.59
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.539,
"draw_prob": 0.2811,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4549,
"over_prob": 0.504,
"total_xg": 2.69,
"under_prob": 0.496,
"xg_diff": 0.59
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0373,
"ev": 0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4549,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Galway United"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.539,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.504,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492759,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.063,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.264,
"draw": 0.2811,
"home": 0.4549
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Shelbourne",
"home": "Galway United"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.028659,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.063,
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4549,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Galway United",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.063,
"consensus_ev_display": "+6.3%",
"consensus_odds": 2.69,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3579,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4549,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.7 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.7,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.3717472118959108,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.2237,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+22.4%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492759,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-28T19:32:00.258994+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Divisyen Perdana Ireland — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 59 |
| 2 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 41 |
| 5 | Dundalk | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 41 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 32 | 9 | 13 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 9 | 11 | 12 | 38 |
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 23 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bohemians | 31 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 56 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 52 | 25 | +27 | 59 |
| 3 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 49 | 31 | +18 | 59 |
| 4 | Dundalk | 32 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 41 |
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Waterford | 32 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 32 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 40 |
| 8 | Galway United | 32 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 38 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 24 | 54 | -30 | 23 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waterford | 32 | 13.0 | 7.8 | +5.2 | 34 |
| 2 | St Patrick's Athletic | 32 | 12.6 | 8.9 | +3.7 | 59 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 31 | 11.5 | 8.2 | +3.3 | 56 |
| 4 | Derry City | 32 | 10.8 | 7.8 | +3.0 | 41 |
| 5 | Shamrock Rovers | 31 | 9.7 | 8.2 | +1.5 | 59 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 32 | 13.0 | 12.1 | +0.9 | 41 |
| 7 | Galway United | 32 | 10.9 | 13.0 | -2.1 | 38 |
| 8 | Shelbourne | 32 | 6.2 | 9.8 | -3.6 | 40 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 32 | 6.4 | 12.3 | -5.9 | 34 |
| 10 | Sligo Rovers | 32 | 8.0 | 14.1 | -6.1 | 23 |
