AI correctly predicted the Bahia win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
B-
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Bahia Bahia ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 1-1, 0-2, 1-2, 0-0 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino | 29.0% | 46.9% | -17.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 26.6% | +2.7 pp | Aligned |
| Bahia | 41.8% | 26.5% | +15.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates RB Bragantino's win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.0%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Bahia win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about RB Bragantino than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Bahia attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 0.97)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Bahia higher (59.7% vs model 41.8%, 17.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Bahia win 2–3).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · RB Bragantino 29.0% · Draw 29.3% · Bahia 41.7%
- xG · RB Bragantino 0.97 — Bahia 1.52
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · RB Bragantino 2.06 · Draw 3.64 · Bahia 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · RB Bragantino 46.9% · Draw 26.6% · Bahia 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 18:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · RB Bragantino 2.06 · Draw 3.64 · Bahia 3.65
- Implied 1X2 · RB Bragantino 46.9% · Draw 26.6% · Bahia 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Bahia win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
54/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
3/100
Monitoring Confidence
19/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.06
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Bahia win · RB Bragantino 2–3 Bahia
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
B-
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "9/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "9/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"alert_team": "Bahia",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 17.9,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.94,
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"market_prob_pct": 26.5,
"market_team": "RB Bragantino",
"model_prob_pct": 41.8,
"model_team": "Bahia",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
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"label": "Disagree",
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"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bahia at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bahia as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
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],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bahia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Bahia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.65 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +52% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492361 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.65 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +52% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.273972602739726,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5224,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.55
}
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "9/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.75,
"evidence": {
"score": 57,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "No strong statistical edge",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (18 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 16.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 7.5,
"steam_coherence": 2.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 57,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 17.94,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 17.94,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.52,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 13.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 0.97,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.52,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 0.97 \u00b7 Away xG 1.52 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +13%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"steam_team": "Bahia",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bahia at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bahia as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bahia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Bahia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.65 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +52% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492361 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.65 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +52% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.273972602739726,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5224,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.55
}
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RB Bragantino 0.97 xG vs Bahia 1.52 \u2192 Bahia 41.8%",
"Market: RB Bragantino ~26.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Bahia odds \u2191 +12.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bahia, but the market has moved away from Bahia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -17.94,
"fair_prob": 29.0,
"label": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob": 46.94,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": 2.68,
"fair_prob": 29.25,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 26.57,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 15.26,
"fair_prob": 41.75,
"label": "Bahia",
"market_prob": 26.49,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.4,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.6,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 50.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 49.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": -17.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob_pct": 46.94,
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"steam_team_name": "Bahia"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The closing market estimates RB Bragantino\u0027s win probability at 46.9%, compared with the model\u0027s estimate of 29.0%, a difference of 17.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_market_ahead",
"max_gap_pp": 17.94,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "Bahia",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 26.5,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 15.3,
"model_prob_pct": 41.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+15.3 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 15.3,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 57,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 20,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 41,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 8,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: RB Bragantino 0.97 xG vs Bahia 1.52 \u2192 Bahia 41.8%",
"Market: RB Bragantino ~26.5% implied",
"Market Drift: Bahia odds \u2191 +12.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Bahia, but the market has moved away from Bahia.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": -17.94,
"hero_label": "RB Bragantino",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Bahia odds lengthened \u2191 +12.1%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.",
"Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing."
],
"follow_up": "However, Bahia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The market is materially more optimistic about RB Bragantino than the current fair estimate.",
"note": "Drift away from Bahia \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The market is materially more optimistic about RB Bragantino than the current fair estimate.",
"However, Bahia has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Bahia \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The market favors RB Bragantino more strongly than the current fair estimate.",
"At the same time, Bahia has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (9/12) supports the current market view on Bahia."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 17.94,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 12.5 pp (at 41.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 12.5,
"max_prob_pct": 41.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "RB Bragantino",
"largest_gap_pp": -17.9,
"lead": "The closing market prices RB Bragantino higher than the statistical model.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 17.9,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -17.94,
"edge_pp": -17.94,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.0,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "RB Bragantino",
"market_prob_pct": 46.94,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": 2.68,
"edge_pp": 2.68,
"fair_prob_pct": 29.25,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 26.57,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 15.26,
"edge_pp": 15.26,
"fair_prob_pct": 41.75,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Bahia",
"market_prob_pct": 26.49,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_market_ahead",
"status_label": "Strong Market Ahead",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Bahia \u2014 odds lengthened by 12.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers RB Bragantino (26.5%).",
"Bahia odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +12.1%, 9/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Bahia, Market \u2192 RB Bragantino, while Bahia odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 48.54,
"closing_odds": 2.06,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 48.54,
"entry_odds": 2.06,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "HT",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 HT",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 9,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.5%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.5
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +4.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 4.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 12.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 180h 49m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Multi-book drift on Bahia (12.1%, 9/12) \u2014 aligned lengthening, market pricing moves against this side.",
"Modest lengthening \u2014 treat as drift tracking rather than steam."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.70",
"3.50",
"3.30"
],
"display": "3.70 \u2192 3.08 \u2192 3.70",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 180h 49m",
"pick_team": "Bahia",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.3,
3.65,
3.7
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,2.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.30"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.70"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.70"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.3,
"page_alert_line": "",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Bahia",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\u2198",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.7,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"summary": "Market moved away from Bahia while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Bahia",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "market_drift",
"signal_label": "Drift",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_subtitle": "Limited conviction",
"steam_tier": "C",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "9/12",
"current_odds": 3.7,
"move_display": "\u2191 +12.1%",
"open_odds": 3.3,
"pick_team": "Bahia",
"steam_score": 37,
"steam_team_name": "Bahia",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 17.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 2,
"away_team_display_name": "Bahia",
"away_team_id": 118,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/118.webp",
"away_team_name": "Bahia",
"away_team_public_id": "1QMvPlZYgYKxNv",
"away_team_slug": "bahia",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492361,
"goals_away": 2,
"goals_home": 2,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 2,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "RB Bragantino",
"home_team_id": 794,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/794.webp",
"home_team_name": "RB Bragantino",
"home_team_public_id": "08KQ5khCCE0NVe",
"home_team_slug": "rb-bragantino",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_public_id": "0wg055kq66Q9K5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-09-05 19:00:00",
"public_id": "4kTMC3mjTnXl3U",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Halftime",
"status_short": "HT",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)"
],
"score": 5.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2315,
"best_odd": 3.65,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": 0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2649,
"draw": 0.2657,
"home": 0.4694
},
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"p_final": 0.3002
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2878,
"best_odd": 3.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0078,
"ev": -0.0047,
"implied_prob": 0.2657,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2649,
"draw": 0.2657,
"home": 0.4694
},
"model_prob": 0.2927,
"p_final": 0.2734
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.329,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.059,
"ev": -0.1545,
"implied_prob": 0.4694,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2649,
"draw": 0.2657,
"home": 0.4694
},
"model_prob": 0.2902,
"p_final": 0.4104
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 3.65,
"edge": 0.1431,
"ev": 0.5225,
"implied_prob": 0.274,
"model_prob": 0.4171
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.64,
"edge": 0.018,
"ev": 0.0655,
"implied_prob": 0.2747,
"model_prob": 0.2927
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.1953,
"ev": -0.4023,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.2902
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.49,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5225,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0956,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.2,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.2
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 17.9,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 17.9,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.5225,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.2,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 20,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Bahia at 41.7%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 26.5%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Bahia as the value side (41.7%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 15.2,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Bahia",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Bahia \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.65 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +52% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492361 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.65 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +9.6% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +9.6% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +9.6% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.7/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +9.6% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.7/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "57 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "20 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+9.6% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"Decision strength: 3.7/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +52% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 57,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "The market has moved away from Bahia, but the model still strongly favours Bahia.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "observe",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.273972602739726,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5224,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.2%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 12.6,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.55"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.55
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.501,
"draw_prob": 0.2927,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4171,
"over_prob": 0.454,
"total_xg": 2.49,
"under_prob": 0.546,
"xg_diff": 0.55
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0352,
"ev": 0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bahia"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
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},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.501,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
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},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
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"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492361,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0956,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
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"draw": 0.2927,
"home": 0.2902
},
"reason_codes": [
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Bahia",
"home": "RB Bragantino"
},
"top_pick": {
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"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0956,
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"market": "1x2",
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"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Bahia",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0956,
"consensus_ev_display": "+9.6%",
"consensus_odds": 3.65,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2649,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4171,
"raw_edge_display": "+15.2 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 15.2,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.273972602739726,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.5224,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+52.2%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492361,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-09-05T19:57:11.909187+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie A Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | Atlético-MG | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 28 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Santos | 27 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 38 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 28 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético-MG | 27 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 28 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 27 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 28 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 28 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 27 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
| 20 | Vitória | 28 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 28 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 46 |
| 2 | Santos | 27 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 38 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 28 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 60 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 31 |
| 5 | Atlético-MG | 27 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 28 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 49 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 28 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 48 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 28 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 57 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 28 | 11.0 | 10.9 | +0.1 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 28 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 32 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 28 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 27 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 18 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 28 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Gremio | 28 | 5.3 | 13.5 | -8.2 | 29 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
