The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).
The model had projected Atlético-MG at 45.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Atlético-MG Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-0 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 26.1% | 47.0% | -20.9 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.5% | 29.6% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Atlético-MG | 45.4% | 23.4% | +22.0 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Atlético-MG's win probability at 45.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 22.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 0–0.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Atlético-MG; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Atlético-MG by 22.0 percentage points (23.4% vs model 45.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Internacional 26.1% · Draw 28.5% · Atlético-MG 45.5%
- xG · Internacional 1.12 — Atlético-MG 1.54
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 21:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Internacional 2.06 · Draw 3.27 · Atlético-MG 4.13
- Implied 1X2 · Internacional 47.0% · Draw 29.6% · Atlético-MG 23.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Internacional 2.06 · Draw 3.27 · Atlético-MG 4.13
- Implied 1X2 · Internacional 47.0% · Draw 29.6% · Atlético-MG 23.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
52/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
14/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
4.13
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Internacional 0–0 Atlético-MG
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
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}
},
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"away_played": 21,
"away_score_rate": 78.6,
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"home_played": 22,
"home_score_rate": 67.4,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"pick": "Yes",
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},
"correct_score": {
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{
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{
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{
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{
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{
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"prob": 7.8
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
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"options": [
{
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},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 71.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"prob": 73.9
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
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"pick_prob": 73.9
},
"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 26.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG"
},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 2.66,
"away_avg_scored": 1.3,
"confidence": "low",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 49.6,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 50.3,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
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"edge": 87.7,
"implied_prob": 24.2,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG Win",
"model_prob": 45.5,
"odds": 4.13
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 23.43,
"draw": 29.59,
"home": 46.98
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-08-22 21:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-08-22 21:00:21",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Internacional",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.98,
"gap_pp": -20.93,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 26.05
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 29.59,
"gap_pp": -1.1,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 28.49
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.43,
"gap_pp": 22.03,
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"model_pct": 45.46
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 46.67,
"gap_pp": 2.93,
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"model_pct": 49.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.33,
"gap_pp": -3.03,
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"model_pct": 50.3
}
],
"movement": [
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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},
{
"closing": 3.27,
"early": 3.27,
"implied_closing_pct": 29.59,
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},
{
"closing": 4.13,
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"implied_closing_pct": 23.43,
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},
{
"closing": 2.08,
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},
{
"closing": 1.82,
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}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 22.0,
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"lean_card": {
"diff_pp": -3.3,
"ev": -0.2135,
"has_edge": false,
"label": "1-1",
"market_odds": 6.5,
"market_prob": 0.1538,
"market_prob_pct": 15.4,
"model_prob": 0.121,
"model_prob_pct": 12.1,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"status_key": "no_value"
},
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
"top5": [
{
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 12.1
},
{
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 10.8
},
{
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 9.3
},
{
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 8.3
},
{
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 7.8
}
]
},
"home_xg": 1.12,
"homepage_pick": {
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"best_odds": 4.13,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Away Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"edge": 21.2,
"ev": 0.0,
"probability": 45.5
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 4.13,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.0895,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 8.9,
"text": "+8.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0895,
"max_ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 8.9,
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},
"model_prob": 0.4546,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+87.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"sort_key": 10230.55,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"no_prob": 45.5,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 54.5
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
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"n_bookmakers": 0,
"over_prob": 49.6,
"sort_key": 2050.0,
"tier": "pass",
"under_prob": 50.3,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 816.3,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 12.1
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "14/14",
"alert_breadth_note": "14/14 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +33.2%",
"alert_team": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 22.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 21.98,
"hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"market_prob_pct": 23.4,
"market_team": "Internacional",
"model_prob_pct": 45.4,
"model_team": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8775,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico-MG at 45.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico-MG as the value side (45.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atl\u00e9tico-MG \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.13 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +88% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492346 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.13 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +88% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.13,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4546,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24213075060532688,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+87.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "14/14",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 70,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Recent market move conflicts with the model favourite",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 3,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (22 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift conflicts with model",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.0,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 0.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 55,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.98,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.98,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.54,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.0,
"elevated": false,
"home_xg": 1.12,
"impact_note": "",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 1.54,
"status_label": "Within typical league range",
"summary": "Home xG 1.12 \u00b7 Away xG 1.54 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +14%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.2,
"steam_conflicts": true,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +33.2%",
"steam_team": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8775,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico-MG at 45.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico-MG as the value side (45.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atl\u00e9tico-MG \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.13 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +88% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492346 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.13 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +88% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.13,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4546,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24213075060532688,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+87.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Internacional 1.12 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico-MG 1.54 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico-MG 45.4%",
"Market: Internacional ~23.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Atl\u00e9tico-MG odds \u2191 +33.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": -20.91,
"fair_prob": 26.07,
"label": "Internacional",
"market_prob": 46.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.08,
"fair_prob": 28.51,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 29.59,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": 21.98,
"fair_prob": 45.41,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"market_prob": 23.43,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 49.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 50.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 54.5,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 45.5,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 21.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.41,
"hero_side": "away",
"hero_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"market_prob_pct": 23.43,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Atl\u00e9tico-MG\u0027s win probability at 45.4%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 23.4%, a difference of 22.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 21.98,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Conflicts with model",
"positive": false
},
"market_prob_pct": 23.4,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 22.0,
"model_prob_pct": 45.4,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 55,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG. This disagreement reduces confidence and prevents a Primary bet.",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Monitoring Confidence",
"score": 15,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Internacional 1.12 xG vs Atl\u00e9tico-MG 1.54 \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico-MG 45.4%",
"Market: Internacional ~23.4% implied",
"Market Drift: Atl\u00e9tico-MG odds \u2191 +33.2%"
],
"one_liner": "Model favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 21.98,
"hero_label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"hero_side": "away",
"market_activity": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG odds lengthened \u2191 +33.2%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.98,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 16.9 pp (at 45.4%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 16.9,
"max_prob_pct": 45.4,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"largest_gap_pp": 22.0,
"lead": "The model rates Atl\u00e9tico-MG considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 22.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": -20.91,
"edge_pp": -20.91,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.07,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Internacional",
"market_prob_pct": 46.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.08,
"edge_pp": -1.08,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.51,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 29.59,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": 21.98,
"edge_pp": 21.98,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.41,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"market_prob_pct": 23.43,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Internacional (23.4%).",
"However, Atl\u00e9tico-MG has seen one of the strongest multi-book drifts of the day (\u2191 +33.2%, 14/14) \u2014 odds lengthened, not shortened.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Atl\u00e9tico-MG, Market \u2192 Internacional, while Atl\u00e9tico-MG odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 24.21,
"closing_odds": 4.13,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 24.21,
"entry_odds": 4.13,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 14,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +33.2%",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.2
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +22.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 22.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 2,
"bookmaker_name": "Marathonbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 11,
"bookmaker_name": "1xBet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +21.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 21.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +20.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 20.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +19.4%",
"odds_delta_pct": 19.4
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 21,
"bookmaker_name": "888Sport",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +12.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 12.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +10.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 10.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +9.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 9.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 34,
"bookmaker_name": "Superbet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +8.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 8.3
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 1,
"bookmaker_name": "10Bet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
}
],
"books_total": 14,
"breadth_display": "14/14",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +33.2%",
"move_pct_abs": 33.2,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"14/14 books lengthened Atl\u00e9tico-MG together (33.2% drift, score 69) \u2014 broad market fade, not a single-book blip.",
"Noticeable drift \u2014 odds lengthened with multi-book confirmation (not steam)."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 33.2,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.33",
"3.79",
"3.25"
],
"display": "4.33 \u2192 3.10 \u2192 4.33",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 159h",
"pick_team": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
4.13,
4.33
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,3.3 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.33"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.33"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "Market drift alert: Atl\u00e9tico-MG odds \u2191 +33.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"phase_label": "Market drift",
"phase_tip": "Broad lengthening \u2014 market pricing moves against the tracked side.",
"pick_team": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "Market drift alert: Atl\u00e9tico-MG odds \u2191 +33.2% \u2014 pricing moves against this side",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "fade",
"signal_icon": "\ud83d\udcc9",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.33,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +33.2%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Market moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG while the model still favours another side.",
"team": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"tone": "against"
},
"signal_key": "strong_drift",
"signal_label": "Strong drift",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_subtitle": "Strong sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "A",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "14/14",
"current_odds": 4.33,
"move_display": "\u2191 +33.2%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"steam_score": 69,
"steam_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"steam_tier": "A"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 22.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"away_team_id": 1062,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1062.webp",
"away_team_name": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"away_team_public_id": "4coFW7kcWn8wav",
"away_team_slug": "atletico-mg",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492346,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Internacional",
"home_team_id": 119,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/119.webp",
"home_team_name": "Internacional",
"home_team_public_id": "2d3lx3uLKSotuw",
"home_team_slug": "internacional",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_public_id": "0wg055kq66Q9K5",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-08-22 21:30:00",
"public_id": "1DaGXkVZPHz36y",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Porto Alegre",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1339,
"best_odd": 4.13,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": 0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2343,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.4698
},
"model_prob": 0.4546,
"p_final": 0.2638
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2951,
"best_odd": 3.27,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0032,
"ev": -0.0429,
"implied_prob": 0.2959,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2343,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.4698
},
"model_prob": 0.2849,
"p_final": 0.2927
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3087,
"best_odd": 2.06,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0646,
"ev": -0.1654,
"implied_prob": 0.4698,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.2343,
"draw": 0.2959,
"home": 0.4698
},
"model_prob": 0.2605,
"p_final": 0.4051
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 4.13,
"edge": 0.2125,
"ev": 0.8775,
"implied_prob": 0.2421,
"model_prob": 0.4546
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.27,
"edge": -0.0209,
"ev": -0.0682,
"implied_prob": 0.3058,
"model_prob": 0.2849
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.06,
"edge": -0.225,
"ev": -0.4635,
"implied_prob": 0.4854,
"model_prob": 0.2605
}
},
"btts": {
"btts_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"market_first": {
"available": false
},
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"ou_ev_mode": "unavailable",
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.66,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8775,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0895,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 3.5,
"score_before_guard": 5.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 3.0,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"score": 3.5,
"score_pre_penalty": 3.0
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"key": "conflict",
"label": "Disagree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 22.0,
"summary": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG."
},
"alignment_key": "conflict",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.8775,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 3.5,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 3.0,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 15,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The Decision Model estimates Atl\u00e9tico-MG at 45.5%, compared with a no-vig market probability of 23.4%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "Decision Model identifies Atl\u00e9tico-MG as the value side (45.5%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market pricing conflicts with the model lean",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model\u2013market disagreement blocks Primary sizing",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 22.0,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG.",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": null,
"codes": [
"market_conflict",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_conflict",
"detail": "Model lean and market pricing / drift are not aligned.",
"name": "Market Conflict",
"short": "Market Conflict",
"subtype": "drift_against_model",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Atl\u00e9tico-MG \u00b7 decimal odds ~4.13 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +88% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492346 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22484.13 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +8.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +8.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +8.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration Clear \u2705 \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 3.5/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +8.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: Clear \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 3.5/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "ok"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "55 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "15 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": false,
"value": "conflict"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+8.9% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 4,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"The market has moved away from Atl\u00e9tico-MG, but the model still strongly favours Atl\u00e9tico-MG.",
"Decision strength: 3.5/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +88% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 55,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market steam conflicts with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Clear xG separation"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.13,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4546,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24213075060532688,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+87.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "ok",
"deviation_pct": 14.1,
"reasons": [
"Clear xG separation gap=0.42"
],
"recommended_action": "ok",
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null,
"xg_separation": {
"band": "clear",
"block_value_alert": false,
"separation_score": 5,
"strength_delta": 0.5,
"xg_gap": 0.42
}
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.545,
"draw_prob": 0.2849,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4546,
"over_prob": 0.496,
"total_xg": 2.66,
"under_prob": 0.503,
"xg_diff": 0.42
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 4.13,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0295,
"ev": 0.0895,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4546,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.545,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"decision_layer": {
"available": false
},
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.503,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1492346,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0895,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.5,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4546,
"draw": 0.2849,
"home": 0.2605
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"home": "Internacional"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.040687,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0895,
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4546,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Atl\u00e9tico-MG",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0895,
"consensus_ev_display": "+8.9%",
"consensus_odds": 4.13,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2343,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4546,
"raw_edge_display": "+22.0 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 22.0,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.24213075060532688,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.8775,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+87.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492346,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-08-22T21:29:07.470376+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie A Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 56 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 54 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 13 | 7 | 7 | 46 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 27 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 45 |
| 5 | Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 43 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 42 |
| 7 | Atlético-MG | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 39 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36 |
| 10 | Santos | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 33 |
| 12 | Vitória | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 13 | Corinthians | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 14 | Botafogo | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 29 |
| 16 | Gremio | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 17 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 28 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 26 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 17 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 26 | 51 | 21 | +30 | 54 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 27 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 56 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 41 | 31 | +10 | 46 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 27 | 41 | 35 | +6 | 45 |
| 5 | Bahia | 26 | 40 | 32 | +8 | 43 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 42 |
| 7 | Santos | 26 | 39 | 39 | 0 | 35 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 26 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 32 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 27 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético-MG | 26 | 35 | 31 | +4 | 39 |
| 11 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 32 | 29 | +3 | 36 |
| 12 | São Paulo | 26 | 31 | 30 | +1 | 33 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 27 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 29 |
| 14 | Internacional | 27 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 28 |
| 15 | Remo | 26 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 28 |
| 17 | Gremio | 26 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 28 |
| 18 | Chapecoense | 26 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 17 |
| 19 | Corinthians | 26 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
| 20 | Vitória | 27 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 26 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 43 |
| 2 | Santos | 26 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 35 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 26 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 54 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 26 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 28 |
| 5 | Atlético-MG | 26 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 39 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 26 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 27 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 46 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 27 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 45 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 27 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 56 |
| 10 | São Paulo | 26 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 33 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 26 | 10.1 | 10.3 | -0.2 | 32 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 26 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 27 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 42 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 27 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 29 |
| 15 | Remo | 26 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 27 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 26 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 17 |
| 18 | Internacional | 27 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 27 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Gremio | 26 | 4.7 | 12.6 | -7.9 | 28 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
