The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Internacional at 45.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Internacional Lukis ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 1-1 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional | 45.8% | 24.8% | +21.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 26.1% | 27.1% | -1.1 pp | Aligned |
| Flamengo | 28.1% | 48.1% | -20.0 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Internacional's win probability at 45.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 24.8%, a difference of 21.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Internacional; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Internacional by 21.0 percentage points (24.8% vs model 45.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Internacional 45.8% · Draw 26.1% · Flamengo 28.1%
- xG · Internacional 2.03 — Flamengo 1.20
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 21:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Internacional 3.90 · Draw 3.56 · Flamengo 2.01
- Implied 1X2 · Internacional 24.8% · Draw 27.1% · Flamengo 48.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 22:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Internacional 3.90 · Draw 3.56 · Flamengo 2.01
- Implied 1X2 · Internacional 24.8% · Draw 27.1% · Flamengo 48.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 29, 2026 · 22:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Cautious / Wait
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Keputusan Sejarah
Wait
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
46/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
0/100
Monitoring Confidence
13/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
3.9
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Draw · Internacional 1–1 Flamengo
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"afp_draw_prob": 0.2609,
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"away_win_prob": 0.2811,
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"bayes_applied": 1,
"btts_no_prob": 0.38,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.62,
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"over_25_prob": 0.626,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "Winner : Internacional",
"percent_away": "50%",
"percent_draw": "50%",
"percent_home": "0%",
"winner_name": "Flamengo"
},
"away_xg": 1.2,
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},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Internacional"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
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"odd": 3.9
}
],
"risk_color": "#f44336",
"risk_key": "high_risk",
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"label": "Home",
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"market_odds": 3.9,
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"overround": 3.5,
"prob_edge": 20.2,
"value_pct": 78.9,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 19,
"away_score_rate": 69.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 20,
"home_score_rate": 86.9,
"no_prob": 38.0,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 62.0,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 62.0
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.2,
"home_expected": 2.03,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.6
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 8.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 6.6
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Internacional or Draw",
"prob": 71.9
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Internacional or Flamengo",
"prob": 73.9
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Flamengo",
"prob": 54.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "Internacional or Flamengo",
"pick_prob": 73.9
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 28.1,
"draw_pct": 26.1,
"home_pct": 45.8,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Internacional"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.23,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.1,
"over_prob": 62.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.23,
"under_prob": 37.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 78.9,
"implied_prob": 25.6,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Internacional Win",
"model_prob": 45.9,
"odds": 3.9
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Flamengo",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 48.08,
"draw": 27.14,
"home": 24.78
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-29 22:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-29 21:59:27",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Internacional",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.78,
"gap_pp": 21.06,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 45.84
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.14,
"gap_pp": -1.05,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 26.09
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.08,
"gap_pp": -20.01,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 28.07
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.71,
"gap_pp": 13.89,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 62.6
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.29,
"gap_pp": -13.89,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 37.4
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 3.9,
"early": 3.9,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.78,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.78,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.56,
"early": 3.56,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.14,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.14,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.01,
"early": 2.01,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.08,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.08,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.99,
"early": 1.99,
"implied_closing_pct": 48.71,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 48.71,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.89,
"early": 1.89,
"implied_closing_pct": 51.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 51.29,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.8
}
},
"home_xg": 2.03,
"homepage_pick": {
"best_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"best_odds": 3.9,
"confidence": "lean",
"display_label": "Home Internacional",
"edge": 20.2,
"ev": 0.0,
"probability": 45.8
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "wait",
"authority_note": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1349,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.5,
"text": "+13.5%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1349,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 13.5,
"text": "+13.5%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.8%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Internacional",
"sort_key": 10271.41,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 62.6,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 37.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 38.0,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 62.0
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.4,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.8
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "8/13",
"alert_breadth_note": "8/13 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 21.0,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 21.02,
"hero_label": "Internacional",
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"market_team": "Flamengo",
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"model_team": "Internacional",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Internacional), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Internacional), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7877,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Internacional at 45.8% vs market 24.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Internacional as the stronger side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Internacional",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Internacional \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +79% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492316 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Internacional), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +79% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "wait",
"books_breadth_display": "8/13",
"breadth_ratio": 0.6153846153846154,
"evidence": {
"score": 86,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (21 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (50%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 14.5,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 6.2,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 56,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 21.02,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 21.02,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.2,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.03,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.03,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.03 \u00b7 Away xG 1.20 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +50%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": true,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market favour the same side (Internacional), but pricing still diverges by 21.0 pp.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Internacional), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Internacional), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7877,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Internacional at 45.8% vs market 24.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Internacional as the stronger side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Internacional",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Internacional \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +79% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492316 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Internacional), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +79% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"tier": "wait"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Internacional 2.03 xG vs Flamengo 1.20 \u2192 Internacional 45.8%",
"Market: Flamengo ~24.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Internacional, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 21.02,
"fair_prob": 45.8,
"label": "Internacional",
"market_prob": 24.78,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -1.05,
"fair_prob": 26.09,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 27.14,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -19.97,
"fair_prob": 28.11,
"label": "Flamengo",
"market_prob": 48.08,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.6,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 37.4,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 62.0,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 38.0,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "extreme_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 21.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.8,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Internacional",
"market_prob_pct": 24.78,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Internacional\u0027s win probability at 45.8%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 24.8%, a difference of 21.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 21.02,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": true
},
"divergence_label": "Extreme model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "extreme",
"divergence_level_label": "Extreme divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.",
"divergence_tier": "extreme",
"edge_label": "Extreme disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "extreme_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Internacional",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "medium",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 24.8,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+21.0 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 21.0,
"model_prob_pct": 45.8,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+21.0 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 21.0,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 56,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Internacional \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+21.0 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 36,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 45,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 0,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "wait",
"label": "Wait - No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Internacional 2.03 xG vs Flamengo 1.20 \u2192 Internacional 45.8%",
"Market: Flamengo ~24.8% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +7.7%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Internacional, but market pricing diverges by 21 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "A lead outcome exists, but the match is not one-sided in the model.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Medium",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 21.02,
"hero_label": "Internacional",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +7.7%.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {},
"market_narrative": {},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 21.02,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 17.7 pp (at 45.8%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 17.7,
"max_prob_pct": 45.8,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "extreme",
"largest_gap_label": "Internacional",
"largest_gap_pp": 21.0,
"lead": "The model rates Internacional considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "extreme",
"max_gap_pp": 21.0,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 21.02,
"edge_pp": 21.02,
"fair_prob_pct": 45.8,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Internacional",
"market_prob_pct": 24.78,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -1.05,
"edge_pp": -1.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 26.09,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 27.14,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -19.97,
"edge_pp": -19.97,
"fair_prob_pct": 28.11,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Flamengo",
"market_prob_pct": 48.08,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Flamengo (24.8%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +7.7%, 8/13) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 Internacional, Market \u2192 Flamengo, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 25.64,
"closing_odds": 3.9,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 25.64,
"entry_odds": 3.9,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 8,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 32,
"bookmaker_name": "Betano",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.8%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.8
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +3.0%",
"odds_delta_pct": 3.0
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 9,
"bookmaker_name": "Dafabet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.3%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.3
}
],
"books_total": 13,
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"move_pct_abs": 7.7,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 111h 6m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Bet365 led repricing on Draw (7.7%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 7.7,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"3.56",
"3.41",
"3.25"
],
"display": "3.56 \u2192 3.08 \u2192 3.50",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 111h 6m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.56"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.08"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.25,
3.56,
3.5
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,0.0 56.0,3.5",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.25"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "3.56"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "3.50"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.25,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 8/13 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Bet365",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 3.5,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "8/13",
"current_odds": 3.5,
"move_display": "\u2191 +7.7%",
"open_odds": 3.25,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 46,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 21.0,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Flamengo",
"away_team_id": 127,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/127.webp",
"away_team_name": "Flamengo",
"away_team_slug": "flamengo",
"country_code": "BR",
"country_display_name": "Brazil",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/br.svg",
"country_id": 24,
"country_name": "Brazil",
"fixture_id": 1492316,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "Brazil",
"home_team_display_name": "Internacional",
"home_team_id": 119,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/119.webp",
"home_team_name": "Internacional",
"home_team_slug": "internacional",
"league_country": "Brazil",
"league_country_display": "Brazil",
"league_display_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_id": 71,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/71.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A Brazil",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-29 22:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Porto Alegre",
"venue_name": null
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.315,
"best_odd": 2.01,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.063,
"ev": -0.1603,
"implied_prob": 0.4808,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4808,
"draw": 0.2714,
"home": 0.2478
},
"model_prob": 0.2807,
"p_final": 0.4178
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2953,
"best_odd": 3.56,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0031,
"ev": -0.0447,
"implied_prob": 0.2714,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4808,
"draw": 0.2714,
"home": 0.2478
},
"model_prob": 0.2609,
"p_final": 0.2683
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.2052,
"best_odd": 3.9,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0432,
"ev": 0.1349,
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4808,
"draw": 0.2714,
"home": 0.2478
},
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"p_final": 0.291
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.01,
"edge": -0.2168,
"ev": -0.4358,
"implied_prob": 0.4975,
"model_prob": 0.2807
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 3.56,
"edge": -0.02,
"ev": -0.0712,
"implied_prob": 0.2809,
"model_prob": 0.2609
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 3.9,
"edge": 0.202,
"ev": 0.7877,
"implied_prob": 0.2564,
"model_prob": 0.4584
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.23,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7877,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1349,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"guard_capped": true,
"score": 4.8,
"score_before_guard": 6.0,
"score_v1_legacy": 3.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 4.8,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 4.8,
"score_pre_penalty": 4.8
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "wait",
"final_decision": {
"action": "wait",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 21.1,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Internacional), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.7877,
"confidence_band": "Moderate\u2013Low",
"decision_strength": 4.8,
"decision_strength_v1": 3.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 4.8,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 36,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Internacional at 45.8% vs market 24.8%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Internacional as the stronger side (45.8%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 21.1,
"gates_failed": [
"Reliability below 65"
],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Wait - No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u23f8",
"label": "Wait for validation",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Internacional",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"calibration_mode": "soft",
"codes": [
"market_quality",
"calibration_risk"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Internacional \u00b7 decimal odds ~3.90 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +79% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1492316 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22483.90 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +13.5% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +13.5% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Reliability below 65",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus reliability/execution/calibration gates (Decision Strength is explain-only). Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +13.5% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. Decision Strength 4.8/10 (explain only, not a Primary gate). If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +13.5% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary blocked \u00b7 Decision Strength 4.8/10 (display only)",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": false,
"value": "56 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": false,
"value": "36 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+13.5% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": false,
"value": "false"
}
],
"passed": 5,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Internacional), but pricing still diverges by 21.1 pp.",
"Decision strength: 4.8/10",
"Reliability below 65",
"Outlier price +79% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 56,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2014 Strength alone does not block Primary (v2.5+); still check reliability/execution/EV hard gates.",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Model validation or guard rules block actionable value signals.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "wait",
"validation_ok": false,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.8%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 50.4,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 50%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.62,
"draw_prob": 0.2609,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4584,
"over_prob": 0.626,
"total_xg": 3.23,
"under_prob": 0.374,
"xg_diff": 0.83
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"guard_active": true,
"guard_level": "extreme",
"guard_message": "Model validation failed \u2014 value signals on 1X2 are not actionable until inputs are verified.",
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"decision": "guard_blocked",
"decision_before_guard": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0432,
"ev": 0.1349,
"guard_blocked": true,
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Internacional"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.62,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.626,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1492316,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1349,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.5,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2807,
"draw": 0.2609,
"home": 0.4584
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Flamengo",
"home": "Internacional"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.049471,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1349,
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Internacional",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1349,
"consensus_ev_display": "+13.5%",
"consensus_odds": 3.9,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.2478,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.4584,
"raw_edge_display": "+21.1 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 21.1,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.25641025641025644,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.7878,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+78.8%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1492316,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-29T22:29:07.091582+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Serie A Brazil — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 57 |
| 3 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 49 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 48 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 13 | 6 | 9 | 45 |
| 7 | Atlético-MG | 27 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 40 |
| 8 | Santos | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 38 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 38 |
| 10 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 36 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 28 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitória | 28 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 33 |
| 14 | Corinthians | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 32 |
| 16 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 31 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 29 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 28 |
| 19 | Remo | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 27 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 18 |
| 20 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 28 | 55 | 23 | +32 | 60 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 28 | 47 | 21 | +26 | 57 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 28 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 48 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 43 | 32 | +11 | 49 |
| 5 | Bahia | 28 | 43 | 35 | +8 | 46 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 | Santos | 27 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 38 |
| 8 | Botafogo | 28 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 35 |
| 9 | Coritiba | 28 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 38 |
| 10 | Atlético-MG | 27 | 36 | 32 | +4 | 40 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 31 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 33 | 31 | +2 | 36 |
| 13 | Mirassol | 28 | 33 | 42 | -9 | 32 |
| 14 | São Paulo | 27 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 36 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 23 |
| 16 | Internacional | 28 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 17 | Gremio | 28 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 29 |
| 18 | Corinthians | 28 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 32 |
| 19 | Chapecoense | 27 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 18 |
| 20 | Vitória | 28 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 33 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 28 | 12.2 | 6.9 | +5.3 | 46 |
| 2 | Santos | 27 | 9.9 | 6.6 | +3.3 | 38 |
| 3 | Flamengo | 28 | 9.0 | 5.7 | +3.3 | 60 |
| 4 | Vasco da Gama | 27 | 9.2 | 6.1 | +3.1 | 31 |
| 5 | Atlético-MG | 27 | 5.9 | 2.9 | +3.0 | 40 |
| 6 | Corinthians | 28 | 7.2 | 4.7 | +2.5 | 32 |
| 7 | Athletico Paranaense | 28 | 10.2 | 8.1 | +2.1 | 49 |
| 8 | Fluminense | 28 | 8.7 | 6.8 | +1.9 | 48 |
| 9 | Palmeiras | 28 | 8.2 | 6.5 | +1.7 | 57 |
| 10 | Botafogo | 28 | 11.0 | 10.9 | +0.1 | 35 |
| 11 | São Paulo | 27 | 4.9 | 4.8 | +0.1 | 36 |
| 12 | RB Bragantino | 27 | 4.9 | 5.7 | -0.8 | 36 |
| 13 | Cruzeiro | 28 | 9.3 | 10.2 | -0.9 | 45 |
| 14 | Mirassol | 28 | 7.1 | 9.0 | -1.9 | 32 |
| 15 | Remo | 28 | 5.6 | 7.7 | -2.1 | 23 |
| 16 | Coritiba | 28 | 4.9 | 7.1 | -2.2 | 38 |
| 17 | Chapecoense | 27 | 7.3 | 9.9 | -2.6 | 18 |
| 18 | Internacional | 28 | 8.8 | 11.5 | -2.7 | 28 |
| 19 | Vitória | 28 | 6.6 | 11.7 | -5.1 | 33 |
| 20 | Gremio | 28 | 5.3 | 13.5 | -8.2 | 29 |
| 21 | Chapecoense B | 20 | — | — | — | 10 |
