The model missed the final outcome (Inter Miami win 0–1).
The model had projected CF Montreal at 42.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 CF Montreal Inter Miami ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-2, 1-2, 3-1 0-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montreal | 42.9% | 33.0% | +9.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 22.9% | 23.7% | -0.8 pp | Aligned |
| Inter Miami | 34.3% | 43.3% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates CF Montreal's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 33.0%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Inter Miami win 0–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CF Montreal.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on CF Montreal by 9.9 percentage points (33.0% vs model 42.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:46 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · CF Montreal 42.9% · Draw 22.9% · Inter Miami 34.2%
- xG · CF Montreal 2.06 — Inter Miami 1.84
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · CF Montreal 2.93 · Draw 4.08 · Inter Miami 2.23
- Implied 1X2 · CF Montreal 33.0% · Draw 23.7% · Inter Miami 43.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · CF Montreal 2.93 · Draw 4.08 · Inter Miami 2.23
- Implied 1X2 · CF Montreal 33.0% · Draw 23.7% · Inter Miami 43.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 25, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Inter Miami win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
68/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pass
- High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
17/100
Monitoring Confidence
30/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.93
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Inter Miami win · CF Montreal 0–1 Inter Miami
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
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"facts": {
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"home_win_prob": 0.4285,
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"over_25_prob": 0.747,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.253
},
"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
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"winner_name": "Inter Miami"
},
"away_xg": 1.84,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
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"edge": 0.0992,
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
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{
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}
],
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"overround": 3.5,
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"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 2,
"away_played": 16,
"away_score_rate": 84.1,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 6,
"home_played": 16,
"home_score_rate": 87.3,
"no_prob": 25.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 74.4,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"yes_prob": 74.4
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.84,
"home_expected": 2.06,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 7.7
},
{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 7.3
},
{
"away": 2,
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"prob": 7.1
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 5.4
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "CF Montreal or Draw",
"prob": 65.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "CF Montreal or Inter Miami",
"prob": 77.2
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Inter Miami",
"prob": 57.2
}
],
"pick_key": "12",
"pick_label": "CF Montreal or Inter Miami",
"pick_prob": 77.2
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 34.3,
"draw_pct": 22.9,
"home_pct": 42.9,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "CF Montreal"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "+1.5",
"avg_total": 3.9,
"away_avg_scored": 2.6,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 1.4,
"over_prob": 74.7,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 74.7,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.9,
"under_prob": 25.3
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 25.8,
"implied_prob": 34.1,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "CF Montreal Win",
"model_prob": 42.9,
"odds": 2.93
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Inter Miami",
"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 43.33,
"draw": 23.68,
"home": 32.98
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-25 23:29:12",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-25 23:02:15",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "CF Montreal",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 32.98,
"gap_pp": 9.92,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 42.9
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.68,
"gap_pp": -0.81,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 22.87
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 43.33,
"gap_pp": -9.1,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 34.23
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 68.54,
"gap_pp": 6.16,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 74.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 31.46,
"gap_pp": -6.16,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 25.3
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 2.93,
"early": 2.93,
"implied_closing_pct": 32.98,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 32.98,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 4.08,
"early": 4.08,
"implied_closing_pct": 23.68,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 23.68,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 2.23,
"early": 2.23,
"implied_closing_pct": 43.33,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.4,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 3.05,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"kind": "1x2_h"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.9
}
},
"home_xg": 2.06,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "primary",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"ev": 0.0776,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.8,
"text": "+7.8%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.0776,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 7.8,
"text": "+7.8%"
},
"model_prob": 0.429,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.257,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.7%",
"show_primary_label": true,
"side_label": "CF Montreal",
"sort_key": 10219.84,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_over": null,
"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 74.7,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 25.3,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
"ev_no": null,
"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 25.6,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 74.4
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 803.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 7.9
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "7/12",
"alert_breadth_note": "7/12 sportsbooks confirmed",
"alert_move": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"alert_team": "Draw",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 9.9,
"has_alert": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.87,
"hero_label": "CF Montreal",
"market_prob_pct": 33.0,
"market_team": "Inter Miami",
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"model_team": "CF Montreal",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "\u2713",
"status_key": "aligned",
"status_label": "Reliable prediction",
"status_line": "Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CF Montreal)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CF Montreal)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0776,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2569,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees CF Montreal at 42.9% vs market 33.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies CF Montreal as the stronger side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, Decision Strength, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CF Montreal",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side CF Montreal \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490347 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CF Montreal).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0776,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.429,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.257,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "primary",
"books_breadth_display": "7/12",
"breadth_ratio": 0.5833333333333334,
"evidence": {
"score": 90,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Statistical edge detected",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift supports model side (direction only \u2014 not pricing convergence)",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation passed",
"status": "pass"
}
],
"stars": 5,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Pass",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"label": "Market drift aligns with model",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (53%+)",
"tone": "caution"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 20.1,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 5.8,
"steam_coherence": 10.0,
"validation": 30.0
},
"score": 77,
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 9.87,
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.87,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.84,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 53.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.06,
"impact_note": "Elevated xG vs league baseline \u2014 treat totals leans cautiously; prefer smaller discretionary stakes if you act.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.06,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.06 \u00b7 Away xG 1.84 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +53%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": true,
"mv_status": "pass",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1,
"steam_conflicts": false,
"steam_move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"steam_team": "Draw",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CF Montreal).",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CF Montreal)."
},
"authority": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CF Montreal)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0776,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2569,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees CF Montreal at 42.9% vs market 33.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies CF Montreal as the stronger side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, Decision Strength, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CF Montreal",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side CF Montreal \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490347 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CF Montreal).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0776,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.429,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.257,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"tier": "actionable"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CF Montreal 2.06 xG vs Inter Miami 1.84 \u2192 CF Montreal 42.9%",
"Market: Inter Miami ~33.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean CF Montreal with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 9.87,
"fair_prob": 42.85,
"label": "CF Montreal",
"market_prob": 32.98,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -0.81,
"fair_prob": 22.87,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.68,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob": 34.28,
"label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob": 43.33,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 74.7,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 25.3,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 74.4,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 25.6,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "mild_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 9.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.85,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "CF Montreal",
"market_prob_pct": 32.98,
"status": "mild_value",
"steam_team_name": "Draw"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates CF Montreal\u0027s win probability at 42.9%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 33.0%, a difference of 9.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"edge_status": "mild_value",
"max_gap_pp": 9.87,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Moderate model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "moderate",
"divergence_level_label": "Moderate divergence",
"divergence_note": "Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.",
"divergence_tier": "moderate",
"edge_label": "Mild disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "mild_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Balanced match",
"favourite_label": "CF Montreal",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "low",
"headline": "Balanced match",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 33.0,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 9.9,
"model_prob_pct": 42.9,
"outcome_separation_tier": "medium",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"label": "Moderate",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_moderate"
},
"reliability_headline": "Moderate reliability",
"reliability_icon": "\u2713",
"reliability_score": 77,
"reliability_tier": "moderate",
"summary": "CF Montreal \u2014 market direction supports the model lean.",
"tier": "balanced",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Pass",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 80,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 42,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 50,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "primary",
"label": "Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: CF Montreal 2.06 xG vs Inter Miami 1.84 \u2192 CF Montreal 42.9%",
"Market: Inter Miami ~33.0% implied",
"Market Drift: Draw odds \u2191 +5.1%"
],
"one_liner": "Model and market both lean CF Montreal with no major conflict.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "Three outcomes remain closely bunched \u2014 treat as a relatively open match.",
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "Low",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 9.87,
"hero_label": "CF Montreal",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "Draw odds lengthened \u2191 +5.1%.",
"market_agreement": "moderate",
"market_agreement_label": "Moderate",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"gap_tier": "mild",
"lead": "The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CF Montreal.",
"note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.1% (weakening support).",
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on CF Montreal.",
"However, Draw has seen drift \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.1%, suggesting weakening support.",
"Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.1% (weakening support)."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate still sits above current market pricing on CF Montreal.",
"At the same time, Draw has drifted \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.1%, suggesting weakening support."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 9.87,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_pass",
"status": "pass"
},
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"No outcome exceeds 50% on the 1X2 grid.",
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 8.6 pp (at 42.9%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 8.6,
"max_prob_pct": 42.9,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "medium",
"tier_label": "Medium"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "Medium",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "moderate",
"largest_gap_label": "CF Montreal",
"largest_gap_pp": 9.9,
"lead": "The model rates CF Montreal considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "moderate",
"max_gap_pp": 9.9,
"title": "Moderate Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 9.87,
"edge_pp": 9.87,
"fair_prob_pct": 42.85,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "CF Montreal",
"market_prob_pct": 32.98,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_higher",
"signal_label": "Model Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -0.81,
"edge_pp": -0.81,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.87,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.68,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "aligned",
"signal_label": "Aligned"
},
{
"difference_pp": -9.05,
"edge_pp": -9.05,
"fair_prob_pct": 34.28,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob_pct": 43.33,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "mild_value",
"status_label": "Mild Value",
"steam_note": "Drift away from Draw \u2014 odds lengthened by 5.1% (weakening support).",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": true,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Inter Miami (33.0%).",
"Draw odds have drifted longer across books (\u2191 +5.1%, 7/12) \u2014 market pricing moves against this side.",
"This creates a conflict: Model \u2192 CF Montreal, Market \u2192 Inter Miami, while Draw odds drifted longer (market fade).",
"Because signals disagree, confidence remains limited."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 34.13,
"closing_odds": 2.93,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 34.13,
"entry_odds": 2.93,
"match_phase": "live",
"match_phase_detail": "1H",
"match_phase_display": "Live \u00b7 1H",
"match_phase_label": "Live",
"model_validation_label": "Pass",
"model_validation_status": "pass",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"books_reacting": 7,
"books_reacting_detail": [
{
"bookmaker_id": 4,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +6.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 6.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 5,
"bookmaker_name": "SBO",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.9%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.9
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 8,
"bookmaker_name": "Bet365",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 7,
"bookmaker_name": "William Hill",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.7%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.7
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 36,
"bookmaker_name": "BetVictor",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 3,
"bookmaker_name": "Betfair",
"is_sharp": true,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
},
{
"bookmaker_id": 16,
"bookmaker_name": "Unibet",
"is_sharp": false,
"move_delta_display": "\u2191 +2.6%",
"odds_delta_pct": 2.6
}
],
"books_total": 12,
"breadth_display": "7/12",
"clv_label": "+0.00 pp",
"clv_status": "evaluated",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"move_context": "Largest move today",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"move_pct_abs": 5.1,
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 67h 50m",
"narrative_paragraphs": [
"Pinnacle led repricing on Draw (5.1%) \u2014 sharp book moved before wider follow-through.",
"A meaningful move led by sharper sportsbooks, with moderate market confirmation."
],
"narrative_title": "Market Narrative",
"odds_delta_pct": 5.1,
"odds_path": {
"chart_y_labels": [
"4.10",
"4.00",
"3.90"
],
"display": "4.20 \u2192 3.58 \u2192 4.10",
"move_speed_icon": "\ud83d\udc22",
"move_speed_label": "Slow drift over 67h 50m",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"points": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "4.20"
},
{
"label_key": "extreme",
"value": "3.58"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
],
"sparkline_points": [
3.9,
4.08,
4.1
],
"sparkline_polyline": "0.0,18.0 28.0,1.8 56.0,0.0",
"sparkline_trend": "up",
"sparkline_trend_label": "One-way rise",
"summary_boxes": [
{
"label_key": "open",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "low",
"value": "3.90"
},
{
"label_key": "high",
"value": "4.10"
},
{
"label_key": "current",
"value": "4.10"
}
]
},
"open_odds": 3.9,
"page_alert_line": "Broad drift across 7/12 sportsbooks on Draw",
"phase_label": "Sharp repricing",
"phase_tip": "Aggressive adjustment \u2014 often sharp-led or high consensus.",
"pick_team": "Draw",
"ref_book": "Bet365",
"seo_title_alert": "",
"sharp_leader": "Pinnacle",
"show": true,
"signal_badge_class": "confirm",
"signal_icon": "\u26a1",
"signal_impact": {
"current_odds": 4.1,
"is_drift": true,
"label": "Market Signal",
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"summary": "Broad market drift supports the same direction as the model lean.",
"team": "Draw",
"tone": "with"
},
"signal_key": "sharp_led",
"signal_label": "Sharp-led move",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_subtitle": "Moderate sharp signal",
"steam_tier": "B",
"title": "Market Move Intelligence"
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "7/12",
"current_odds": 4.1,
"move_display": "\u2191 +5.1%",
"open_odds": 3.9,
"pick_team": "Draw",
"steam_score": 40,
"steam_team_name": "Draw",
"steam_tier": "B"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 9.9,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": 0,
"away_team_display_name": "Inter Miami",
"away_team_id": 9568,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/9568.webp",
"away_team_name": "Inter Miami",
"away_team_slug": "inter-miami",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490347,
"goals_away": 0,
"goals_home": 0,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": 0,
"home_team_country": "Canada",
"home_team_display_name": "CF Montreal",
"home_team_id": 1614,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/1614.webp",
"home_team_name": "CF Montreal",
"home_team_slug": "cf-montreal",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-25 23:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "First Half",
"status_short": "1H",
"venue_city": "Montreal",
"venue_name": "Saputo Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3885,
"best_odd": 2.23,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0354,
"ev": -0.1125,
"implied_prob": 0.4333,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4333,
"draw": 0.2368,
"home": 0.3298
},
"model_prob": 0.3423,
"p_final": 0.398
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1976,
"best_odd": 4.08,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0016,
"ev": -0.0402,
"implied_prob": 0.2368,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4333,
"draw": 0.2368,
"home": 0.3298
},
"model_prob": 0.2287,
"p_final": 0.2352
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3831,
"best_odd": 2.93,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.038,
"ev": 0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.3298,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.4333,
"draw": 0.2368,
"home": 0.3298
},
"model_prob": 0.429,
"p_final": 0.3678
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.23,
"edge": -0.1061,
"ev": -0.2367,
"implied_prob": 0.4484,
"model_prob": 0.3423
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.08,
"edge": -0.0164,
"ev": -0.0668,
"implied_prob": 0.2451,
"model_prob": 0.2287
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.93,
"edge": 0.0877,
"ev": 0.2569,
"implied_prob": 0.3413,
"model_prob": 0.429
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.9,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.5.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0776,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2569,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.0776,
"confidence": 5.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_v1_legacy": 5.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 6.7,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"score": 6.7,
"score_pre_penalty": 6.7
},
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "primary",
"final_decision": {
"action": "primary",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": false,
"direction_key": "conflict",
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Agree",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": true,
"pricing_key": "moderate",
"probability_gap_pp": 9.9,
"summary": "Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CF Montreal)."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.0776,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.2569,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 6.7,
"decision_strength_v1": 5.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 6.7,
"decision_type": "PRIMARY",
"execution_confidence": 80,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Compare best available odds before sizing.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "Primary Bet",
"is_primary": true,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees CF Montreal at 42.9% vs market 33.0%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies CF Montreal as the stronger side (42.9%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Consensus EV, Decision Strength, and calibration cleared Primary gates",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 9.9,
"gates_failed": [],
"has_top_pick": true,
"headline": "Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u2713",
"label": "Primary Bet \u2014 Market-confirmed value",
"market_signal": "Market aligns with model lean",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "CF Montreal",
"no_primary_reasons": null,
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side CF Montreal \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.93 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +26% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490347 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.93 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +7.8% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": true,
"primary_block_explain": null,
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +7.8% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 {str_ok} (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration See checklist \u2705 \u2192 Primary eligible. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +7.8% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 6.7/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: See checklist \u2192 Primary eligible",
"primary_gates": {
"items": [
{
"key": "extreme_gap",
"label": "Extreme gap",
"ok": true,
"value": "no"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "xG calibration",
"ok": true,
"value": "warning"
},
{
"key": "reliability",
"label": "Rel",
"ok": true,
"value": "77 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "execution",
"label": "Exec",
"ok": true,
"value": "80 (\u226565)"
},
{
"key": "alignment",
"label": "Align",
"ok": true,
"value": "agree"
},
{
"key": "consensus_ev",
"label": "ConsEV",
"ok": true,
"value": "+7.8% (\u2265+5.0%)"
},
{
"key": "top_pick",
"label": "Pick",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
},
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation",
"ok": true,
"value": "true"
}
],
"passed": 8,
"total": 8
},
"primary_type": "market_confirmed",
"reasons": [
"Model and market currently agree on the stronger side (CF Montreal).",
"Decision strength: 6.7/10",
"Outlier price +26% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 77,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Reliability supports action",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV"
],
"subline": "Market-confirmed consensus value \u2014 steam supports the model lean. Size carefully.",
"thresholds": {
"extreme_gap_pp": 30.0,
"lean_min_consensus_ev": 0.02,
"lean_min_strength": 5.0,
"min_consensus_ev": 0.05,
"min_execution": 65,
"min_reliability": 65,
"min_strength": 7.0,
"source": "db",
"user_id": 2
},
"thresholds_source": "db",
"thresholds_user_id": 2,
"tier": "actionable",
"validation_ok": true,
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0776,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.429,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.257,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.7%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": false,
"calibration_status": "warning",
"deviation_pct": 52.6,
"reasons": [
"Elevated xG deviation 53%"
],
"recommended_action": "monitor",
"strength_delta": -1.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5927\u5f00\u5927\u5408\uff08\u8fdb\u7403\u578b\uff09",
"scoring_type": "high_scoring",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.744,
"draw_prob": 0.2287,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.429,
"over_prob": 0.747,
"total_xg": 3.9,
"under_prob": 0.253,
"xg_diff": 0.22
},
"type": "high_scoring",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.038,
"ev": 0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.3298,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.429,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "CF Montreal"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.744,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.747,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1490347,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0776,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3423,
"draw": 0.2287,
"home": 0.429
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": true,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Inter Miami",
"home": "CF Montreal"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.026632,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0776,
"implied_prob": 0.3298,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.429,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "CF Montreal",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.0776,
"consensus_ev_display": "+7.8%",
"consensus_odds": 2.93,
"disagreement_label": "Moderate",
"disagreement_level": "moderate",
"implied_prob": 0.3298,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.429,
"raw_edge_display": "+9.9 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 9.9,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.341296928327645,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.257,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+25.7%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490347,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-25T23:46:24.750066+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Major League Soccer — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 49 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 44 |
| 3 | St. Louis City | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 41 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 36 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 33 |
| 9 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 32 |
| 10 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 |
| 11 | San Diego | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 31 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 29 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 29 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 18 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 56 | 23 | +33 | 49 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 26 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 44 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 47 | 48 | -1 | 32 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 46 | 38 | +8 | 42 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 26 | 45 | 36 | +9 | 44 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 44 | 44 | 0 | 31 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 43 | 29 | +14 | 41 |
| 8 | Minnesota United FC | 26 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 29 |
| 9 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 37 | 44 | -7 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 36 |
| 11 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 44 |
| 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 33 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 26 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 32 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 29 | 63 | -34 | 18 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 25 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 49 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 26 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 44 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 26 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 36 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 26 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United FC | 26 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 26 | 14.7 | 12.0 | +2.7 | 31 |
| 7 | San Jose Earthquakes | 26 | 13.6 | 13.1 | +0.5 | 42 |
| 8 | Houston Dynamo | 26 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 27 | 14.5 | 15.8 | -1.3 | 41 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 26 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 44 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 26 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 30 |
| 12 | Seattle Sounders | 25 | 10.6 | 15.4 | -4.8 | 32 |
| 13 | Real Salt Lake | 26 | 14.2 | 19.2 | -5.0 | 29 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 25 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 18 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 27 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 33 |
