AI correctly predicted the Inter Miami win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
A
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Inter Miami Inter Miami ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 3-1, 2-2, 3-2, 1-1 3-2 ✔ Betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami | 59.3% | 39.7% | +19.6 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 18.4% | 23.9% | -5.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Chicago Fire | 22.3% | 36.4% | -14.1 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Inter Miami's win probability at 59.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 39.7%, a difference of 19.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, lean arah model sepadan dengan keputusan (Inter Miami win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Inter Miami.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 4.64) — 5 goals materialised
- Inter Miami attacking xG significantly stronger (2.85 vs 1.79)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Inter Miami more conservatively (39.7% vs model 59.3%, 19.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Inter Miami win 3–2).
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Inter Miami 59.2% · Draw 18.4% · Chicago Fire 22.3%
- xG · Inter Miami 2.85 — Chicago Fire 1.79
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 22:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Inter Miami 2.44 · Draw 4.04 · Chicago Fire 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · Inter Miami 39.7% · Draw 23.9% · Chicago Fire 36.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 23:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Inter Miami 2.44 · Draw 4.04 · Chicago Fire 2.66
- Implied 1X2 · Inter Miami 39.7% · Draw 23.9% · Chicago Fire 36.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 22, 2026 · 23:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Inter Miami win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Validated
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
41/100
· Low
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- High xG deviation from league baseline (111%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
2/100
Betting Confidence
32/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
2.44
AI Fair Odds
1.69
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Inter Miami win · Inter Miami 3–2 Chicago Fire
Prediction
✔ Correct
Decision Grade
A
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 59.2%
- Historical Bucket: 55–60% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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{
"key": "1X",
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{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 81.6
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{
"key": "X2",
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],
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"match_winner": {
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},
"over_under": {
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"avg_total": 4.64,
"away_avg_scored": 1.9,
"confidence": "high",
"home_avg_scored": 2.6,
"over_prob": 84.2,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 84.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
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"total_expected": 4.64,
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},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 44.7,
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"model_prob": 59.3,
"odds": 2.44
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},
"closing_line_bundle": {
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"closing_1x2_probs_pct": {
"away": 36.38,
"draw": 23.95,
"home": 39.66
},
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_fetched_at": "2026-07-22 23:29:02",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"early_fetched_at": "2026-07-22 22:59:25",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Inter Miami",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
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"closing_implied_pct": 39.66,
"gap_pp": 19.56,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 23.95,
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"model_pct": 18.43
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 36.38,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 70.56,
"gap_pp": 13.64,
"kind": "ou_o",
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{
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{
"closing": 4.04,
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{
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{
"closing": 3.26,
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"top_value_gap": {
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}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 7.0
}
},
"home_xg": 2.85,
"homepage_pick": {
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"best_odds": 2.45,
"confidence": "moderate",
"display_label": "Home Inter Miami",
"edge": 18.4,
"ev": 45.0,
"probability": 59.2
},
"market_cards": [
{
"authority_action": "no_bet",
"authority_note": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "value_bet",
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"ev": 0.1195,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
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"raw_pct": 11.9,
"text": "+11.9%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"max_ev": 0.1195,
"max_ev_display": {
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"text": "+11.9%"
},
"model_prob": 0.5923,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%",
"show_primary_label": false,
"side_label": "Inter Miami",
"sort_key": 10257.55,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
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"ev_over_display": null,
"ev_under": null,
"ev_under_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": null,
"over_prob": 84.2,
"sort_key": 4050.0,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 15.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"decision": "lean",
"ev_available": false,
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"ev_no_display": null,
"ev_yes": null,
"ev_yes_display": null,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": null,
"no_prob": 20.9,
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"tier": "lean",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 79.1
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 801.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 7.0
}
],
"market_intelligence": {
"betting_signal": {
"alert_breadth": "",
"alert_breadth_note": "",
"alert_move": "",
"alert_team": "",
"alert_title": "Sharp Money Alert",
"divergence_pp": 19.6,
"has_alert": false,
"hero_edge_pp": 19.6,
"hero_label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"market_team": "Inter Miami",
"model_prob_pct": 59.3,
"model_team": "Inter Miami",
"show": true,
"status_icon": "!",
"status_key": "caution",
"status_label": "Use caution",
"status_line": "Use caution \u2014 signals are mixed",
"steam_score": null,
"steam_subtitle": "",
"steam_tier": "",
"title": "Betting Signal"
},
"decision_chain": {
"academy_links": [
{
"key": "market_disagree",
"read_min": 5,
"title": "When Should You Trust AI Over the Market?",
"url": "/academy/ai-betting/when-should-you-trust-ai-over-the-market/en"
},
{
"key": "steam",
"read_min": 4,
"title": "What Is a Steam Move?",
"url": "/academy/betting-market/what-is-a-steam-move/en"
},
{
"key": "clv_pending",
"read_min": 3,
"title": "Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate",
"url": "/academy/clv/why-clv-matters-more-than-win-rate/en"
}
],
"alignment": {
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"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Miami), but pricing still diverges by 19.6 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Miami), but pricing still diverges by 19.6 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1195,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4451,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Inter Miami at 59.2% vs market 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Inter Miami as the stronger side (59.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter Miami",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Inter Miami \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490331 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Inter Miami), but pricing still diverges by 19.6 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 111% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"tier": "observe",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1195,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5923,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 111.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 111% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"bet_status": "no_bet",
"books_breadth_display": "12/12",
"breadth_ratio": 1.0,
"evidence": {
"score": 80,
"signals": [
{
"icon": "\u2713",
"key": "statistical_edge",
"label": "Strong model lean",
"status": "pass"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "market_agreement",
"label": "Direction agrees; pricing still diverges",
"status": "caution"
},
{
"icon": "\u25cb",
"key": "steam",
"label": "Sharp steam detected",
"status": "neutral"
},
{
"icon": "!",
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation warning",
"status": "caution"
}
],
"stars": 4,
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_reliability": {
"breakdown": [
{
"key": "validation",
"label": "Validation: Warning",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "gap",
"label": "Large market gap (20 pp)",
"tone": "caution"
},
{
"key": "xg_calibration",
"label": "High xG deviation from league baseline (111%+)",
"tone": "negative"
}
],
"parts": {
"alignment": 15.2,
"data_quality": 12.0,
"market_coverage": 10.0,
"steam_coherence": 5.0,
"validation": 14.0
},
"score": 49,
"stars": 2,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"lean_gap_pp": 19.6,
"market_agreement": "weak",
"max_gap_pp": 19.6,
"model_calibration": {
"away_xg": 1.79,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 111.0,
"elevated": true,
"home_xg": 2.85,
"impact_note": "Extreme xG mainly inflates totals (O/U / BTTS) and can overstate 1X2 favourite edges. Primary is blocked on all markets; 1X2 Best +EV lean is still discretionary only \u2014 treat that EV as possibly inflated and size down sharply (e.g. \u226425\u201350% of a normal selective stake) or skip.",
"league_avg_xg": 1.35,
"peak_xg": 2.85,
"status_label": "High deviation from league baseline",
"summary": "Home xG 2.85 \u00b7 Away xG 1.79 \u00b7 League avg 1.35 \u00b7 Peak deviation +111%",
"title": "Model Calibration Check"
},
"move_is_drift": false,
"mv_status": "warning",
"odds_delta_pct": 0.0,
"steam_conflicts": null,
"steam_move_display": "+0.0%",
"steam_team": "Inter Miami",
"suppress_execution": false,
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"verdict": {
"agree_note": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Miami), but pricing still diverges by 19.6 pp."
},
"authority": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Miami), but pricing still diverges by 19.6 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1195,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4451,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Inter Miami at 59.2% vs market 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Inter Miami as the stronger side (59.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter Miami",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Inter Miami \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490331 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Inter Miami), but pricing still diverges by 19.6 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 111% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"tier": "observe",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1195,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5923,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 111.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 111% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"subline": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"tier": "observe"
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter Miami 2.85 xG vs Chicago Fire 1.79 \u2192 Inter Miami 59.3%",
"Market: Inter Miami ~39.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Inter Miami +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Inter Miami, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"edge_rows": [
{
"edge_pp": 19.6,
"fair_prob": 59.26,
"label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob": 39.66,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "home"
},
{
"edge_pp": -5.52,
"fair_prob": 18.43,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob": 23.95,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "draw"
},
{
"edge_pp": -14.06,
"fair_prob": 22.32,
"label": "Chicago Fire",
"market_prob": 36.38,
"market_type": "1x2",
"outcome": "away"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 84.2,
"label": "Over 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "over"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 15.8,
"label": "Under 2.5",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "ou25",
"outcome": "under"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 79.1,
"label": "BTTS Yes",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "yes"
},
{
"edge_pp": null,
"fair_prob": 20.9,
"label": "BTTS No",
"market_prob": null,
"market_type": "btts",
"outcome": "no"
}
],
"edge_snapshot": {
"edge_label": "strong_disagreement",
"edge_pp": 19.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 59.26,
"hero_side": "home",
"hero_team_name": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob_pct": 39.66,
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"steam_team_name": "Inter Miami"
},
"fair_source": "poisson_pipeline",
"fair_vs_market": {
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"closing_footnote": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"comparison_available": true,
"comparison_disabled": false,
"comparison_summary": "The statistical model estimates Inter Miami\u0027s win probability at 59.3%, compared with the closing market\u0027s implied probability of 39.7%, a difference of 19.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model\u0027s assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.",
"degraded_note": "",
"divergence_guard": {
"divergence_level": "strong",
"edge_status": "strong_disagreement",
"max_gap_pp": 19.6,
"suppress_hero": false,
"suppress_value_language": false
},
"divergence_label": "Strong model-market divergence",
"divergence_level": "strong",
"divergence_level_label": "Strong divergence",
"divergence_note": "The fair estimate differs noticeably from current market pricing. This may reflect genuine disagreement or incomplete rating inputs.",
"divergence_tier": "strong",
"edge_label": "Strong disagreement",
"edge_label_key": "strong_disagreement",
"fair_confidence": "medium",
"fair_confidence_label": "Medium",
"fair_source_note": "Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.",
"forecast_assessment": {
"favourite_class": "Slight favourite",
"favourite_label": "Inter Miami",
"forecast_certainty_tier": "high",
"headline": "Slight edge match",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_direction": {
"label": "Supports model direction",
"positive": true
},
"market_prob_pct": 39.7,
"model_prob_gap_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"model_prob_gap_pp": 19.6,
"model_prob_pct": 59.3,
"outcome_separation_tier": "high",
"paragraphs": [],
"pricing_convergence": {
"gap_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"label": "Low convergence",
"label_key": "mi_fa_pricing_low"
},
"reliability_headline": "Limited reliability",
"reliability_icon": "!",
"reliability_score": 49,
"reliability_tier": "limited",
"summary": "Inter Miami \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+19.6 pp).",
"tier": "slight_edge",
"title": "Prediction Assessment",
"validation_label": "Warning",
"value_split": {
"execution_confidence": {
"label": "Betting Confidence",
"score": 39,
"tier": "low",
"tier_label": "Low"
},
"market_compatibility": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"model_edge_strength": {
"label": "Model Signal Strength",
"score": 59,
"tier": "moderate",
"tier_label": "Moderate"
},
"model_value": {
"label": "Pricing proximity (inverse gap)",
"note": "This score falls as the probability gap (pp) rises \u2014 it is NOT a bet green light. Direction may still agree (see Alignment above). Formula: proximity = max(0, 100 \u2212 5\u00d7pp). Example: 16 pp \u2192 20/100 (diverged).",
"score": 2,
"tier": "not_reliable",
"tier_label": "Not reliable"
},
"recommendation": {
"action": "no_bet",
"label": "No Primary Bet"
}
},
"why": {
"action_line": "Compare model lean with current best odds before sizing any bet.",
"bullets": [
"Model: Inter Miami 2.85 xG vs Chicago Fire 1.79 \u2192 Inter Miami 59.3%",
"Market: Inter Miami ~39.7% implied",
"Market Steam: Inter Miami +0.0%"
],
"one_liner": "Model leans Inter Miami, but market pricing diverges by 20 pp.",
"title": "Why?"
}
},
"forecast_certainty": {
"note": "One outcome clearly leads the model 1X2 grid.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"forecast_certainty_label": "High",
"has_market_probs": true,
"hero_edge_pp": 19.6,
"hero_label": "Inter Miami",
"hero_side": "home",
"market_activity": "No meaningful directional movement yet.",
"market_agreement": "weak",
"market_agreement_label": "Weak",
"market_interpretation": {
"bullets": [
"The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.",
"Monitor line movement before kickoff \u2014 not a betting recommendation."
],
"follow_up": "",
"gap_tier": "strong",
"lead": "The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Inter Miami.",
"note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Inter Miami.",
"paragraphs": [
"The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Inter Miami.",
"Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Inter Miami."
],
"quiet_market": false,
"title": "Market Assessment"
},
"market_narrative": {
"paragraphs": [
"The fair estimate favors Inter Miami more strongly than current market pricing.",
"Recent line movement on Inter Miami (+0.0%) aligns with the pricing gap.",
"Broad sportsbook alignment (12/12) supports the current market view on Inter Miami."
],
"title": "Current Market Narrative"
},
"market_source": "closing_1x2",
"max_gap_pp": 19.6,
"model_validation": {
"score_label_key": "mi_mv_warning",
"status": "warning"
},
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"outcome_separation": {
"breakdown": [
"Favourite exceeds second outcome by 36.9 pp (at 59.3%)."
],
"lead_gap_pp": 36.9,
"max_prob_pct": 59.3,
"note": "How spread out the model 1X2 probabilities are \u2014 crowded splits mean no single outcome dominates. Not accuracy vs the market.",
"tier": "high",
"tier_label": "High"
},
"outcome_separation_label": "High",
"overall_assessment": {
"badge_class": "strong",
"largest_gap_label": "Inter Miami",
"largest_gap_pp": 19.6,
"lead": "The model rates Inter Miami considerably stronger than the closing betting market.",
"level": "strong",
"max_gap_pp": 19.6,
"title": "Strong Disagreement"
},
"rows": [
{
"difference_pp": 19.6,
"edge_pp": 19.6,
"fair_prob_pct": 59.26,
"is_hero": true,
"label": "Inter Miami",
"market_prob_pct": 39.66,
"side": "home",
"signal_key": "model_edge",
"signal_label": "Model Edge"
},
{
"difference_pp": -5.52,
"edge_pp": -5.52,
"fair_prob_pct": 18.43,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Draw",
"market_prob_pct": 23.95,
"side": "draw",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
},
{
"difference_pp": -14.06,
"edge_pp": -14.06,
"fair_prob_pct": 22.32,
"is_hero": false,
"label": "Chicago Fire",
"market_prob_pct": 36.38,
"side": "away",
"signal_key": "market_higher",
"signal_label": "Market Higher"
}
],
"status": "strong_disagreement",
"status_label": "Strong Disagreement",
"steam_note": "Market activity aligns with the largest pricing gap on Inter Miami.",
"unavailable_note": ""
},
"interpretation": {
"has_conflict": false,
"paragraphs": [
"The betting market strongly prefers Inter Miami (39.7%).",
"Inter Miami \u2014 market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (+19.6 pp)."
],
"show": true,
"title": "OddsGPT Interpretation"
},
"lifecycle": {
"closing_implied_pct": 40.98,
"closing_odds": 2.44,
"closing_reason": "",
"closing_status": "recorded",
"closing_status_label": "Recorded",
"clv_pending": true,
"clv_pp": 0.0,
"clv_reason": "",
"clv_status": "pending",
"context": "match",
"current_stage": "waiting_for_kickoff",
"current_stage_detail": "",
"current_stage_label": "Waiting for kickoff",
"entry_implied_pct": 40.98,
"entry_odds": 2.44,
"match_phase": "upcoming",
"match_phase_detail": "",
"match_phase_display": "Upcoming",
"match_phase_label": "Upcoming",
"model_validation_label": "Warning",
"model_validation_status": "warning",
"stages": [
{
"detail": "",
"id": "forecast_generated",
"label": "Prediction Generated",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "market_detected",
"label": "Market Compared",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "model_validated",
"label": "Validation Passed",
"status": "active"
},
{
"detail": "PRE1",
"id": "closing_recorded",
"label": "Closing Recorded",
"status": "done"
},
{
"detail": "",
"id": "clv_evaluated",
"label": "CLV Evaluated",
"status": "pending"
}
]
},
"market_move_intelligence": {
"show": false
},
"market_overview": {
"breadth_display": "12/12",
"current_odds": 2.38,
"move_display": "+0.0%",
"open_odds": 2.38,
"pick_team": "Inter Miami",
"steam_score": 30,
"steam_team_name": "Inter Miami",
"steam_tier": "C"
},
"premium_teaser": {
"current_divergence_pp": 19.6,
"divergence_label": "Current divergence",
"title": "Premium Market Intelligence",
"unlock_items": [
"Historical similar matches",
"Closing odds analysis",
"CLV tracking",
"Sharp money signals",
"Market efficiency rating",
"Historical model vs market results"
],
"unlock_label": "Unlock"
},
"show": true
},
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_goal_display": null,
"away_team_display_name": "Chicago Fire",
"away_team_id": 1607,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1607.webp",
"away_team_name": "Chicago Fire",
"away_team_slug": "chicago-fire",
"country_code": "US",
"country_display_name": "USA",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/us.svg",
"country_id": 163,
"country_name": "USA",
"fixture_id": 1490331,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_goal_display": null,
"home_team_country": "USA",
"home_team_display_name": "Inter Miami",
"home_team_id": 9568,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/9568.webp",
"home_team_name": "Inter Miami",
"home_team_slug": "inter-miami",
"league_country": "USA",
"league_country_display": "USA",
"league_display_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_id": 253,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/253.webp",
"league_name": "Major League Soccer",
"league_season": 2026,
"match_date": "2026-07-22 23:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"score_penalty_away": null,
"score_penalty_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": null,
"venue_name": "Nu Stadium"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 8.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.3552,
"best_odd": 2.66,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0499,
"ev": -0.1649,
"implied_prob": 0.3638,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3638,
"draw": 0.2395,
"home": 0.3966
},
"model_prob": 0.2234,
"p_final": 0.3139
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1834,
"best_odd": 4.04,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0101,
"ev": -0.0731,
"implied_prob": 0.2395,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3638,
"draw": 0.2395,
"home": 0.3966
},
"model_prob": 0.1843,
"p_final": 0.2294
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.318,
"best_odd": 2.44,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0622,
"ev": 0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"joint_probs": {
"away": 0.3638,
"draw": 0.2395,
"home": 0.3966
},
"model_prob": 0.5923,
"p_final": 0.4588
}
},
"1x2_outlier": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "legacy_max_odd",
"away": {
"best_odd": 2.66,
"edge": -0.1525,
"ev": -0.4057,
"implied_prob": 0.3759,
"model_prob": 0.2234
},
"draw": {
"best_odd": 4.04,
"edge": -0.0632,
"ev": -0.2553,
"implied_prob": 0.2475,
"model_prob": 0.1843
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"best_odd": 2.44,
"edge": 0.1824,
"ev": 0.4451,
"implied_prob": 0.4098,
"model_prob": 0.5923
}
},
"btts": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
"ev_available": false,
"n_bookmakers": 0,
"reliability": "low"
}
},
"match_regime": {
"action": "avoid",
"code": "no_edge",
"execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
"insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
"stake_mult": 0.0,
"use_split_strip": true
},
"match_tier": "no_bet",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 4.64,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-05-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.4.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1195,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4451,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1195,
"confidence": 7.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)"
],
"breakdown_v2": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 111% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_v1_legacy": 7.0,
"score_v2_pre_penalty": 7.3,
"strength_v2": true
},
"decision_strength_v2": {
"breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 111% vs league baseline"
],
"score": 5.3,
"score_pre_penalty": 7.3
},
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": true,
"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"final_action": "no_bet",
"final_decision": {
"action": "no_bet",
"alignment": {
"direction_aligned": true,
"direction_key": "agree",
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"key": "agree",
"label": "Direction agree \u00b7 Pricing diverges",
"model_strong": false,
"pricing_aligned": false,
"pricing_key": "low",
"probability_gap_pp": 19.6,
"summary": "Model and market favour the same side (Inter Miami), but pricing still diverges by 19.6 pp."
},
"alignment_key": "agree",
"best_consensus_ev": 0.1195,
"best_outlier_ev": 0.4451,
"confidence_band": "Moderate",
"decision_strength": 5.3,
"decision_strength_v1": 7.0,
"decision_strength_v2": 7.3,
"decision_type": "VALUE_ALERT",
"execution_confidence": 39,
"extreme_disagreement": false,
"final_verdict_audit": {
"action": "Monitor closing market and validate with CLV.",
"action_label": "Action",
"decision": "No Primary Bet",
"is_primary": false,
"snapshot": "The AI model sees Inter Miami at 59.2% vs market 39.7%.",
"why": [
{
"text": "AI identifies Inter Miami as the stronger side (59.2%)",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Market broadly agrees with the direction",
"tone": "ok"
},
{
"text": "Model confidence reduced by xG uncertainty",
"tone": "bad"
},
{
"text": "Market quality / price reliability is insufficient for Primary",
"tone": "bad"
}
],
"why_label": "Decision Summary"
},
"gap_pp": 19.6,
"gates_failed": [
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary"
],
"headline": "No Primary Bet",
"hero_mode": "default",
"icon": "\u25cb",
"label": "No Primary Bet",
"market_signal": "Direction aligns with model lean; pricing still diverges",
"model_conflict_detail": null,
"model_lean": "Inter Miami",
"no_primary_reasons": {
"all_triggered": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"calibration_mode": "hard",
"codes": [
"calibration_risk",
"market_quality"
],
"label": "Reason",
"other_factors": [
{
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
}
],
"other_label": "Other factors",
"primary": {
"code": "calibration_risk",
"detail": "Confidence reduced because model assumptions exceed the normal range.",
"name": "Calibration Risk",
"short": "Calibration Risk",
"tone": "danger"
},
"secondary": {
"code": "market_quality",
"detail": "Price reliability is weak (thin coverage, outlier quote, or low book agreement).",
"name": "Market Quality Risk",
"short": "Market Quality Risk",
"tone": "warn"
},
"version": "v1"
},
"outlier_detected": true,
"outlier_excluded_panel": "Excluded top quotes (audit row \u2014 never Primary): #1 \u00b7 market 1X2 \u00b7 side Inter Miami \u00b7 decimal odds ~2.44 (derived from model% \u00d7 (1+EV)) \u00b7 EV +45% \u00b7 book: not captured on live render (see odds history / admin snapshot) \u00b7 captured: \u2014 \u00b7 audit_ref: fixture=1490331 \u00b7 snapshot=live-render \u00b7 odds\u22482.44 \u00b7 reason=thin|single-book|\u0394EV\u22653.0%EV \u00b7 book=admin-only \u00b7 trigger: outlier EV \u2212 consensus EV \u2265 +3.0% EV (not probability pp) AND thin/single-book style \u00b7 consensus used +11.9% EV. Excluded quotes cannot clear Primary.",
"primary_allowed": false,
"primary_block_explain": {
"entries": [
{
"key": "positive_ev",
"label": "Consensus EV +11.9% meets Primary gate (\u2265+5.0%)",
"ok": true
},
{
"key": "gate",
"label": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"ok": false
},
{
"key": "xg_strength",
"label": "Extreme xG reduced Decision Strength (-2.0)",
"ok": false
}
],
"lean_ev_threshold_pct": 2.0,
"primary_ev_threshold_pct": 5.0,
"subtitle": "Primary needs consensus EV \u2265 +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only \u2014 not default Primary sizing).",
"title": "Why not Primary?"
},
"primary_gate_checklist": "Gate checklist: Consensus EV +11.9% \u2705 (need \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 \u274c (need \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration Failed (extreme xG) \u274c \u2192 Primary blocked. If you still act under hard block: example stake 0.10\u20130.20% bankroll (never Primary).",
"primary_gate_snapshot": "Primary Gate Snapshot: Consensus EV +11.9% (gate \u2265+5.0%) \u00b7 Decision Strength 5.3/10 (gate \u22657.0) \u00b7 Calibration: Failed (extreme xG) \u2192 Primary blocked",
"primary_type": null,
"reasons": [
"Model and market favour the same side (Inter Miami), but pricing still diverges by 19.6 pp.",
"Decision strength: 5.3/10",
"Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 model \u03bb not trusted for Primary",
"Outlier price +45% EV detected \u2014 not used for Primary (consensus only)."
],
"reliability_score": 49,
"speed_read": "Speed read: Model Signal can look moderate/strong while Decision Strength stays low after calibration \u2192 NOT Primary; at most discretionary selective (\u22640.25\u20130.5% bankroll, further cut under extreme-xG).",
"strength_v2_breakdown": [
"Base decision score (v1)",
"Market aligns with model",
"Consensus-line +EV",
"Extreme xG deviation 111% vs league baseline"
],
"subline": "Extreme xG calibration failed \u2014 selective EV suppressed; observation only.",
"tier": "observe",
"value_context": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1195,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5923,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%"
},
"version": "v2.5",
"xg_calibration": {
"block_value_alert": true,
"calibration_status": "failed",
"deviation_pct": 111.1,
"reasons": [
"Extreme xG deviation 111% vs league baseline"
],
"recommended_action": "apply stronger regression",
"strength_delta": -2.0,
"uplift_away": null,
"uplift_home": null
}
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.791,
"draw_prob": 0.1843,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.5923,
"over_prob": 0.842,
"total_xg": 4.64,
"under_prob": 0.158,
"xg_diff": 1.06
},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"hero_mode": "default",
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0622,
"ev": 0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"max_ev_side": "home",
"model_prob": 0.5923,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Inter Miami"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.791,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "lean",
"edge": null,
"ev": null,
"implied_prob": null,
"model_prob": 0.842,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1490331,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1195,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2234,
"draw": 0.1843,
"home": 0.5923
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"show_betting_primary_label": false,
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Chicago Fire",
"home": "Inter Miami"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.084936,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1195,
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.5923,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Inter Miami",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 1,
"value_context_1x2": {
"consensus_ev": 0.1195,
"consensus_ev_display": "+11.9%",
"consensus_odds": 2.44,
"disagreement_label": "Strong",
"disagreement_level": "strong",
"implied_prob": 0.3966,
"is_extreme_disagreement": false,
"model_prob": 0.5923,
"raw_edge_display": "+19.6 percentage points",
"raw_edge_pp": 19.6,
"raw_implied_prob": 0.4098360655737705,
"raw_signal_ev": 0.4452,
"raw_signal_ev_display": "+44.5%"
}
}
},
"fixture_id": 1490331,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-07-22T23:29:06.680856+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
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Langgan Sekarang
Major League Soccer — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 46 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 43 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 43 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 41 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 41 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 40 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 35 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 32 |
| 9 | San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 30 |
| 10 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 |
| 12 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 29 |
| 13 | Austin FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 29 |
| 14 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 28 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 18 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 53 | 23 | +30 | 46 |
| 2 | FC Dallas | 25 | 49 | 42 | +7 | 43 |
| 3 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 32 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 44 | 36 | +8 | 41 |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 42 | 35 | +7 | 41 |
| 6 | San Diego | 25 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 30 |
| 7 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 41 | 27 | +14 | 40 |
| 8 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 29 |
| 9 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 29 |
| 10 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 33 | 32 | +1 | 35 |
| 11 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 32 | 28 | +4 | 43 |
| 12 | Austin FC | 25 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 30 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 |
| 15 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 15.4 | 7.0 | +8.4 | 46 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 25 | 16.2 | 8.0 | +8.2 | 41 |
| 3 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 12.7 | 7.5 | +5.2 | 35 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 19.0 | 14.2 | +4.8 | 32 |
| 5 | Minnesota United FC | 25 | 17.8 | 13.3 | +4.5 | 29 |
| 6 | San Diego | 25 | 12.9 | 10.5 | +2.4 | 30 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 11.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | 43 |
| 8 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12.8 | 13.1 | -0.3 | 41 |
| 9 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 14.5 | 14.9 | -0.4 | 40 |
| 10 | FC Dallas | 25 | 10.4 | 11.7 | -1.3 | 43 |
| 11 | Austin FC | 25 | 9.5 | 13.7 | -4.2 | 29 |
| 12 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 13.8 | 18.3 | -4.5 | 29 |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 9.7 | 14.9 | -5.2 | 28 |
| 14 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 9.8 | 18.2 | -8.4 | 18 |
| 15 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 26 | 11.2 | 21.1 | -9.9 | 30 |
