The model missed the final outcome (Şimal win 2–3).
The model had projected Cəbrayıl at 41.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Cəbrayıl Şimal ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-0 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.70) — 5 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Cəbrayıl; match finished Şimal
Market lesson
The full-time result was Şimal win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
May 20, 2026 · 18:20 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Cəbrayıl 1.45 — Şimal 1.25
-
May 21, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Şimal win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Şimal win · Cəbrayıl 2–3 Şimal
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
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"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
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"away_win_prob": null,
"btts_no_prob": 0.438,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.562,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.45,
"home_win_prob": null,
"over_25_prob": 0.506,
"prediction_confidence": "none",
"under_25_prob": 0.494
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Winner : C\u0259bray\u0131l",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "10%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
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"winner_name": "C\u0259bray\u0131l"
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"away_xg": 1.25,
"betting_insight": {
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"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.0989,
"edge_gap": 0.092,
"market": "1X2",
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"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
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},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 15,
"away_played": 26,
"away_score_rate": 42.3,
"home_clean_sheet": 5,
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"home_played": 26,
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"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 70.7,
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"strong_pick": true,
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},
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"home_expected": 1.9,
"scores": [
{
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{
"away": 1,
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"label": "2-1",
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{
"away": 0,
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},
{
"away": 2,
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"label": "1-2",
"prob": 6.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 6.7
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "C\u0259bray\u0131l or Draw",
"prob": 90.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "C\u0259bray\u0131l or \u015eimal",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or \u015eimal",
"prob": 55.0
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "C\u0259bray\u0131l or Draw",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
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"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "C\u0259bray\u0131l"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.3,
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"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.5,
"over_prob": 64.1,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 64.1,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 3.3,
"under_prob": 35.9
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "\u015eimal",
"closing_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Bet365",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "C\u0259bray\u0131l",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
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"model_pct": 41.77
},
{
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"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 25.67
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.82,
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"model_pct": 32.57
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 55.26,
"gap_pp": 8.84,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 64.1
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 44.74,
"gap_pp": -8.84,
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],
"movement": [
{
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"early": 1.73,
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{
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{
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{
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
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"kind": "ou_u"
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],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
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},
"correct_score_insight": {
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"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
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},
"home_xg": 1.45,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
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"tier": "best",
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{
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{
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{
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}
],
"match": {
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"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/25273.webp",
"away_team_name": "\u015eimal",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/az.svg",
"country_name": "Azerbaijan",
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"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 22789,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/22789.webp",
"home_team_name": "C\u0259bray\u0131l",
"league_country": "Azerbaijan",
"league_id": 418,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/418.webp",
"league_name": "Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-20 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_few_books_btts"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Few bookmakers for BTTS odds (edge less reliable) (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
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"best_odd": 3.6,
"calibration": {
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},
"edge": 0.0205,
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},
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},
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},
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},
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}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.57,
"edge_no": 0.296,
"edge_yes": -0.296,
"ev_available": true,
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"implied_yes": 0.589,
"n_bookmakers": 1,
"reliability": "low"
},
"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 2.2,
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"edge_under": -0.0778,
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"implied_under": 0.4368,
"n_bookmakers": 4,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.5908,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u672a\u5206\u578b",
"scoring_type": "neutral",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.293,
"draw_prob": 0.2567,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4177,
"over_prob": 0.641,
"total_xg": 2.7,
"under_prob": 0.359,
"xg_diff": 0.2
},
"type": "neutral",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0505,
"ev": -0.1938,
"implied_prob": 0.5166,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4177,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "C\u0259bray\u0131l"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.296,
"ev": 0.5908,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"model_prob": 0.707,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0778,
"ev": 0.0897,
"implied_prob": 0.5632,
"model_prob": 0.641,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1466979,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.5908,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3257,
"draw": 0.2567,
"home": 0.4177
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "\u015eimal",
"home": "C\u0259bray\u0131l"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.317449,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.5908,
"implied_prob": 0.411,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.707,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1466979,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-20T18:20:38.403466+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Birinci Dasta Azerbaijan — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 26 | 16 | 9 | 1 | 57 |
| 2 | Səbail | 26 | 14 | 8 | 4 | 50 |
| 3 | Energetik | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 48 |
| 4 | Baku Sportinq | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 48 |
| 5 | Şahdağ | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 6 | MOIK | 27 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 33 |
| 7 | Zaqatala | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 25 |
| 8 | Cəbrayıl | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 24 |
| 9 | Şimal | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 20 |
| 10 | Difai Ağsu | 27 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Safa Baku | 26 | 51 | 19 | +32 | 57 |
| 2 | Energetik | 26 | 51 | 26 | +25 | 48 |
| 3 | Səbail | 26 | 45 | 17 | +28 | 50 |
| 4 | Cəbrayıl | 27 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 24 |
| 5 | Baku Sportinq | 26 | 39 | 22 | +17 | 48 |
| 6 | Şahdağ | 26 | 35 | 26 | +9 | 42 |
| 7 | MOIK | 27 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 33 |
| 8 | Difai Ağsu | 27 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 18 |
| 9 | Zaqatala | 26 | 25 | 43 | -18 | 25 |
| 10 | Şimal | 27 | 23 | 61 | -38 | 20 |
