Al Okhdood vs Al Khaleej Saihat Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

{
  "bundle_version": 1,
  "content_hash": "0258188a47c4b2008738964f4b5d5e75aecf3a4f658a3ee2cb1b4e029d62e020",
  "decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
  "facts": {
    "ai_fp": {
      "away_predicted_xg": 1.99,
      "away_win_prob": 0.5834,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.2394,
      "fair_odds_away": 1.71,
      "fair_odds_draw": 4.18,
      "fair_odds_home": 5.64,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.03,
      "home_win_prob": 0.1772,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
      "advice": "Double chance : draw or Al Khaleej Saihat",
      "main_pick_display": "Winner : Al Khaleej Saihat",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
    },
    "away_xg": 1.99,
    "betting_insight": {
      "bet_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
      "confidence": 58.4,
      "main_pick_meta": {
        "confidence": "low",
        "display_text": "Winner : Al Khaleej Saihat",
        "edge": 0.0272,
        "edge_gap": 0.3451,
        "market": "1X2",
        "market_prob": 0.5569,
        "model_prob": 0.584,
        "pick_type": "winner",
        "probabilities": {
          "away": 58.4,
          "draw": 23.9,
          "home": 17.7
        },
        "reason": "",
        "selection": "away",
        "selection_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
      },
      "market_comparison": [
        {
          "affi_link": "",
          "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
          "odd": 1.7
        }
      ],
      "risk_color": "#f44336",
      "risk_key": "high_risk",
      "stacked_market": null,
      "value_bet": {
        "best_odds": 1.7,
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "display_market": "Al Khaleej Saihat Win",
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market_fair_odds": 1.8,
        "market_odds": 1.7,
        "model_odds": 1.71,
        "overround": 5.6,
        "prob_edge": -0.3,
        "value_pct": -0.6,
        "value_rating": "no_value"
      }
    },
    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
        "away_clean_sheet": 4,
        "away_failed_to_score": 9,
        "away_played": 32,
        "away_score_rate": 86.3,
        "home_clean_sheet": 4,
        "home_failed_to_score": 15,
        "home_played": 32,
        "home_score_rate": 64.3,
        "no_prob": 43.2,
        "pick": "No",
        "pick_prob": 56.8,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": true,
        "yes_prob": 56.8
      },
      "correct_score": {
        "away_expected": 1.99,
        "home_expected": 1.03,
        "scores": [
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-1",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-2",
            "prob": 10.0
          },
          {
            "away": 1,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-1",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 2,
            "home": 0,
            "label": "0-2",
            "prob": 9.7
          },
          {
            "away": 3,
            "home": 1,
            "label": "1-3",
            "prob": 6.6
          }
        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
        "options": [
          {
            "key": "1X",
            "label": "Al Okhdood or Draw",
            "prob": 41.6
          },
          {
            "key": "12",
            "label": "Al Okhdood or Al Khaleej Saihat",
            "prob": 76.0
          },
          {
            "key": "X2",
            "label": "Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat",
            "prob": 82.2
          }
        ],
        "pick_key": "X2",
        "pick_label": "Draw or Al Khaleej Saihat",
        "pick_prob": 82.2
      },
      "match_winner": {
        "away_pct": 58.3,
        "draw_pct": 23.9,
        "home_pct": 17.7,
        "lean_key": "away",
        "lean_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
      },
      "over_under": {
        "api_hint": null,
        "avg_total": 3.02,
        "away_avg_scored": 1.6,
        "confidence": "medium",
        "home_avg_scored": 0.8,
        "over_prob": 58.1,
        "pick": "Over 2.5",
        "pick_prob": 58.1,
        "source": "xG_dc",
        "strong_pick": false,
        "total_expected": 3.02,
        "under_prob": 41.9
      },
      "prob_source": "poisson",
      "value_bet_enhanced": {
        "bookmaker_id": 0,
        "bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
        "edge": -0.6,
        "implied_prob": 58.8,
        "is_value": false,
        "label": "Away",
        "market": "Al Khaleej Saihat Win",
        "model_prob": 58.5,
        "odds": 1.7
      }
    },
    "closing_line_bundle": {
      "away_team": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
      "closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "closing_capture": "PRE1",
      "early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
      "early_capture": "PRE30",
      "has_data": true,
      "home_team": "Al Okhdood",
      "largest_move_kind": "ou_o",
      "max_abs_move_pp": 1.58,
      "model_vs_closing": [
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 21.61,
          "gap_pp": -3.91,
          "kind": "1x2_h",
          "model_pct": 17.71
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 22.7,
          "gap_pp": 1.19,
          "kind": "1x2_d",
          "model_pct": 23.89
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 55.69,
          "gap_pp": 2.72,
          "kind": "1x2_a",
          "model_pct": 58.4
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 58.02,
          "gap_pp": 0.08,
          "kind": "ou_o",
          "model_pct": 58.1
        },
        {
          "closing_implied_pct": 41.98,
          "gap_pp": -0.08,
          "kind": "ou_u",
          "model_pct": 41.9
        }
      ],
      "movement": [
        {
          "closing": 4.38,
          "early": 4.38,
          "implied_closing_pct": 21.61,
          "implied_delta_pp": -0.01,
          "implied_early_pct": 21.62,
          "kind": "1x2_h"
        },
        {
          "closing": 4.17,
          "early": 4.24,
          "implied_closing_pct": 22.7,
          "implied_delta_pp": 0.36,
          "implied_early_pct": 22.34,
          "kind": "1x2_d"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.7,
          "early": 1.69,
          "implied_closing_pct": 55.69,
          "implied_delta_pp": -0.35,
          "implied_early_pct": 56.04,
          "kind": "1x2_a"
        },
        {
          "closing": 1.65,
          "early": 1.6,
          "implied_closing_pct": 58.02,
          "implied_delta_pp": -1.58,
          "implied_early_pct": 59.6,
          "kind": "ou_o"
        },
        {
          "closing": 2.28,
          "early": 2.36,
          "implied_closing_pct": 41.98,
          "implied_delta_pp": 1.58,
          "implied_early_pct": 40.4,
          "kind": "ou_u"
        }
      ],
      "movement_negligible": false,
      "same_bookmaker": true,
      "top_value_gap": {
        "gap_pp": 2.7,
        "kind": "1x2_a"
      }
    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
      "best_value": null,
      "most_likely": {
        "label": "1-1",
        "prob": 10.0
      }
    },
    "home_xg": 1.03,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
      {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_no": 0.0282,
        "ev_yes": -0.0628,
        "featured": true,
        "id": "btts",
        "max_ev": 0.0282,
        "no_prob": 43.2,
        "sort_key": 5222.56,
        "tier": "lean",
        "value_side": "no",
        "yes_prob": 56.8
      },
      {
        "decision": "lean",
        "ev_available": true,
        "ev_over": -0.0414,
        "ev_under": -0.0112,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "ou_2_5",
        "max_ev": -0.0112,
        "over_prob": 58.1,
        "sort_key": 1797.2,
        "tier": "bad_ev",
        "under_prob": 41.9,
        "value_side": "under"
      },
      {
        "decision": "no_bet",
        "ev": -0.0268,
        "ev_available": true,
        "featured": false,
        "id": "1x2",
        "implied_prob": 0.5569,
        "max_ev": -0.0268,
        "model_prob": 0.584,
        "side_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
        "sort_key": 1793.3,
        "tier": "bad_ev"
      },
      {
        "featured": false,
        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 810.0,
        "tier": "risk",
        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 10.0
      }
    ],
    "match": {
      "away_expected_goals": null,
      "away_team_id": 2928,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2928.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
      "country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "fixture_id": 1436203,
      "goals_away": null,
      "goals_home": null,
      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 2977,
      "home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2977.webp",
      "home_team_name": "Al Okhdood",
      "league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
      "league_id": 307,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
      "league_name": "Pro League",
      "league_season": 2025,
      "match_date": "2026-05-16 16:05:00",
      "score_fulltime_away": null,
      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
    },
    "match_decision": {
      "confidence": {
        "breakdown": [
          "pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
        ],
        "breakdown_resolved": [
          "At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
        ],
        "score": 8.0
      },
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
          "away": {
            "alpha": 0.5756,
            "best_odd": 1.7,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0156,
            "ev": -0.0268,
            "implied_prob": 0.5569,
            "model_prob": 0.584,
            "p_final": 0.5725
          },
          "draw": {
            "alpha": 0.1964,
            "best_odd": 4.17,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": 0.0023,
            "ev": -0.0436,
            "implied_prob": 0.227,
            "model_prob": 0.2389,
            "p_final": 0.2294
          },
          "ev_available": true,
          "home": {
            "alpha": 0.1883,
            "best_odd": 4.38,
            "calibration": {
              "active": false,
              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
            "edge": -0.0074,
            "ev": -0.0856,
            "implied_prob": 0.2161,
            "model_prob": 0.1771,
            "p_final": 0.2088
          }
        },
        "btts": {
          "best_no_odd": 2.38,
          "best_yes_odd": 1.65,
          "edge_no": 0.0172,
          "edge_yes": -0.0172,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_no": 0.0282,
          "ev_yes": -0.0628,
          "implied_no": 0.4148,
          "implied_yes": 0.5852,
          "n_bookmakers": 8,
          "reliability": "medium"
        },
        "ou25": {
          "best_over_odd": 1.65,
          "best_under_odd": 2.36,
          "edge_over": -0.0056,
          "edge_under": 0.0056,
          "ev_available": true,
          "ev_over": -0.0414,
          "ev_under": -0.0112,
          "implied_over": 0.5866,
          "implied_under": 0.4134,
          "n_bookmakers": 9,
          "reliability": "medium"
        }
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "min_ev": 0.02,
      "total_xg": 3.02,
      "variance_flag": false
    },
    "unified_decision": {
      "actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.1.0"
      },
      "balanced_alternative": null,
      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0282,
      "confidence": 5.0,
      "decision_confidence_v1": {
        "breakdown": [],
        "breakdown_resolved": [],
        "score": 5.0
      },
      "execution": {
        "1x2_dominant": true,
        "1x2_open_contest": false,
        "grade": "C",
        "stake_factor": 0.0
      },
      "favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
        "active": false,
        "gap": null,
        "side": null
      },
      "game_type": {
        "label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
        "scoring_type": "strong_signal",
        "signals": {
          "btts_yes_prob": 0.568,
          "draw_prob": 0.2389,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.584,
          "over_prob": 0.581,
          "total_xg": 3.02,
          "under_prob": 0.419,
          "xg_diff": 0.96
        },
        "type": "strong_signal",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": {
        "decision": "small_edge",
        "ev": 0.0282,
        "hero_display_only": true,
        "implied_prob": 0.4148,
        "market": "btts",
        "model_prob": 0.432,
        "not_dominant": true,
        "risk_band": "medium",
        "risk_tier": "hero_display",
        "side": "no",
        "slot": "hero_display"
      },
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
        "1x2": {
          "decision": "no_bet",
          "edge": 0.0156,
          "ev": -0.0268,
          "implied_prob": 0.5569,
          "max_ev_side": "away",
          "model_prob": 0.584,
          "side": "away",
          "side_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0172,
          "ev": 0.0282,
          "implied_prob": 0.4148,
          "model_prob": 0.432,
          "side": "no",
          "value_side": "no"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
          "decision": "lean",
          "edge": 0.0056,
          "ev": -0.0112,
          "implied_prob": 0.4134,
          "model_prob": 0.419,
          "side": "under",
          "value_side": "under"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1436203,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": false,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": "pred_regime_exec_no_actionable",
        "insight_line_key": "pred_regime_insight_minor_inefficiency",
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0282,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": true
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.584,
        "draw": 0.2389,
        "home": 0.1771
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
        "home": "Al Okhdood"
      },
      "top_pick": null,
      "valid_markets_count": 1
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1436203,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-16T16:04:05.058479+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}