The model missed the final outcome (Al-Ettifaq win 0–5).
The model had projected Al Khaleej Saihat at 60.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
C
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Al Khaleej Saihat Al-Ettifaq ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 3-1 0-5 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.23) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Al Khaleej Saihat; match finished Al-Ettifaq
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Al-Ettifaq win 0–5, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
May 07, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Al Khaleej Saihat 2.14 — Al-Ettifaq 1.09
-
May 09, 2026 · 15:55 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al-Ettifaq win · 0–5
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
51/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (59%+)
Bukti
★★★★★
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
53/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
1.66
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Al-Ettifaq win · Al Khaleej Saihat 0–5 Al-Ettifaq
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
C
Probability Calibration
- Expected: 60.2%
- Historical Bucket: 60–65% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"content_hash": "37e4293d88d170ade54e9c7b5c2acef0c7fdb2b1ca458c1eb42e6c1ceb0c907d",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.09,
"away_win_prob": 0.1726,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.2258,
"fair_odds_away": 5.79,
"fair_odds_draw": 4.43,
"fair_odds_home": 1.66,
"home_predicted_xg": 2.14,
"home_win_prob": 0.6015,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Al-Ettifaq",
"main_pick_display": "Winner : Al Khaleej Saihat",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Al-Ettifaq"
},
"away_xg": 1.09,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"confidence": 60.2,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "high",
"display_text": "Winner : Al Khaleej Saihat",
"edge": 0.1715,
"edge_gap": 0.3764,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.4304,
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"pick_type": "winner",
"probabilities": {
"away": 17.3,
"draw": 22.6,
"home": 60.2
},
"reason": "",
"selection": "home",
"selection_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.18
}
],
"risk_color": "#ff9800",
"risk_key": "medium_risk",
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
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"bookmaker_id": 0,
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"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
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"market_odds": 2.18,
"model_odds": 1.66,
"overround": 6.6,
"prob_edge": 14.4,
"value_pct": 31.3,
"value_rating": "strong_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 9,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 66.4,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 8,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 88.2,
"no_prob": 40.2,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 59.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 59.8
},
"correct_score": {
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"home_expected": 2.14,
"scores": [
{
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"home": 2,
"label": "2-1",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 2,
"label": "2-0",
"prob": 9.1
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 8.5
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 3,
"label": "3-1",
"prob": 7.0
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
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"label": "Al Khaleej Saihat or Draw",
"prob": 82.8
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Al Khaleej Saihat or Al-Ettifaq",
"prob": 77.5
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Al-Ettifaq",
"prob": 39.9
}
],
"pick_key": "1X",
"pick_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat or Draw",
"pick_prob": 82.8
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 17.3,
"draw_pct": 22.6,
"home_pct": 60.2,
"lean_key": "home",
"lean_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 3.23,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.7,
"over_prob": 62.6,
"pick": "Over 2.5",
"pick_prob": 62.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 3.23,
"under_prob": 37.4
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 31.3,
"implied_prob": 45.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Home",
"market": "Al Khaleej Saihat Win",
"model_prob": 60.2,
"odds": 2.18
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "2-1",
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}
},
"home_xg": 2.14,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"ev": 0.0633,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
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"side_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"sort_key": 10206.97,
"tier": "best"
},
{
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"ev_no": 0.0452,
"ev_yes": -0.103,
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"id": "btts",
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"no_prob": 40.2,
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
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"ev_over": 0.0141,
"ev_under": -0.0463,
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0141,
"over_prob": 62.6,
"sort_key": 5211.28,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 37.4,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 809.7,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "2-1",
"top_prob": 9.9
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 2934,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/2934.webp",
"away_team_name": "Al-Ettifaq",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/sa.svg",
"country_name": "Saudi-Arabia",
"fixture_id": 1436196,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 2928,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/2928.webp",
"home_team_name": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"league_country": "Saudi-Arabia",
"league_id": 307,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/307.webp",
"league_name": "Liga Pro Arab Saudi",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-07 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
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"confidence": {
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"pred_conf_md_strong_fav_1x2",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
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"Strong favourite in 1X2 model (+1.5)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 9.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.2383,
"best_odd": 3.03,
"calibration": {
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},
"edge": -0.0327,
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},
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"ev": -0.097,
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},
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"home": {
"alpha": 0.3342,
"best_odd": 2.18,
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
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"model_prob": 0.6019,
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}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.5,
"edge_no": 0.0257,
"edge_yes": -0.0257,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.0452,
"ev_yes": -0.103,
"implied_no": 0.3763,
"implied_yes": 0.6237,
"n_bookmakers": 8,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.62,
"best_under_odd": 2.55,
"edge_over": 0.024,
"edge_under": -0.024,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0141,
"ev_under": -0.0463,
"implied_over": 0.602,
"implied_under": 0.398,
"n_bookmakers": 9,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 3.23,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
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"confidence": 6.5,
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"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
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"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
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"1x2_open_contest": false,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5f3a\u4fe1\u53f7\uff08\u4f4e\u65b9\u5dee\uff09",
"scoring_type": "strong_signal",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.598,
"draw_prob": 0.2255,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.6019,
"over_prob": 0.626,
"total_xg": 3.23,
"under_prob": 0.374,
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},
"type": "strong_signal",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
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"edge": 0.0573,
"ev": 0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.4304,
"max_ev_side": "home",
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"side": "home",
"side_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
},
"btts": {
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"edge": 0.0257,
"ev": 0.0452,
"implied_prob": 0.3763,
"model_prob": 0.402,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.024,
"ev": 0.0141,
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"model_prob": 0.626,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
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"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.0633,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.1726,
"draw": 0.2255,
"home": 0.6019
},
"reason_codes": [
"high_total_goals"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Al-Ettifaq",
"home": "Al Khaleej Saihat"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.04572,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.0633,
"implied_prob": 0.4304,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.6019,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Al Khaleej Saihat",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1436196,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-07T16:59:04.330790+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Pro Arab Saudi — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Nassr | 34 | 28 | 2 | 4 | 86 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 34 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 84 |
| 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 34 | 25 | 6 | 3 | 81 |
| 4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 34 | 23 | 8 | 3 | 77 |
| 5 | Al-Ittihad FC | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 55 |
| 6 | Al Taawon | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 53 |
| 7 | Al-Ettifaq | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 50 |
| 8 | NEOM | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 45 |
| 9 | Al-Hazm | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 42 |
| 10 | Al-Fayha | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 |
| 11 | Al-Fateh | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 12 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 37 |
| 13 | Al Shabab | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 14 | Al Kholood | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 |
| 15 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 30 |
| 16 | Damac | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 29 |
| 17 | Al Akhdoud | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 20 |
| 18 | Al Najma | 34 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 16 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Nassr | 34 | 91 | 28 | +63 | 86 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 34 | 85 | 27 | +58 | 84 |
| 3 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 34 | 83 | 34 | +49 | 77 |
| 4 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 34 | 71 | 25 | +46 | 81 |
| 5 | Al Taawon | 34 | 59 | 46 | +13 | 53 |
| 6 | Al-Ittihad FC | 34 | 55 | 48 | +7 | 55 |
| 7 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 34 | 54 | 62 | -8 | 37 |
| 8 | Al-Ettifaq | 34 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 50 |
| 9 | Al Shabab | 34 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 35 |
| 10 | NEOM | 34 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 45 |
| 11 | Al-Fayha | 34 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 38 |
| 12 | Al-Fateh | 34 | 41 | 55 | -14 | 37 |
| 13 | Al Kholood | 34 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 33 |
| 14 | Al-Hazm | 34 | 38 | 57 | -19 | 42 |
| 15 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 35 | 63 | -28 | 30 |
| 16 | Damac | 34 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 29 |
| 17 | Al Najma | 34 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 16 |
| 18 | Al Akhdoud | 34 | 27 | 70 | -43 | 20 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Nassr | 34 | 69.8 | 26.0 | +43.8 | 86 |
| 2 | Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 34 | 68.9 | 25.9 | +43.0 | 84 |
| 3 | Al-Ahli Jeddah | 34 | 62.4 | 26.7 | +35.7 | 81 |
| 4 | Al-Qadisiyah FC | 34 | 62.9 | 35.2 | +27.7 | 77 |
| 5 | Al-Ittihad FC | 34 | 49.5 | 41.2 | +8.3 | 55 |
| 6 | NEOM | 34 | 45.8 | 39.4 | +6.4 | 45 |
| 7 | Al Shabab | 34 | 44.1 | 44.7 | -0.6 | 35 |
| 8 | Al Taawon | 34 | 42.0 | 44.7 | -2.7 | 53 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 34 | 42.6 | 46.3 | -3.7 | 37 |
| 10 | Al-Fateh | 34 | 42.5 | 49.6 | -7.1 | 37 |
| 11 | Al Riyadh | 34 | 41.4 | 50.5 | -9.1 | 30 |
| 12 | Al-Fayha | 34 | 33.3 | 43.4 | -10.1 | 38 |
| 13 | Al-Hazm | 34 | 34.1 | 47.4 | -13.3 | 42 |
| 14 | Damac | 34 | 25.1 | 38.5 | -13.4 | 29 |
| 15 | Al-Ettifaq | 34 | 39.0 | 56.5 | -17.5 | 50 |
| 16 | Al Kholood | 34 | 33.2 | 51.5 | -18.3 | 33 |
| 17 | Al Najma | 34 | 28.1 | 61.0 | -32.9 | 16 |
| 18 | Al Akhdoud | 34 | 26.8 | 62.8 | -36.0 | 20 |
