The model missed the final outcome (Retz win 2–1).
The model had projected Favoritner AC at 40.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Favoritner AC Retz ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 0-1, 0-0, 1-1, 1-0, 0-2 2-1 ✖ tak betul
Model lwn Pasaran Penutup
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasaran | Perbezaan | isyarat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retz | 29.1% | 25.4% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 30.3% | 19.5% | +10.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Favoritner AC | 40.5% | 55.2% | -14.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Favoritner AC's win probability at 55.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.5%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Retz win 2–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Favoritner AC than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Favoritner AC by 14.6 percentage points (55.1% vs model 40.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
Jun 06, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Retz 29.2% · Draw 30.3% · Favoritner AC 40.5%
- xG · Retz 0.96 — Favoritner AC 1.02
-
Jun 06, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Retz 3.50 · Draw 4.56 · Favoritner AC 1.61
- Implied 1X2 · Retz 25.4% · Draw 19.5% · Favoritner AC 55.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 06, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Retz 3.50 · Draw 4.56 · Favoritner AC 1.61
- Implied 1X2 · Retz 25.4% · Draw 19.5% · Favoritner AC 55.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jun 06, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Retz win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah
Monitor
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
56/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap)
26/100
Betting Confidence
44/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
1.61
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Retz win · Retz 2–1 Favoritner AC
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
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"prediction_confidence": "very_low",
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"api_prediction": {
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"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
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"probabilities": {
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"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
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"market_comparison": [
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"label": "Away",
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"market_odds": 1.61,
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"overround": 12.6,
"prob_edge": -21.6,
"value_pct": -34.8,
"value_rating": "no_value"
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},
"betting_markets": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 10,
"away_played": 31,
"away_score_rate": 63.9,
"home_clean_sheet": 4,
"home_failed_to_score": 16,
"home_played": 31,
"home_score_rate": 61.7,
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"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 58.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
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},
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"home_expected": 0.96,
"scores": [
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{
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"prob": 13.8
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{
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{
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{
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"home": 0,
"label": "0-2",
"prob": 7.2
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
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"label": "Retz or Draw",
"prob": 59.4
},
{
"key": "12",
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"prob": 69.7
},
{
"key": "X2",
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}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Favoritner AC",
"pick_prob": 70.9
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"match_winner": {
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"home_pct": 29.1,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Favoritner AC"
},
"over_under": {
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"pick": "Under 2.5",
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"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
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"edge": 38.2,
"implied_prob": 21.9,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 30.3,
"odds": 4.56
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"has_data": false
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
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}
},
"home_xg": 0.96,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
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"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4594,
"ev_over_display": {
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},
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"featured": true,
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"tier": "best",
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{
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{
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},
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"id": "1x2",
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{
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"tier": "risk",
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],
"match": {
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"away_team_id": 8367,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/8367.webp",
"away_team_name": "Favoritner AC",
"country_code": "AT",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/at.svg",
"country_name": "Austria",
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"goals_home": null,
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"home_team_id": 8288,
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"home_team_name": "Retz",
"league_country": "Austria",
"league_id": 221,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/221.webp",
"league_name": "Regionalliga Ost",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-06-06 14:30:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS",
"venue_city": "Retz",
"venue_name": "Sportplatz Retz"
},
"match_decision": {
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"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
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],
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"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
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"away": {
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"best_odd": 1.61,
"calibration": {
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},
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},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.1675,
"best_odd": 4.56,
"calibration": {
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"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0182,
"ev": -0.0292,
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},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
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"edge": 0.0107,
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}
},
"btts": {
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"best_yes_odd": 1.45,
"edge_no": 0.2139,
"edge_yes": -0.2139,
"ev_available": true,
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"ev_yes": -0.4026,
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"implied_yes": 0.6259,
"n_bookmakers": 3,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
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"best_under_odd": 2.6,
"edge_over": -0.295,
"edge_under": 0.295,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.4594,
"ev_under": 0.7732,
"implied_over": 0.613,
"implied_under": 0.387,
"n_bookmakers": 7,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 1.98,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
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"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.2.0"
},
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"best_tracked_ev": 0.7732,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
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"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
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"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u6781\u7aef\u9632\u5b88\uff08\u4f4e\u8fdb\u7403\uff09",
"scoring_type": "defensive",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.412,
"draw_prob": 0.3032,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4051,
"over_prob": 0.318,
"total_xg": 1.98,
"under_prob": 0.682,
"xg_diff": 0.06
},
"type": "defensive",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0686,
"ev": -0.2224,
"implied_prob": 0.5516,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.4051,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Favoritner AC"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.2139,
"ev": 0.4818,
"implied_prob": 0.3741,
"model_prob": 0.588,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.295,
"ev": 0.7732,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"model_prob": 0.682,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1418147,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.7732,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4051,
"draw": 0.3032,
"home": 0.2917
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4818,
"implied_prob": 0.3741,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.4818,
"implied_prob": 0.3741,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.588,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Favoritner AC",
"home": "Retz"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.685519,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.7732,
"implied_prob": 0.387,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.682,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1418147,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-06-06T18:15:02.033824+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Regionalliga Ost — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Parndorf | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 62 |
| 2 | Gloggnitz | 32 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 62 |
| 3 | Krems / Rehberg | 32 | 17 | 7 | 8 | 58 |
| 4 | Leobendorf | 32 | 18 | 3 | 11 | 57 |
| 5 | Oberwart | 32 | 17 | 5 | 10 | 56 |
| 6 | SV Horn | 32 | 14 | 9 | 9 | 51 |
| 7 | Traiskirchen | 32 | 14 | 8 | 10 | 50 |
| 8 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Fach-Donaufeld | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 47 |
| 10 | Wiener SC | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 46 |
| 11 | Wiener Viktoria | 32 | 13 | 6 | 13 | 45 |
| 12 | Donau | 32 | 12 | 8 | 12 | 44 |
| 13 | Favoritner AC | 32 | 12 | 3 | 17 | 39 |
| 14 | Union Mauer | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 37 |
| 15 | Neusiedl | 32 | 8 | 5 | 19 | 29 |
| 16 | Retz | 32 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 20 |
| 17 | TWL Elektra | 32 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 8 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oberwart | 32 | 73 | 42 | +31 | 56 |
| 2 | Traiskirchen | 32 | 70 | 52 | +18 | 50 |
| 3 | Krems / Rehberg | 32 | 61 | 33 | +28 | 58 |
| 4 | Parndorf | 32 | 58 | 34 | +24 | 62 |
| 5 | Gloggnitz | 32 | 58 | 45 | +13 | 62 |
| 6 | SV Horn | 32 | 57 | 35 | +22 | 51 |
| 7 | Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf | 32 | 55 | 37 | +18 | 49 |
| 8 | Wiener SC | 32 | 54 | 52 | +2 | 46 |
| 9 | Fach-Donaufeld | 32 | 51 | 44 | +7 | 47 |
| 10 | Wiener Viktoria | 32 | 50 | 51 | -1 | 45 |
| 11 | Donau | 32 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 44 |
| 12 | Leobendorf | 32 | 48 | 34 | +14 | 57 |
| 13 | Neusiedl | 32 | 46 | 72 | -26 | 29 |
| 14 | Favoritner AC | 32 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 39 |
| 15 | Union Mauer | 32 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 37 |
| 16 | Retz | 32 | 25 | 64 | -39 | 20 |
| 17 | TWL Elektra | 32 | 21 | 102 | -81 | 8 |
