AI correctly predicted the Pacos Ferreira win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
- 1X2 Pacos Ferreira Pacos Ferreira ✔ Betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 2-1 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Pacos Ferreira win 2–1).
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
May 17, 2026 · 15:01 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Pacos Ferreira 1.25 — Penafiel 0.95
-
May 17, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Pacos Ferreira win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pending
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotSemakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "d5a8ac6565b567a09134deab9a28cf1cc9fa34ddcafeb09bc2948425f04415f8",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 0.95,
"away_win_prob": null,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": null,
"fair_odds_away": null,
"fair_odds_draw": null,
"fair_odds_home": null,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.25,
"home_win_prob": null,
"prediction_confidence": "none"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Penafiel",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Penafiel"
},
"away_xg": 0.95,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Pacos Ferreira",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": -0.1051,
"edge_gap": 0.1447,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.5368,
"model_prob": 0.4317,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 28.1,
"draw": 28.7,
"home": 43.2
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": null
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 11,
"away_played": 33,
"away_score_rate": 66.7,
"home_clean_sheet": 10,
"home_failed_to_score": 16,
"home_played": 33,
"home_score_rate": 51.5,
"no_prob": 65.7,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 65.7,
"source": "stats",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 34.3
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.25,
"home_expected": 1.05,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.5
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 10.0
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.2
}
],
"source": "avg"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Pacos Ferreira or Draw",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Pacos Ferreira or Penafiel",
"prob": 55.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Penafiel",
"prob": 90.0
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Penafiel",
"pick_prob": 90.0
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 45.0,
"draw_pct": 45.0,
"home_pct": 10.0,
"lean_key": "draw",
"lean_label": "Draw"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.3,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 1.0,
"over_prob": 40.4,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 59.6,
"source": "avg",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.3,
"under_prob": 59.6
},
"prob_source": null,
"value_bet_enhanced": null
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Penafiel",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Pacos Ferreira",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 53.68,
"gap_pp": -10.51,
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"model_pct": 43.17
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 24.72,
"gap_pp": 3.98,
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"model_pct": 28.7
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 21.6,
"gap_pp": 6.53,
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"model_pct": 28.13
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 51.98,
"gap_pp": -11.58,
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{
"closing_implied_pct": 48.02,
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],
"movement": [
{
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"early": 1.75,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.8,
"early": 3.8,
"implied_closing_pct": 24.72,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 24.72,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.35,
"early": 4.35,
"implied_closing_pct": 21.6,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 21.6,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 1.82,
"early": 1.82,
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"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.97,
"early": 1.97,
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"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 11.6,
"kind": "ou_u"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.2
}
},
"home_xg": 1.25,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3468,
"ev_yes": -0.3826,
"featured": true,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.3468,
"no_prob": 65.7,
"sort_key": 10462.12,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
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{
"decision": "value_bet",
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"id": "ou_2_5",
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"tier": "best",
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},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.1535,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
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"side_label": "Pacos Ferreira",
"sort_key": 1797.675,
"tier": "bad_ev"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
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"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
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}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 235,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/235.webp",
"away_team_name": "Penafiel",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/pt.svg",
"country_name": "Portugal",
"fixture_id": 1398272,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 234,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/234.webp",
"home_team_name": "Pacos Ferreira",
"league_country": "Portugal",
"league_id": 95,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/95.webp",
"league_name": "Segunda Liga",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-17 15:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.1804,
"best_odd": 4.35,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0118,
"ev": -0.0093,
"implied_prob": 0.216,
"model_prob": 0.2813,
"p_final": 0.2277
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2821,
"best_odd": 3.8,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0112,
"ev": -0.0179,
"implied_prob": 0.2472,
"model_prob": 0.287,
"p_final": 0.2584
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.5054,
"best_odd": 1.75,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0531,
"ev": -0.1535,
"implied_prob": 0.5368,
"model_prob": 0.4317,
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}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.05,
"best_yes_odd": 1.8,
"edge_no": 0.1856,
"edge_yes": -0.1856,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.3468,
"ev_yes": -0.3826,
"implied_no": 0.4714,
"implied_yes": 0.5286,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.88,
"best_under_odd": 2.0,
"edge_over": -0.1186,
"edge_under": 0.1186,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2405,
"ev_under": 0.192,
"implied_over": 0.5226,
"implied_under": 0.4774,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.3468,
"confidence": 6.5,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
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"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.5
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.343,
"draw_prob": 0.287,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4317,
"over_prob": 0.404,
"total_xg": 2.2,
"under_prob": 0.596,
"xg_diff": 0.3
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": -0.0531,
"ev": -0.1535,
"implied_prob": 0.5368,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4317,
"side": "home",
"side_label": "Pacos Ferreira"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1856,
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.4714,
"model_prob": 0.657,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1186,
"ev": 0.192,
"implied_prob": 0.4774,
"model_prob": 0.596,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1398272,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.3468,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.2813,
"draw": 0.287,
"home": 0.4317
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.192,
"implied_prob": 0.4774,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.596,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.192,
"implied_prob": 0.4774,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.596,
"not_dominant": false,
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Penafiel",
"home": "Pacos Ferreira"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.227848,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.3468,
"implied_prob": 0.4714,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.657,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1398272,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T15:01:25.399540+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Segunda Liga — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marítimo | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 66 |
| 2 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 59 |
| 3 | Torreense | 34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 59 |
| 4 | Vizela | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 51 |
| 5 | FC Porto B | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 51 |
| 6 | União de Leiria | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 50 |
| 7 | Leixões | 34 | 15 | 5 | 14 | 50 |
| 8 | Feirense | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 46 |
| 9 | Chaves | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 45 |
| 10 | Benfica B | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 11 | Felgueiras 1932 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 44 |
| 12 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 43 |
| 13 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 13 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 14 | Penafiel | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 41 |
| 15 | Portimonense | 34 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 40 |
| 16 | Farense | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 40 |
| 17 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 39 |
| 18 | Oliveirense | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 58 | 33 | +25 | 59 |
| 2 | União de Leiria | 34 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 50 |
| 3 | Marítimo | 34 | 50 | 29 | +21 | 66 |
| 4 | Torreense | 34 | 46 | 33 | +13 | 59 |
| 5 | Leixões | 34 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 50 |
| 6 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 34 | 44 | 52 | -8 | 43 |
| 7 | Benfica B | 34 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 44 |
| 8 | Chaves | 34 | 42 | 40 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 41 | 34 | +7 | 42 |
| 10 | FC Porto B | 34 | 41 | 42 | -1 | 51 |
| 11 | Vizela | 34 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 51 |
| 12 | Portimonense | 34 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 40 |
| 13 | Penafiel | 34 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 41 |
| 14 | Feirense | 34 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 46 |
| 15 | Felgueiras 1932 | 34 | 34 | 38 | -4 | 44 |
| 16 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 39 |
| 17 | Oliveirense | 34 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 34 |
| 18 | Farense | 34 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 40 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marítimo | 34 | 9.6 | 5.5 | +4.1 | 66 |
| 2 | Chaves | 34 | 7.5 | 4.3 | +3.2 | 45 |
| 3 | Academico Viseu | 34 | 8.5 | 6.2 | +2.3 | 59 |
| 4 | Feirense | 34 | 2.9 | 1.1 | +1.8 | 46 |
| 5 | Leixões | 34 | 7.9 | 7.1 | +0.8 | 50 |
| 6 | Portimonense | 34 | 6.2 | 5.4 | +0.8 | 40 |
| 7 | Benfica B | 34 | 4.1 | 3.5 | +0.6 | 44 |
| 8 | Felgueiras 1932 | 34 | 7.2 | 6.7 | +0.5 | 44 |
| 9 | União de Leiria | 34 | 8.6 | 8.2 | +0.4 | 50 |
| 10 | Sporting CP B | 34 | 3.6 | 3.2 | +0.4 | 42 |
| 11 | Farense | 34 | 3.8 | 4.2 | -0.4 | 40 |
| 12 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 34 | 7.6 | 8.5 | -0.9 | 43 |
| 13 | Vizela | 34 | 3.1 | 4.4 | -1.3 | 51 |
| 14 | Oliveirense | 34 | 6.8 | 8.7 | -1.9 | 34 |
| 15 | Torreense | 34 | 3.1 | 5.0 | -1.9 | 59 |
| 16 | Penafiel | 34 | 4.7 | 7.3 | -2.6 | 41 |
| 17 | FC Porto B | 34 | 4.0 | 6.7 | -2.7 | 51 |
| 18 | Pacos Ferreira | 34 | 4.0 | 7.3 | -3.3 | 39 |