The model missed the final outcome (Eyüpspor win 4–0).
The model had projected Rizespor at 38.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Gred ramalan
F
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✖ tak betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Rizespor Eyüpspor ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 4-0 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Rizespor; match finished Eyüpspor
Market lesson
The full-time result was Eyüpspor win 4–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
-
May 10, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Eyüpspor 1.11 — Rizespor 1.28
-
May 09, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Eyüpspor win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Keputusan sejarah:
Observe
Keputusan Sejarah
No Primary Bet
Hasil
Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Bukti
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Eyüpspor win · Eyüpspor 4–0 Rizespor
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "2a078331a2ddad588b843777a3182b3034d7378ccbbfca01d74e1a661f66bd87",
"decision_algo_version": "2.0.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.28,
"away_win_prob": 0.3863,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3099,
"fair_odds_away": 2.59,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.23,
"fair_odds_home": 3.29,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.11,
"home_win_prob": 0.3038,
"prediction_confidence": "high"
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Double chance : draw or Rizespor",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "45%",
"percent_draw": "45%",
"percent_home": "10%",
"winner_name": "Rizespor"
},
"away_xg": 1.28,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Rizespor",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.0214,
"edge_gap": 0.0765,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.3649,
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 38.6,
"draw": 31.0,
"home": 30.4
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 2.64
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 2.64,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Rizespor Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 2.74,
"market_odds": 2.64,
"model_odds": 2.59,
"overround": 3.8,
"prob_edge": 0.7,
"value_pct": 1.9,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
"away_clean_sheet": 8,
"away_failed_to_score": 8,
"away_played": 32,
"away_score_rate": 72.2,
"home_clean_sheet": 6,
"home_failed_to_score": 15,
"home_played": 32,
"home_score_rate": 67.0,
"no_prob": 49.9,
"pick": "No",
"pick_prob": 50.1,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 50.1
},
"correct_score": {
"away_expected": 1.28,
"home_expected": 1.11,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 11.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 10.2
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.2
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.3
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Ey\u00fcpspor or Draw",
"prob": 61.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Ey\u00fcpspor or Rizespor",
"prob": 69.0
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Rizespor",
"prob": 69.6
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Rizespor",
"pick_prob": 69.6
},
"match_winner": {
"away_pct": 38.6,
"draw_pct": 31.0,
"home_pct": 30.4,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Rizespor"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": null,
"avg_total": 2.39,
"away_avg_scored": 1.4,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.8,
"over_prob": 42.8,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 57.2,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"total_expected": 2.39,
"under_prob": 57.2
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 14.1,
"implied_prob": 27.2,
"is_value": true,
"label": "Draw",
"market": "Draw",
"model_prob": 31.0,
"odds": 3.68
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
}
},
"home_xg": 1.11,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2253,
"ev_under": 0.2069,
"featured": true,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.2069,
"over_prob": 42.8,
"sort_key": 10336.21,
"tier": "best",
"under_prob": 57.2,
"value_side": "under"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1227,
"ev_yes": -0.1734,
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.1227,
"no_prob": 49.9,
"sort_key": 10110.43,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "no",
"yes_prob": 50.1
},
{
"decision": "no_bet",
"ev": -0.0122,
"ev_available": true,
"featured": false,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.3649,
"max_ev": 0.0124,
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"side_label": "Rizespor",
"sort_key": 5209.92,
"tier": "lean"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 1007,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/1007.webp",
"away_team_name": "Rizespor",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/tr.svg",
"country_name": "Turkey",
"fixture_id": 1394724,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 3588,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/3588.webp",
"home_team_name": "Ey\u00fcpspor",
"league_country": "Turkey",
"league_id": 203,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/203.webp",
"league_name": "S\u00fcper Lig",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-10 17:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_xg_borderline",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Total xG in borderline band (high variance) (\u22121.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 4.5
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.4356,
"best_odd": 2.64,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.3649,
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"p_final": 0.3742
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2784,
"best_odd": 3.68,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0133,
"ev": 0.0124,
"implied_prob": 0.2618,
"model_prob": 0.3097,
"p_final": 0.2751
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.4032,
"best_odd": 2.58,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0279,
"ev": -0.1088,
"implied_prob": 0.3734,
"model_prob": 0.3041,
"p_final": 0.3454
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 2.25,
"best_yes_odd": 1.65,
"edge_no": 0.0739,
"edge_yes": -0.0739,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": 0.1227,
"ev_yes": -0.1734,
"implied_no": 0.4251,
"implied_yes": 0.5749,
"n_bookmakers": 10,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 1.81,
"best_under_odd": 2.11,
"edge_over": -0.1045,
"edge_under": 0.1045,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": -0.2253,
"ev_under": 0.2069,
"implied_over": 0.5325,
"implied_under": 0.4675,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.39,
"variance_flag": true
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.0.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.2069,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "A",
"stake_factor": 1.0
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.501,
"draw_prob": 0.3097,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.3862,
"over_prob": 0.428,
"total_xg": 2.39,
"under_prob": 0.572,
"xg_diff": 0.17
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "no_bet",
"edge": 0.0093,
"ev": -0.0122,
"implied_prob": 0.3649,
"max_ev_side": "draw",
"model_prob": 0.3862,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Rizespor"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0739,
"ev": 0.1227,
"implied_prob": 0.4251,
"model_prob": 0.499,
"side": "no",
"value_side": "no"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.1045,
"ev": 0.2069,
"implied_prob": 0.4675,
"model_prob": 0.572,
"side": "under",
"value_side": "under"
}
},
"match_id": 1394724,
"match_regime": {
"action": "bet",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": true,
"code": "clear_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.2069,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 1.0,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.3862,
"draw": 0.3097,
"home": 0.3041
},
"reason_codes": [
"no_ev_1x2",
"variance_medium"
],
"secondary_pick": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1227,
"implied_prob": 0.4251,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.499,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
},
"secondary_picks": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1227,
"implied_prob": 0.4251,
"market": "btts",
"model_prob": 0.499,
"not_dominant": true,
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "secondary",
"side": "no",
"slot": "secondary"
}
],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Rizespor",
"home": "Ey\u00fcpspor"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.072902,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.2069,
"implied_prob": 0.4675,
"market": "ou_2_5",
"model_prob": 0.572,
"not_dominant": false,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "strong",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "under",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1394724,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T16:59:23.778036+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
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Langgan Sekarang
Süper Lig — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 77 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 74 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 69 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 60 |
| 5 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 57 |
| 6 | Göztepe | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 51 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 41 |
| 9 | Konyaspor | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 40 |
| 10 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 37 |
| 12 | Gazişehir Gaziantep | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 37 |
| 13 | Kasimpasa | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 35 |
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 34 |
| 15 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 8 | 9 | 17 | 33 |
| 16 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 32 |
| 17 | Kayserispor | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 30 |
| 18 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 30 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 77 | 30 | +47 | 77 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 77 | 37 | +40 | 74 |
| 3 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 61 | 39 | +22 | 69 |
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 60 |
| 5 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 34 | 58 | 35 | +23 | 57 |
| 6 | Samsunspor | 34 | 46 | 45 | +1 | 51 |
| 7 | Rizespor | 34 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 41 |
| 8 | Konyaspor | 34 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 40 |
| 9 | Gazişehir Gaziantep | 34 | 43 | 58 | -15 | 37 |
| 10 | Göztepe | 34 | 42 | 32 | +10 | 55 |
| 11 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 41 | 41 | 0 | 37 |
| 12 | Gençlerbirliği | 34 | 36 | 47 | -11 | 34 |
| 13 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 33 | 48 | -15 | 33 |
| 14 | Kasimpasa | 34 | 33 | 49 | -16 | 35 |
| 15 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 33 | 55 | -22 | 32 |
| 16 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 30 |
| 17 | Kayserispor | 34 | 27 | 62 | -35 | 30 |
| 18 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 37 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 34 | 68.5 | 32.7 | +35.8 | 77 |
| 2 | Fenerbahçe | 34 | 65.0 | 30.1 | +34.9 | 74 |
| 3 | Beşiktaş | 34 | 62.6 | 36.8 | +25.8 | 60 |
| 4 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 34 | 53.5 | 42.7 | +10.8 | 57 |
| 5 | Göztepe | 34 | 46.6 | 35.8 | +10.8 | 55 |
| 6 | Trabzonspor | 34 | 50.4 | 43.9 | +6.5 | 69 |
| 7 | Samsunspor | 34 | 43.8 | 40.1 | +3.7 | 51 |
| 8 | Rizespor | 34 | 45.3 | 45.5 | -0.2 | 41 |
| 9 | Kocaelispor | 34 | 30.1 | 33.2 | -3.1 | 37 |
| 10 | Konyaspor | 34 | 44.0 | 47.4 | -3.4 | 40 |
| 11 | Gazişehir Gaziantep | 34 | 44.4 | 50.8 | -6.4 | 37 |
| 12 | Alanyaspor | 34 | 34.6 | 44.1 | -9.5 | 37 |
| 13 | Kayserispor | 34 | 37.9 | 51.7 | -13.8 | 30 |
| 14 | Kasimpasa | 34 | 30.3 | 44.5 | -14.2 | 35 |
| 15 | Fatih Karagümrük | 34 | 33.2 | 48.0 | -14.8 | 30 |
| 16 | Gençlerbirliği | 34 | 34.9 | 51.4 | -16.5 | 34 |
| 17 | Eyüpspor | 34 | 34.4 | 53.3 | -18.9 | 33 |
| 18 | Antalyaspor | 34 | 27.8 | 55.2 | -27.4 | 32 |
