Audit Ramalan: Leganes vs Racing Santander Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Leganes

May 10, 2026 - 14:15

1 1.72

2 1.69

xG Accuracy: 75%

Racing Santander

The model missed the final outcome (Racing Santander win 1–2).

The model had projected Leganes at 38.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan C

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 matlamat) ✔ Betul
Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
1X2 Leganes Racing Santander ✖ tak betul
Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 1-0 1-2 ✔ Betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Hasil	Model	Menutup Pasaran	Perbezaan	isyarat
Leganes	38.1%	32.2%	+5.8 pp	Model Higher
Draw	25.1%	25.7%	-0.6 pp	Aligned
Racing Santander	36.8%	42.0%	-5.2 pp	Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Leganes's win probability at 38.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 32.2%, a difference of 5.8 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Racing Santander win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Leganes.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.41) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Leganes; match finished Racing Santander

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Leganes by 5.8 percentage points (32.3% vs model 38.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

May 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leganes 38.1% · Draw 25.1% · Racing Santander 36.8%
- xG · Leganes 1.72 — Racing Santander 1.69
May 10, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leganes 3.00 · Draw 3.76 · Racing Santander 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Leganes 32.2% · Draw 25.7% · Racing Santander 42.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 10, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leganes 3.00 · Draw 3.76 · Racing Santander 2.30
- Implied 1X2 · Leganes 32.2% · Draw 25.7% · Racing Santander 42.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
May 10, 2026 · 14:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Racing Santander win · 1–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Monitor

Keputusan Sejarah Monitor

Hasil Missed

Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)

Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Bukti ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 24/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 05, 2026 · 17:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3063680

Closing Odds 3.0

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Racing Santander win · Leganes 1–2 Racing Santander

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?: Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?: Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?: Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?: Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

View technical JSON

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      "away_win_prob": 0.3683,
      "dc_rho": -0.13,
      "draw_prob": 0.251,
      "fair_odds_away": 2.72,
      "fair_odds_draw": 3.98,
      "fair_odds_home": 2.63,
      "home_predicted_xg": 1.72,
      "home_win_prob": 0.3807,
      "prediction_confidence": "high"
    },
    "api_prediction": {
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      "main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
      "percent_away": "45%",
      "percent_draw": "45%",
      "percent_home": "10%",
      "winner_name": "Racing Santander"
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    "away_xg": 1.69,
    "betting_insight": {
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        "market_prob": 0.3223,
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        "pick_type": "no_strong",
        "probabilities": {
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          "draw": 25.1,
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        "selection": null,
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      "market_comparison": [
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        "market_fair_odds": 3.1,
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        "prob_edge": 4.7,
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    "betting_markets": {
      "btts": {
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        "away_played": 38,
        "away_score_rate": 81.5,
        "home_clean_sheet": 11,
        "home_failed_to_score": 14,
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        "home_score_rate": 82.1,
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            "home": 2,
            "label": "2-1",
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        ],
        "source": "xG"
      },
      "double_chance": {
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        ],
        "pick_key": "12",
        "pick_label": "Leganes or Racing Santander",
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      "match_winner": {
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        "draw_pct": 25.1,
        "home_pct": 38.1,
        "lean_key": "home",
        "lean_label": "Leganes"
      },
      "over_under": {
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        "avg_total": 3.41,
        "away_avg_scored": 2.1,
        "confidence": "high",
        "home_avg_scored": 1.1,
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        "pick_prob": 66.2,
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      "prob_source": "poisson",
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        "edge": 14.3,
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    },
    "correct_score_insight": {
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      "most_likely": {
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    },
    "home_xg": 1.72,
    "homepage_pick": null,
    "market_cards": [
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        "id": "ou_2_5",
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        "ev_available": true,
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        "id": "correct_score",
        "sort_key": 808.8,
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        "top_label": "1-1",
        "top_prob": 9.6
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    ],
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      "away_team_id": 4665,
      "away_team_logo": "/static/teams/4665.webp",
      "away_team_name": "Racing Santander",
      "country_flag": "/static/images/country/es.svg",
      "country_name": "Spain",
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      "home_expected_goals": null,
      "home_team_id": 537,
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      "league_country": "Spain",
      "league_id": 141,
      "league_logo": "/static/leagues/141.webp",
      "league_name": "Segunda Divisi\u00f3n",
      "league_season": 2025,
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      "score_fulltime_home": null,
      "status_long": "Not Started",
      "status_short": "NS"
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        ],
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
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              "hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
            },
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      },
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      "variance_flag": false
    },
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      "algorithm": {
        "enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
        "game_typing_module": true,
        "version": "2.0.0"
      },
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      "best_tracked_ev": 0.0592,
      "confidence": 5.5,
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      },
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          "btts_yes_prob": 0.682,
          "draw_prob": 0.2515,
          "max_1x2_prob": 0.3806,
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          "total_xg": 3.41,
          "under_prob": 0.338,
          "xg_diff": 0.03
        },
        "type": "high_scoring",
        "typing_weights_enabled": true
      },
      "hero_display_pick": null,
      "longshot_picks": [],
      "markets": {
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          "implied_prob": 0.3223,
          "max_ev_side": "home",
          "model_prob": 0.3806,
          "side": "home",
          "side_label": "Leganes"
        },
        "btts": {
          "decision": "small_edge",
          "edge": 0.0533,
          "ev": 0.023,
          "implied_prob": 0.6287,
          "model_prob": 0.682,
          "side": "yes",
          "value_side": "yes"
        },
        "ou_2_5": {
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          "edge": 0.0637,
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          "implied_prob": 0.5983,
          "model_prob": 0.662,
          "side": "over",
          "value_side": "over"
        }
      },
      "match_id": 1392186,
      "match_regime": {
        "action": "optional",
        "actionable": true,
        "clear_edge": false,
        "code": "thin_edge",
        "execution_line_key": null,
        "insight_line_key": null,
        "max_valid_ev": 0.0592,
        "min_ev": 0.02,
        "stake_mult": 0.25,
        "use_split_strip": false
      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.368,
        "draw": 0.2515,
        "home": 0.3806
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "high_total_goals"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Racing Santander",
        "home": "Leganes"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.048988,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.0592,
        "implied_prob": 0.5983,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.662,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "over",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 2
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1392186,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-10T16:00:44.670723+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang Segunda División Perlawanan Jejak Leganes Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak Racing Santander Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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Segunda División — Kedudukan

#	PASUKAN	P	M	S	K	Mata
1	Racing Santander	42	25	7	10	82
2	Deportivo La Coruña	42	22	11	9	77
3	Almeria	42	22	8	12	74
4	Malaga	42	21	10	11	73
5	Las Palmas	42	20	13	9	73
6	Castellón	42	20	12	10	72
7	Burgos	42	20	12	10	72
8	Eibar	42	19	10	13	67
9	Sporting Gijón	42	18	7	17	61
10	Córdoba	42	17	10	15	61
11	AD Ceuta FC	42	17	10	15	61
12	Albacete	42	16	11	15	59
13	FC Andorra	42	16	10	16	58
14	Granada CF	42	12	12	18	48
15	Real Sociedad II	42	12	11	19	47
16	Leganes	42	11	13	18	46
17	Valladolid	42	12	10	20	46
18	Cádiz	42	11	10	21	43
19	Mirandes	42	10	10	22	40
20	Huesca	42	9	11	22	38
21	Cultural Leonesa	42	9	10	23	37
22	Zaragoza	42	8	12	22	36

#	PASUKAN	P	J	B	+/-	Mata
1	Racing Santander	42	90	61	+29	82
2	Almeria	42	81	63	+18	74
3	Malaga	42	75	52	+23	73
4	Castellón	42	70	51	+19	72
5	Deportivo La Coruña	42	65	44	+21	77
6	FC Andorra	42	62	54	+8	58
7	Sporting Gijón	42	60	54	+6	61
8	Las Palmas	42	57	40	+17	73
9	Córdoba	42	57	61	-4	61
10	Albacete	42	56	55	+1	59
11	Eibar	42	52	40	+12	67
12	Real Sociedad II	42	52	61	-9	47
13	AD Ceuta FC	42	51	63	-12	61
14	Granada CF	42	50	56	-6	48
15	Burgos	42	48	33	+15	72
16	Mirandes	42	47	69	-22	40
17	Valladolid	42	44	57	-13	46
18	Leganes	42	43	51	-8	46
19	Cádiz	42	41	61	-20	43
20	Huesca	42	41	63	-22	38
21	Cultural Leonesa	42	39	68	-29	37
22	Zaragoza	42	35	59	-24	36

#	PASUKAN	P	xG	xGC	+/-	Mata
1	Castellón	42	41.1	29.0	+12.1	72
2	Valladolid	42	34.2	23.6	+10.6	46
3	Córdoba	42	39.1	32.6	+6.5	61
4	Eibar	42	38.5	32.4	+6.1	67
5	Racing Santander	42	36.6	32.0	+4.6	82
6	Burgos	42	32.1	27.9	+4.2	72
7	Malaga	42	36.9	33.4	+3.5	73
8	Granada CF	42	32.0	29.2	+2.8	48
9	Las Palmas	42	22.9	20.6	+2.3	73
10	Deportivo La Coruña	42	30.2	28.3	+1.9	77
11	Albacete	42	35.2	33.7	+1.5	59
12	Sporting Gijón	42	30.8	29.4	+1.4	61
13	Almeria	42	32.7	31.4	+1.3	74
14	Zaragoza	42	30.6	30.5	+0.1	36
15	Leganes	42	34.1	35.4	-1.3	46
16	FC Andorra	42	31.8	33.5	-1.7	58
17	Huesca	42	27.3	29.6	-2.3	38
18	Real Sociedad II	42	30.7	38.6	-7.9	47
19	AD Ceuta FC	42	35.3	44.9	-9.6	61
20	Mirandes	42	28.2	38.8	-10.6	40
21	Cádiz	42	26.9	39.4	-12.5	43
22	Cultural Leonesa	42	29.1	42.3	-13.2	37