Ramalan / Bola Sepak / England. Liga Perdana Inggeris / Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham

Audit Ramalan: Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham Ramalan, Odds & Tip Pertaruhan AI

Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolverhampton Wanderers
May 17, 2026 - 14:00
1 1.19
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 87%
Fulham Fulham

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Fulham at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa

Gred ramalan F

Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.

  • Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 matlamat) ✔ Betul
  • Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ tak betul
  • 1X2 Fulham Lukis ✖ tak betul
  • Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 0-0 1-1 ✔ Betul

Model lwn Pasaran Penutup

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Fulham higher than the statistical model.

Jurang kebarangkalian terbesar: Fulham -13.0 pp

Hasil Model Menutup Pasaran Perbezaan isyarat
Wolverhampton Wanderers 32.2% 24.2% +8.0 pp Model Higher
Draw 30.4% 25.4% +5.0 pp Aligned
Fulham 37.5% 50.4% -13.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Fulham's win probability at 50.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

Selepas sepenuh masa, hasilnya ialah Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Fulham than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Fulham; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fulham by 13.0 percentage points (50.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Laman pertaruhan premium stake: pengguna baharu boleh guna kod promo FHn2uDc1. Daftar sekarang

Garis Masa Ramalan

Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.

  1. May 17, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 32.1% · Draw 30.4% · Fulham 37.5%
    • xG · Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.19 — Fulham 1.30
  2. May 17, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wolverhampton Wanderers 4.02 · Draw 3.84 · Fulham 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 24.2% · Draw 25.4% · Fulham 50.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. May 17, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wolverhampton Wanderers 4.02 · Draw 3.84 · Fulham 1.93
    • Implied 1X2 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 24.2% · Draw 25.4% · Fulham 50.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. May 17, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Gambar Sejarah

Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.

Keputusan sejarah: Monitor
Keputusan Sejarah Monitor
Hasil Missed
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
Kebolehpercayaan Ramalan 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Bukti ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 35/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 26, 2026 · 05:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1822900

Closing Odds 1.93
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Wolverhampton Wanderers 1–1 Fulham
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Semakan Soalan Lazim

Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.

Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.

Taklimat AI untuk perlawanan ini belum tersedia. Selepas naik taraf pelayan, jalankan semula “Batch generate odds” untuk menjana ringkasan.

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      },
      "match_tier": "value_game",
      "no_clear_primary": false,
      "probabilities": {
        "away": 0.3745,
        "draw": 0.3039,
        "home": 0.3215
      },
      "reason_codes": [
        "no_ev_1x2",
        "variance_medium",
        "longshot_high_variance"
      ],
      "secondary_pick": null,
      "secondary_picks": [],
      "suppressed_primary": null,
      "teams": {
        "away": "Fulham",
        "home": "Wolverhampton Wanderers"
      },
      "top_pick": {
        "composite_score": 0.056639,
        "decision": "value_bet",
        "ev": 0.1684,
        "implied_prob": 0.4613,
        "market": "ou_2_5",
        "model_prob": 0.546,
        "not_dominant": false,
        "primary_strength": "clear",
        "risk_band": "strong",
        "risk_tier": "primary",
        "side": "under",
        "slot": "primary",
        "speculative_primary": false
      },
      "valid_markets_count": 4
    }
  },
  "fixture_id": 1379338,
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-05-17T13:59:09.634779+00:00",
  "lang_id": "en"
}

Ramalan Berkaitan

Lihat Perlawanan Akan Datang Liga Perdana Inggeris Perlawanan Jejak Wolverhampton Wanderers Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Jejak Fulham Ramalan Perlawanan Seterusnya Lihat Ramalan Bola Sepak Hari Ini

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Langgan Sekarang
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Liga Perdana Inggeris Liga Perdana Inggeris — Kedudukan
# PASUKAN P M S K Mata
1 Arsenal 38 26 7 5 85
2 Manchester City 38 23 9 6 78
3 Manchester United 38 20 11 7 71
4 Aston Villa 38 19 8 11 65
5 Liverpool 38 17 9 12 60
6 Bournemouth 38 13 18 7 57
7 Sunderland 38 14 12 12 54
8 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 14 11 13 53
9 Brentford 38 14 11 13 53
10 Chelsea 38 14 10 14 52
11 Fulham 38 15 7 16 52
12 Newcastle United 38 14 7 17 49
13 Everton 38 13 10 15 49
14 Leeds United 38 11 14 13 47
15 Crystal Palace 38 11 12 15 45
16 Nottingham Forest 38 11 11 16 44
17 Tottenham Hotspur 38 10 11 17 41
18 West Ham United 38 10 9 19 39
19 Burnley 38 4 10 24 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 3 11 24 20
# PASUKAN P J B +/- Mata
1 Manchester City 38 77 35 +42 78
2 Arsenal 38 71 27 +44 85
3 Manchester United 38 69 50 +19 71
4 Liverpool 38 63 53 +10 60
5 Chelsea 38 58 52 +6 52
6 Bournemouth 38 58 54 +4 57
7 Aston Villa 38 56 49 +7 65
8 Brentford 38 55 52 +3 53
9 Newcastle United 38 53 55 -2 49
10 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 52 46 +6 53
11 Leeds United 38 49 56 -7 47
12 Nottingham Forest 38 48 51 -3 44
13 Tottenham Hotspur 38 48 57 -9 41
14 Everton 38 47 50 -3 49
15 Fulham 38 47 51 -4 52
16 West Ham United 38 46 65 -19 39
17 Sunderland 38 42 48 -6 54
18 Crystal Palace 38 41 51 -10 45
19 Burnley 38 38 75 -37 22
20 Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 27 68 -41 20
# PASUKAN P xG xGC +/- Mata
1 Arsenal 38 64.5 28.8 +35.7 85
2 Manchester City 38 68.8 42.6 +26.2 78
3 Manchester United 38 64.7 48.5 +16.2 71
4 Liverpool 38 60.1 46.9 +13.2 60
5 Chelsea 38 63.5 51.9 +11.6 52
6 Brighton & Hove Albion 38 57.4 49.9 +7.5 53
7 Crystal Palace 38 57.6 50.2 +7.4 45
8 Bournemouth 38 62.5 56.8 +5.7 57
9 Newcastle United 38 57.2 51.5 +5.7 49
10 Brentford 38 59.3 54.3 +5.0 53
11 Leeds United 38 54.4 55.1 -0.7 47
12 Fulham 38 47.9 52.2 -4.3 52
13 Aston Villa 38 47.6 54.3 -6.7 65
14 Nottingham Forest 38 46.3 56.3 -10.0 44
15 Everton 38 45.9 55.9 -10.0 49
16 Tottenham Hotspur 38 40.8 52.2 -11.4 41
17 West Ham United 38 45.1 56.8 -11.7 39
18 Sunderland 38 39.1 53.4 -14.3 54
19 Wolverhampton Wanderers 38 35.5 58.1 -22.6 20
20 Burnley 38 32.3 74.9 -42.6 22