The model missed the final outcome (Brighton & Hove Albion win 1–3).
The model had projected Chelsea at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Chelsea Brighton & Hove Albion ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-3 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.96) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Chelsea; match finished Brighton & Hove Albion
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Brighton & Hove Albion win 1–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Chelsea 1.71 — Brighton & Hove Albion 1.25
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Sep 27, 2025 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Brighton & Hove Albion win · 1–3
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pending
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Semakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
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Langgan Sekarang
Liga Perdana Inggeris — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 23 | 9 | 6 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 20 | 11 | 7 | 71 |
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 65 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 60 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 57 |
| 7 | Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 53 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 14 | 11 | 13 | 53 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 52 |
| 11 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 52 |
| 12 | Newcastle United | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 49 |
| 13 | Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 49 |
| 14 | Leeds United | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 47 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 45 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 44 |
| 17 | Tottenham Hotspur | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 41 |
| 18 | West Ham United | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 39 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | 20 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 77 | 35 | +42 | 78 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 71 | 27 | +44 | 85 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 69 | 50 | +19 | 71 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 38 | 63 | 53 | +10 | 60 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 38 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 52 |
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 58 | 54 | +4 | 57 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 56 | 49 | +7 | 65 |
| 8 | Brentford | 38 | 55 | 52 | +3 | 53 |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 38 | 53 | 55 | -2 | 49 |
| 10 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 38 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 53 |
| 11 | Leeds United | 38 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 47 |
| 12 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 48 | 51 | -3 | 44 |
| 13 | Tottenham Hotspur | 38 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 41 |
| 14 | Everton | 38 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 49 |
| 15 | Fulham | 38 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 52 |
| 16 | West Ham United | 38 | 46 | 65 | -19 | 39 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 38 | 42 | 48 | -6 | 54 |
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 45 |
| 19 | Burnley | 38 | 38 | 75 | -37 | 22 |
| 20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 20 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 64.5 | 28.8 | +35.7 | 85 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 38 | 68.8 | 42.6 | +26.2 | 78 |
| 3 | Manchester United | 38 | 64.7 | 48.5 | +16.2 | 71 |
| 4 | Liverpool | 38 | 60.1 | 46.9 | +13.2 | 60 |
| 5 | Chelsea | 38 | 63.5 | 51.9 | +11.6 | 52 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 38 | 57.4 | 49.9 | +7.5 | 53 |
| 7 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 57.6 | 50.2 | +7.4 | 45 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 38 | 62.5 | 56.8 | +5.7 | 57 |
| 9 | Newcastle United | 38 | 57.2 | 51.5 | +5.7 | 49 |
| 10 | Brentford | 38 | 59.3 | 54.3 | +5.0 | 53 |
| 11 | Leeds United | 38 | 54.4 | 55.1 | -0.7 | 47 |
| 12 | Fulham | 38 | 47.9 | 52.2 | -4.3 | 52 |
| 13 | Aston Villa | 38 | 47.6 | 54.3 | -6.7 | 65 |
| 14 | Nottingham Forest | 38 | 46.3 | 56.3 | -10.0 | 44 |
| 15 | Everton | 38 | 45.9 | 55.9 | -10.0 | 49 |
| 16 | Tottenham Hotspur | 38 | 40.8 | 52.2 | -11.4 | 41 |
| 17 | West Ham United | 38 | 45.1 | 56.8 | -11.7 | 39 |
| 18 | Sunderland | 38 | 39.1 | 53.4 | -14.3 | 54 |
| 19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 38 | 35.5 | 58.1 | -22.6 | 20 |
| 20 | Burnley | 38 | 32.3 | 74.9 | -42.6 | 22 |