The model missed the final outcome (Junior win 2–3).
The model had projected Atletico Nacional at 63.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasaran yang dijejaki vs hasil sepenuh masa
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-perlawanan lean dengan keputusan sepenuh masa.
- Pasaran Ramalan Hasilnya Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 matlamat) ✔ Betul
- Kedua-dua Pasukan Menjaringkan Gol BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Betul
- 1X2 Atletico Nacional Junior ✖ tak betul
- Cerapan skor tepat 2-1, 2-0, 1-1, 1-0, 3-1 2-3 ✖ tak betul
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.22) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Atletico Nacional; match finished Junior
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The full-time result was Junior win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Garis Masa Ramalan
Cara ramalan ini beralih daripada ramalan kepada semakan sepenuh masa.
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Before kickoff Forecast generated
- xG · Atletico Nacional 2.20 — Junior 1.02
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May 25, 2025 · 21:00 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Junior win · 2–3
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FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Gambar Sejarah
Dibekukan pada sepak mula — keluaran model seperti sebelum perlawanan bermula.
Metrik pra-padanan (konteks sejarah)
- Validation: Pending
- High xG deviation from league baseline (63%+)
- Strong model lean
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotSemakan Soalan Lazim
- Sejauh manakah ramalan itu tepat?
- Halaman ini menilai pasaran berarah (1X2, Lebih/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) berbanding keputusan sepenuh masa. Gred ramalan menggambarkan bilangan pasaran yang dijejaki itu sepadan dengan realiti.
- Apakah ukuran Ketepatan xG?
- Ketepatan xG membandingkan profil matlamat jangkaan pra-perlawanan model dengan garis skor sebenar — bukan sama ada setiap pasaran mencecah. Semakan arah yang kukuh boleh wujud bersama dengan skor ketepatan xG yang sederhana.
- Mengapakah skor tepat tidak diramalkan?
- Hasil skor betul ialah ekor berkemungkinan rendah walaupun model membaca profil padanan dengan baik. Kami menyerlahkan tong skor tertinggi untuk konteks; kehilangan baris tepat tidak membatalkan semakan arah.
- Adakah ini meningkatkan rekod AI?
- Setiap perlawanan selesai dilog masuk dalam saluran paip pengesahan kami. Kadar hit teragregat dan kajian CLV diterbitkan secara berasingan — halaman ini ialah jejak audit setiap perlawanan.
Ramalan adalah untuk tujuan maklumat sahaja. Sentiasa berjudi dengan penuh tanggungjawab dan dalam had anda. Prestasi masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil masa depan.
Terokai Kandungan Ramalan Lain
Dapatkan Ramalan Premium untuk Atletico Nacional & Junior!
Buka analisis mendalam, tip pertaruhan eksklusif, dan ramalan perlawanan dengan perkhidmatan langganan premium kami.
Langgan Sekarang
Primera A Colombia — Kedudukan
| # | PASUKAN | P | M | S | K | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Medellín | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 40 |
| 2 | Deportes Tolima | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 38 |
| 3 | Atletico Nacional | 20 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 37 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 20 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 37 |
| 5 | Junior | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 35 |
| 6 | Fortaleza FC | 20 | 9 | 8 | 3 | 35 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 31 |
| 8 | América de Cali | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 29 |
| 9 | Alianza Petrolera | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 29 |
| 10 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 27 |
| 11 | Once Caldas | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 27 |
| 12 | Millonarios FC | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 26 |
| 13 | Llaneros FC | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 25 |
| 14 | Deportivo Cali | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 21 |
| 15 | Union Magdalena | 20 | 6 | 3 | 11 | 21 |
| 16 | Envigado | 20 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 20 |
| 17 | Deportivo Pasto | 20 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 19 |
| 18 | Deportivo Pereira | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 18 |
| 19 | Chico | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 16 |
| 20 | La Equidad | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | J | B | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Medellín | 20 | 46 | 28 | +18 | 40 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional | 20 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 37 |
| 3 | Junior | 20 | 35 | 25 | +10 | 35 |
| 4 | Bucaramanga | 20 | 31 | 20 | +11 | 37 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 20 | 29 | 17 | +12 | 38 |
| 6 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 20 | 29 | 27 | +2 | 27 |
| 7 | Deportivo Pasto | 20 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Fortaleza FC | 20 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 35 |
| 9 | Alianza Petrolera | 20 | 24 | 22 | +2 | 29 |
| 10 | América de Cali | 20 | 23 | 19 | +4 | 29 |
| 11 | Millonarios FC | 20 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 26 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cali | 20 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 21 |
| 13 | Union Magdalena | 20 | 22 | 32 | -10 | 21 |
| 14 | Santa Fe | 20 | 21 | 17 | +4 | 31 |
| 15 | Once Caldas | 20 | 21 | 24 | -3 | 27 |
| 16 | Deportivo Pereira | 20 | 19 | 36 | -17 | 18 |
| 17 | Envigado | 20 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 20 |
| 18 | Llaneros FC | 20 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 25 |
| 19 | Chico | 20 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 16 |
| 20 | La Equidad | 20 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 14 |
| # | PASUKAN | P | xG | xGC | +/- | Mata |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente Medellín | 20 | 66.2 | 41.7 | +24.5 | 40 |
| 2 | Atletico Nacional | 20 | 64.8 | 46.6 | +18.2 | 37 |
| 3 | Bucaramanga | 20 | 48.0 | 37.0 | +11.0 | 37 |
| 4 | Millonarios FC | 20 | 50.1 | 41.6 | +8.5 | 26 |
| 5 | Deportes Tolima | 20 | 54.4 | 47.5 | +6.9 | 38 |
| 6 | América de Cali | 20 | 55.1 | 48.6 | +6.5 | 29 |
| 7 | Alianza Petrolera | 20 | 39.9 | 36.4 | +3.5 | 29 |
| 8 | Junior | 20 | 57.0 | 54.1 | +2.9 | 35 |
| 9 | Santa Fe | 20 | 56.8 | 58.1 | -1.3 | 31 |
| 10 | Fortaleza FC | 20 | 45.0 | 46.5 | -1.5 | 35 |
| 11 | Águilas Doradas Rionegro | 20 | 40.5 | 43.3 | -2.8 | 27 |
| 12 | Deportivo Pasto | 20 | 36.8 | 39.8 | -3.0 | 19 |
| 13 | Deportivo Cali | 20 | 38.9 | 42.4 | -3.5 | 21 |
| 14 | Deportivo Pereira | 20 | 35.5 | 42.8 | -7.3 | 18 |
| 15 | Envigado | 20 | 32.6 | 40.9 | -8.3 | 20 |
| 16 | Llaneros FC | 20 | 32.9 | 41.9 | -9.0 | 25 |
| 17 | Once Caldas | 20 | 41.7 | 51.2 | -9.5 | 27 |
| 18 | Union Magdalena | 20 | 35.1 | 45.6 | -10.5 | 21 |
| 19 | La Equidad | 20 | 30.6 | 41.5 | -10.9 | 14 |
| 20 | Chico | 20 | 32.3 | 46.8 | -14.5 | 16 |