Prédictions / Coupe du monde 2026 / Paraguay vs France

Paraguay vs France

Group D
Paraguay Paraguay
Jul 04, 2026 - 21:00
0 0.94
1 1.76
France France

Betting Signal

Le modèle dit
France 55.0%
Le marché dit
France 81.3%
Différence
26.3 pp
Statut
Use caution — signals are mixed

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers France (81.3%).

France — market direction supports the model, but pricing still diverges (-26.3 pp).

Marché vs modèle

Paraguay
18.6% vs 5.01%
+13.6 pp
Draw
26.3% vs 13.65%
+12.7 pp
France
55.0% vs 81.34%
-26.3 pp

Le plus grand écart

France -26.3 pp

Le marché est nettement plus optimiste sur France que sur le modèle.

The fair estimate differs substantially from current market pricing. Large divergences can occur when rating inputs are incomplete, team-strength estimates are uncertain, or the market incorporates information not present in the model. Interpret with caution.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Prévisions IA
Paraguay 18.6%
Draw 26.3%
France 55.0%

Généré à partir d'une simulation de Poisson ajustée par Elo. Pas les cotes des bookmakers.

Afficher les données complètes du modèle
Probabilités de lignes Poisson
Ligne Plus Moins
0.5 91.8% 8.2%
1.5 76.6% 23.4%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Attentes du match
Plus de 2,5 buts
50.6%
Balanced
Moins de 2,5 buts
49.4%
Les deux équipes marquent
52.0%
Balanced
Clean sheet probable
48.0%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 52.0% · No 48.0% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Scores les plus probables
Score Probabilité
1-1 12.6%
0-1 10.4%
0-2 10.4%
1-2 9.8%
0-0 8.2%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 12.6% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Phase de correspondance: Finished

Cycle de vie des décisions

Stade actuel: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prédiction générée
  2. Comparaison du marché
    Entrée En attente
  3. Validation réussie
  4. Clôture enregistrée
    Clôture 1.2
  5. CLV évalué
    CLV En attente Awaiting CLV calculation
Retour aux prévisions du jour
Matchs Group D