Prédictions / Coupe du monde 2026 / Pays-Bas vs Maroc

Pays-Bas vs Maroc

Group F
Pays-Bas Pays-Bas
Jun 30, 2026 - 01:00
1(2) 1.58
1(3) 1.12
Maroc Maroc

Betting Signal

Le modèle dit
Pays-Bas 46.6%
Le marché dit
Pays-Bas 39.8%
Différence
6.8 pp
Statut
Direction aligned; check pricing gap separately

OddsGPT Interpretation

The betting market strongly prefers Pays-Bas (39.8%).

Pays-Bas — market direction supports the model lean.

Marché vs modèle

Pays-Bas
46.6% vs 39.81%
+6.8 pp
Draw
28.1% vs 31.39%
-3.3 pp
Maroc
25.3% vs 28.8%
-3.5 pp

Le plus grand écart

Pays-Bas +6.8 pp

Le modèle est nettement plus optimiste sur Pays-Bas que sur le marché.

Fair estimate and market pricing differ modestly. Monitor before kickoff.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

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Prévisions IA
Pays-Bas 46.6%
Draw 28.1%
Maroc 25.3%

Généré à partir d'une simulation de Poisson ajustée par Elo. Pas les cotes des bookmakers.

Afficher les données complètes du modèle
Probabilités de lignes Poisson
Ligne Plus Moins
0.5 91.7% 8.3%
1.5 76.7% 23.3%
2.5 50.6% 49.4%
3.5 28.6% 71.4%
4.5 13.7% 86.3%
Attentes du match
Plus de 2,5 buts
50.6%
Balanced
Moins de 2,5 buts
49.4%
Les deux équipes marquent
55.0%
Balanced
Clean sheet probable
45.0%

Poisson total-goals expectation Σλ = 2.7 (Over 2.5 50.6% · Under 2.5 49.4%).

BTTS Yes 55.0% · No 45.0% — neither side dominates the BTTS split.

Scores les plus probables
Score Probabilité
1-1 13.4%
2-1 9.4%
1-0 9.1%
2-0 8.4%
0-0 8.3%

Top Poisson cell: 1-1 at 13.4% (draw-type scoreline; exact-score variance remains high).

FAQ
How are win probabilities calculated?

Home and away expected goals (λ) are derived from Elo ratings and tournament parameters, then fed into a Dixon–Coles Poisson grid to produce 1X2, goal-line, and scoreline probabilities shown on this page.

Is this page betting advice?

No. OddsGPT displays model probabilities for informational purposes only. We do not recommend wagers or stake sizes on this page.

What does xG / λ mean here?

λ is the model’s pre-match expected goals for each team before variance is simulated. It is an input to the Poisson matrix, not a post-match expected-goals stat.

Why are exact score probabilities low?

Even the most likely scoreline typically sits below 15% because many score combinations share the probability mass — that is normal for Poisson models.

Phase de correspondance: Finished

Cycle de vie des décisions

Stade actuel: Awaiting CLV

  1. Prédiction générée
  2. Comparaison du marché
    Entrée En attente
  3. Validation réussie
  4. Clôture enregistrée
    Clôture 2.46
  5. CLV évalué
    CLV En attente Awaiting CLV calculation
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Matchs Group F