Genoa · Modelo 41.5%
implícita 19.8%
Mercado de consenso principal · vehículo eléctrico: +11.0%
Veredicto final de apuestas
Los diferentes mercados valoran la eficiencia de manera diferente: 1X2 puede ser un pase, mientras que los mercados de objetivos aún muestran ventaja.
- Valor posible en 1X2: Genoa (+11.0% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
- Borde delgado: Más de 2.5 (+1.8% - debajo de la barra de tamaño predeterminada)
- Valor posible: BTTS Sí (+4.1% EV con las mejores probabilidades)
Convicción moderada (6/10): una línea selectiva, no una apuesta por múltiples mercados.
1X2
✔ Genoa (Valor)
Por qué
El modelo tasa Genoa (1X2) unos 21.7 puntos porcentuales por encima de la implícita de cierre — la lectura estructural principal frente a la línea.
Sí 48.4% · No 51.6%
Vehículo eléctrico Sí +4.1% · EV No -12.3%
Lectura de valor: BTTS Sí
Más de 2.5 41.2% · Menos de 2.5 58.8%
EV terminado +1.8% · EV inferior -3.6%
Lectura de valor:
Más de 2.5
Más probable
1-1
Probabilidad 13.0%
El marcador exacto tiene mucha varianza — solo apuestas mínimas por diversión.
Decisión de apuesta (modelo versus mercado EV)
Oportunidad de valor — Al menos un mercado muestra +EV estimado con las mejores cuotas decimales actuales (umbral: 2.0%).
Fuerza de la decisión: 6.0 / 10
- Línea primaria identificada (+1,0)
- EV principal por encima del 10 % (+1,0)
- Probabilidad máxima de 1X2 por debajo del 50 % (sin 1X2 dominante) (−1,0)
- Probabilidad de empate superior al 30% (−0,5)
- Dos o más líneas +EV válidas en el umbral (+0,5)
Fuera/U 2.5:
EV terminado +1.8% ·
EV inferior -3.6%
(12 pares de libros)
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +4.1% · EV No -12.3%
BTTS: Vehículo eléctrico Sí +4.1% · EV No -12.3%
Motor de decisiones OddsGPT v2.1.0(EV + Estructura de Mercado + Ajuste de Riesgo)
Consulta las Cuotas en 1xBet
El informe IA aún no está disponible para este partido. Vuelva a ejecutar «Generación masiva de cuotas» tras actualizar el servidor para generar el resumen.
View technical JSON
{
"bundle_version": 1,
"content_hash": "a374a69bf0bed1851f57cf6d7196eaec222125b15ff3ecabf1d1b339540714fc",
"decision_algo_version": "2.1.0",
"facts": {
"ai_fp": {
"away_predicted_xg": 1.31,
"away_win_prob": 0.4152,
"btts_no_prob": 0.516,
"btts_yes_prob": 0.484,
"dc_rho": -0.13,
"draw_prob": 0.3115,
"fair_odds_away": 2.41,
"fair_odds_draw": 3.21,
"fair_odds_home": 3.66,
"home_predicted_xg": 1.02,
"home_win_prob": 0.2733,
"over_25_prob": 0.412,
"prediction_confidence": "high",
"under_25_prob": 0.588
},
"api_prediction": {
"advice": "Combo Double chance : Lecce or draw and -3.5 goals",
"main_pick_display": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"percent_away": "30%",
"percent_draw": "35%",
"percent_home": "35%",
"winner_name": "Lecce"
},
"away_xg": 1.31,
"betting_insight": {
"bet_label": "Genoa",
"confidence": null,
"main_pick_meta": {
"confidence": "low",
"display_text": "No Strong Winner Bet",
"edge": 0.2168,
"edge_gap": 0.1034,
"market": "1X2",
"market_prob": 0.1982,
"model_prob": 0.4151,
"pick_type": "no_strong",
"probabilities": {
"away": 41.5,
"draw": 31.2,
"home": 27.3
},
"reason": "No clear edge in 1X2 market",
"selection": null,
"selection_name": null
},
"market_comparison": [
{
"affi_link": "",
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"odd": 4.88
}
],
"risk_color": null,
"risk_key": null,
"stacked_market": null,
"value_bet": {
"best_odds": 4.88,
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"display_market": "Genoa Win",
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market_fair_odds": 5.04,
"market_odds": 4.88,
"model_odds": 2.41,
"overround": 3.4,
"prob_edge": 21.0,
"value_pct": 102.5,
"value_rating": "no_value"
}
},
"betting_markets": {
"btts": {
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"away_failed_to_score": 14,
"away_played": 37,
"away_score_rate": 73.0,
"home_clean_sheet": 9,
"home_failed_to_score": 19,
"home_played": 37,
"home_score_rate": 63.9,
"no_prob": 51.6,
"pick": "Yes",
"pick_prob": 51.6,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": true,
"yes_prob": 48.4
},
"correct_score": {
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"home_expected": 1.02,
"scores": [
{
"away": 1,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
},
{
"away": 1,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-1",
"prob": 12.7
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-0",
"prob": 9.9
},
{
"away": 0,
"home": 0,
"label": "0-0",
"prob": 9.7
},
{
"away": 2,
"home": 1,
"label": "1-2",
"prob": 8.5
}
],
"source": "xG"
},
"double_chance": {
"options": [
{
"key": "1X",
"label": "Lecce or Draw",
"prob": 58.4
},
{
"key": "12",
"label": "Lecce or Genoa",
"prob": 68.8
},
{
"key": "X2",
"label": "Draw or Genoa",
"prob": 72.6
}
],
"pick_key": "X2",
"pick_label": "Draw or Genoa",
"pick_prob": 72.6
},
"match_winner": {
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"draw_pct": 31.1,
"home_pct": 27.3,
"lean_key": "away",
"lean_label": "Genoa"
},
"over_under": {
"api_hint": "-3.5",
"avg_total": 2.33,
"away_avg_scored": 1.1,
"confidence": "medium",
"home_avg_scored": 0.7,
"over_prob": 41.2,
"pick": "Under 2.5",
"pick_prob": 58.8,
"source": "xG_dc",
"strong_pick": false,
"total_expected": 2.33,
"under_prob": 58.8
},
"prob_source": "poisson",
"value_bet_enhanced": {
"bookmaker_id": 0,
"bookmaker_name": "Pinnacle",
"edge": 102.5,
"implied_prob": 20.5,
"is_value": false,
"label": "Away",
"market": "Genoa Win",
"model_prob": 41.5,
"odds": 4.88
}
},
"closing_line_bundle": {
"away_team": "Genoa",
"closing_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"closing_capture": "PRE1",
"early_bookmaker": "Pinnacle",
"early_capture": "PRE30",
"has_data": true,
"home_team": "Lecce",
"largest_move_kind": null,
"max_abs_move_pp": 0.0,
"model_vs_closing": [
{
"closing_implied_pct": 52.29,
"gap_pp": -24.96,
"kind": "1x2_h",
"model_pct": 27.33
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 27.88,
"gap_pp": 3.28,
"kind": "1x2_d",
"model_pct": 31.16
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 19.82,
"gap_pp": 21.68,
"kind": "1x2_a",
"model_pct": 41.51
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 40.25,
"gap_pp": 0.95,
"kind": "ou_o",
"model_pct": 41.2
},
{
"closing_implied_pct": 59.75,
"gap_pp": -0.95,
"kind": "ou_u",
"model_pct": 58.8
}
],
"movement": [
{
"closing": 1.85,
"early": 1.85,
"implied_closing_pct": 52.29,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 52.29,
"kind": "1x2_h"
},
{
"closing": 3.47,
"early": 3.47,
"implied_closing_pct": 27.88,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 27.88,
"kind": "1x2_d"
},
{
"closing": 4.88,
"early": 4.88,
"implied_closing_pct": 19.82,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 19.82,
"kind": "1x2_a"
},
{
"closing": 2.39,
"early": 2.39,
"implied_closing_pct": 40.25,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
"implied_early_pct": 40.25,
"kind": "ou_o"
},
{
"closing": 1.61,
"early": 1.61,
"implied_closing_pct": 59.75,
"implied_delta_pp": 0.0,
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"kind": "ou_u"
}
],
"movement_negligible": true,
"same_bookmaker": true,
"top_value_gap": {
"gap_pp": 21.7,
"kind": "1x2_a"
}
},
"correct_score_insight": {
"best_value": null,
"most_likely": {
"label": "1-1",
"prob": 13.0
}
},
"home_xg": 1.02,
"homepage_pick": null,
"market_cards": [
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1102,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.0,
"text": "+11.0%"
},
"featured": true,
"id": "1x2",
"implied_prob": 0.1982,
"max_ev": 0.1102,
"max_ev_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 11.0,
"text": "+11.0%"
},
"model_prob": 0.4151,
"side_label": "Genoa",
"sort_key": 10249.18,
"tier": "best"
},
{
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1228,
"ev_no_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -12.3,
"text": "-12.3%"
},
"ev_yes": 0.0406,
"ev_yes_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 4.1,
"text": "+4.1%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "btts",
"max_ev": 0.0406,
"no_prob": 51.6,
"sort_key": 10036.54,
"tier": "best",
"value_side": "yes",
"yes_prob": 48.4
},
{
"decision": "small_edge",
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0012,
"ev_over_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": 0.1,
"text": "+0.1%"
},
"ev_under": -0.0239,
"ev_under_display": {
"capped": false,
"raw_pct": -2.4,
"text": "-2.4%"
},
"featured": false,
"id": "ou_2_5",
"max_ev": 0.0012,
"over_prob": 41.2,
"sort_key": 5200.96,
"tier": "lean",
"under_prob": 58.8,
"value_side": "over"
},
{
"featured": false,
"id": "correct_score",
"sort_key": 819.0,
"tier": "risk",
"top_label": "1-1",
"top_prob": 13.0
}
],
"match": {
"away_expected_goals": null,
"away_team_id": 495,
"away_team_logo": "/static/teams/495.webp",
"away_team_name": "Genoa",
"country_flag": "/static/images/country/it.svg",
"country_name": "Italy",
"fixture_id": 1378238,
"goals_away": null,
"goals_home": null,
"home_expected_goals": null,
"home_team_id": 867,
"home_team_logo": "/static/teams/867.webp",
"home_team_name": "Lecce",
"league_country": "Italy",
"league_id": 135,
"league_logo": "/static/leagues/135.webp",
"league_name": "Serie A",
"league_season": 2025,
"match_date": "2026-05-24 13:00:00",
"score_fulltime_away": null,
"score_fulltime_home": null,
"status_long": "Not Started",
"status_short": "NS"
},
"match_decision": {
"confidence": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_md_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_md_line_above_ev",
"pred_conf_md_draw_above_30"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (open contest) (\u22121.0)",
"At least one tracked line above +EV threshold (+0.5)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"1x2_ev_mode": "market_first_p15",
"away": {
"alpha": 0.135,
"best_odd": 4.88,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.1982,
"model_prob": 0.4151,
"p_final": 0.2275
},
"draw": {
"alpha": 0.2852,
"best_odd": 3.47,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": 0.0094,
"ev": -0.0001,
"implied_prob": 0.2788,
"model_prob": 0.3116,
"p_final": 0.2882
},
"ev_available": true,
"home": {
"alpha": 0.3753,
"best_odd": 1.85,
"calibration": {
"active": false,
"hook": "CALIBRATE_1X2_P_FINAL"
},
"edge": -0.0937,
"ev": -0.2059,
"implied_prob": 0.5229,
"model_prob": 0.2733,
"p_final": 0.4293
}
},
"btts": {
"best_no_odd": 1.7,
"best_yes_odd": 2.15,
"edge_no": -0.043,
"edge_yes": 0.043,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_no": -0.1228,
"ev_yes": 0.0406,
"implied_no": 0.559,
"implied_yes": 0.441,
"n_bookmakers": 11,
"reliability": "medium"
},
"ou25": {
"best_over_odd": 2.43,
"best_under_odd": 1.66,
"edge_over": 0.0058,
"edge_under": -0.0058,
"ev_available": true,
"ev_over": 0.0012,
"ev_under": -0.0239,
"implied_over": 0.4062,
"implied_under": 0.5938,
"n_bookmakers": 12,
"reliability": "medium"
}
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"min_ev": 0.02,
"total_xg": 2.33,
"variance_flag": false
},
"unified_decision": {
"actionable_ev_threshold": 0.02,
"algorithm": {
"enabled_since": "2026-04-26",
"game_typing_module": true,
"version": "2.1.0"
},
"balanced_alternative": null,
"best_tracked_ev": 0.1102,
"confidence": 6.0,
"decision_confidence_v1": {
"breakdown": [
"pred_conf_v1_primary_line",
"pred_conf_v1_primary_ev_above_10",
"pred_conf_v1_max_1x2_under_50",
"pred_conf_v1_draw_above_30",
"pred_conf_v1_multi_ev_lines"
],
"breakdown_resolved": [
"Primary line identified (+1.0)",
"Primary EV above 10% (+1.0)",
"Max 1X2 prob under 50% (no dominant 1X2) (\u22121.0)",
"Draw probability above 30% (\u22120.5)",
"Two or more valid +EV lines at threshold (+0.5)"
],
"score": 6.0
},
"execution": {
"1x2_dominant": false,
"1x2_open_contest": true,
"grade": "B",
"stake_factor": 0.5
},
"favourite_misaligned_1x2": {
"active": false,
"gap": null,
"side": null
},
"game_type": {
"label_zh": "\u5747\u8861\uff08\u5f00\u653e\u8d5b\u679c\uff09",
"scoring_type": "balanced",
"signals": {
"btts_yes_prob": 0.484,
"draw_prob": 0.3116,
"max_1x2_prob": 0.4151,
"over_prob": 0.412,
"total_xg": 2.33,
"under_prob": 0.588,
"xg_diff": 0.29
},
"type": "balanced",
"typing_weights_enabled": true
},
"hero_display_pick": null,
"longshot_picks": [],
"markets": {
"1x2": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.0293,
"ev": 0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.1982,
"max_ev_side": "away",
"model_prob": 0.4151,
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Genoa"
},
"btts": {
"decision": "value_bet",
"edge": 0.043,
"ev": 0.0406,
"implied_prob": 0.441,
"model_prob": 0.484,
"side": "yes",
"value_side": "yes"
},
"ou_2_5": {
"decision": "small_edge",
"edge": 0.0058,
"ev": 0.0012,
"implied_prob": 0.4062,
"model_prob": 0.412,
"side": "over",
"value_side": "over"
}
},
"match_id": 1378238,
"match_regime": {
"action": "optional",
"actionable": true,
"clear_edge": false,
"code": "thin_edge",
"execution_line_key": null,
"insight_line_key": null,
"max_valid_ev": 0.1102,
"min_ev": 0.02,
"stake_mult": 0.25,
"use_split_strip": false
},
"match_tier": "value_game",
"no_clear_primary": false,
"probabilities": {
"away": 0.4151,
"draw": 0.3116,
"home": 0.2733
},
"reason_codes": [
"model_summary"
],
"secondary_pick": null,
"secondary_picks": [],
"suppressed_primary": null,
"teams": {
"away": "Genoa",
"home": "Lecce"
},
"top_pick": {
"composite_score": 0.050318,
"decision": "value_bet",
"ev": 0.1102,
"implied_prob": 0.1982,
"market": "1x2",
"model_prob": 0.4151,
"not_dominant": true,
"primary_strength": "clear",
"risk_band": "medium",
"risk_tier": "primary",
"side": "away",
"side_label": "Genoa",
"slot": "primary",
"speculative_primary": false
},
"valid_markets_count": 2
}
},
"fixture_id": 1378238,
"generated_at_utc": "2026-05-24T12:59:12.964680+00:00",
"lang_id": "en"
}
¿Cómo usar esto?
- Concéntrese en la línea principal cuando desee una idea viable.
- No combine muchas púas de punta fina;Los bordes no se suman de manera confiable.
- Trate las apuestas arriesgadas como jugadas opcionales y de alto riesgo únicamente.
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Serie A — Clasificación
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | G | E | P | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | 87 |
| 2 | Napoli | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 73 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 37 | 20 | 10 | 7 | 70 |
| 4 | AS Roma | 37 | 22 | 4 | 11 | 70 |
| 5 | Como | 37 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 68 |
| 6 | Juventus | 37 | 19 | 11 | 7 | 68 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 59 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 16 | 8 | 14 | 56 |
| 9 | Lazio | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 54 |
| 10 | Udinese | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 50 |
| 11 | Sassuolo | 37 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 49 |
| 12 | Torino | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 |
| 13 | Parma | 37 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 42 |
| 14 | Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 42 |
| 15 | Genoa | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 41 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 40 |
| 17 | Lecce | 37 | 9 | 8 | 20 | 35 |
| 18 | Cremonese | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 34 |
| 19 | Hellas Verona | 37 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 21 |
| 20 | Pisa | 38 | 2 | 12 | 24 | 18 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 89 | 35 | +54 | 87 |
| 2 | Como | 37 | 61 | 28 | +33 | 68 |
| 3 | Juventus | 37 | 59 | 32 | +27 | 68 |
| 4 | AS Roma | 37 | 57 | 31 | +26 | 70 |
| 5 | Napoli | 37 | 57 | 36 | +21 | 73 |
| 6 | AC Milan | 37 | 52 | 33 | +19 | 70 |
| 7 | Atalanta | 38 | 51 | 36 | +15 | 59 |
| 8 | Bologna | 38 | 49 | 46 | +3 | 56 |
| 9 | Sassuolo | 37 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 49 |
| 10 | Udinese | 37 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 50 |
| 11 | Torino | 37 | 42 | 61 | -19 | 44 |
| 12 | Lazio | 38 | 41 | 40 | +1 | 54 |
| 13 | Fiorentina | 38 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 42 |
| 14 | Genoa | 37 | 41 | 50 | -9 | 41 |
| 15 | Cagliari | 37 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 40 |
| 16 | Cremonese | 37 | 31 | 53 | -22 | 34 |
| 17 | Parma | 37 | 27 | 46 | -19 | 42 |
| 18 | Lecce | 37 | 27 | 50 | -23 | 35 |
| 19 | Pisa | 38 | 26 | 71 | -45 | 18 |
| 20 | Hellas Verona | 37 | 25 | 59 | -34 | 21 |
| # | EQUIPO | PJ | xG | xGC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 69.7 | 33.4 | +36.3 | 87 |
| 2 | Juventus | 37 | 63.6 | 31.2 | +32.4 | 68 |
| 3 | Como | 37 | 59.9 | 32.7 | +27.2 | 68 |
| 4 | AC Milan | 37 | 57.9 | 40.5 | +17.4 | 70 |
| 5 | Atalanta | 38 | 55.9 | 41.4 | +14.5 | 59 |
| 6 | AS Roma | 37 | 52.1 | 38.3 | +13.8 | 70 |
| 7 | Napoli | 37 | 47.9 | 36.2 | +11.7 | 73 |
| 8 | Fiorentina | 38 | 48.9 | 46.1 | +2.8 | 42 |
| 9 | Bologna | 38 | 42.6 | 44.0 | -1.4 | 56 |
| 10 | Lazio | 38 | 39.8 | 42.0 | -2.2 | 54 |
| 11 | Genoa | 37 | 44.3 | 47.0 | -2.7 | 41 |
| 12 | Torino | 37 | 44.0 | 50.7 | -6.7 | 44 |
| 13 | Udinese | 37 | 41.5 | 50.4 | -8.9 | 50 |
| 14 | Hellas Verona | 37 | 34.5 | 45.3 | -10.8 | 21 |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 37 | 41.7 | 54.1 | -12.4 | 49 |
| 16 | Cagliari | 37 | 34.1 | 51.6 | -17.5 | 40 |
| 17 | Pisa | 38 | 38.1 | 57.8 | -19.7 | 18 |
| 18 | Cremonese | 37 | 34.0 | 55.4 | -21.4 | 34 |
| 19 | Parma | 37 | 31.0 | 55.6 | -24.6 | 42 |
| 20 | Lecce | 37 | 29.1 | 56.6 | -27.5 | 35 |
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