The model missed the final outcome (Armadale win 3–0).
The model had projected UWA Nedlands at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Benar
- 1X2 UWA Nedlands Armadale ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armadale | 32.4% | 47.4% | -15.0 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.3% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
| UWA Nedlands | 38.0% | 28.3% | +9.7 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Armadale's win probability at 47.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 15.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Armadale win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Armadale than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned UWA Nedlands; match finished Armadale
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on UWA Nedlands by 15.0 percentage points (53.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Armadale 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · UWA Nedlands 38.0%
- xG · Armadale 1.24 — UWA Nedlands 1.36
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 06:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Armadale 1.93 · Draw 3.77 · UWA Nedlands 3.23
- Implied 1X2 · Armadale 47.4% · Draw 24.3% · UWA Nedlands 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Armadale 1.93 · Draw 3.77 · UWA Nedlands 3.23
- Implied 1X2 · Armadale 47.4% · Draw 24.3% · UWA Nedlands 28.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 07:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Armadale win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Western Australia NPL — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 47 |
| 2 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 3 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 41 |
| 4 | Perth | 22 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 38 |
| 5 | Fremantle City | 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 35 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 30 |
| 7 | Western Knights | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 25 |
| 8 | Sorrento | 22 | 7 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 9 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 6 | 5 | 11 | 23 |
| 10 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 11 | Armadale | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 21 |
| 12 | Balcatta | 22 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 17 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayswater City | 22 | 60 | 27 | +33 | 47 |
| 2 | Perth | 22 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 38 |
| 3 | Olympic Kingsway | 22 | 44 | 29 | +15 | 41 |
| 4 | Fremantle City | 22 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 35 |
| 5 | Perth Glory II | 22 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 21 |
| 6 | Stirling Lions | 22 | 40 | 38 | +2 | 30 |
| 7 | Armadale | 22 | 40 | 56 | -16 | 21 |
| 8 | Western Knights | 22 | 38 | 40 | -2 | 25 |
| 9 | Perth RedStar | 22 | 35 | 29 | +6 | 41 |
| 10 | Dianella White Eagle | 22 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 23 |
| 11 | Balcatta | 22 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 17 |
| 12 | Sorrento | 22 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 24 |
