AI correctly predicted the 1º de Agosto win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 1º de Agosto 1º de Agosto ✔ Benar
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-1 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1º de Agosto | 41.9% | 46.3% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.3% | 32.0% | -2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Interclube | 28.8% | 21.8% | +7.0 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Interclube's win probability at 28.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.8%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah waktu penuh, kemiringan terarah model cocok dengan hasilnya (1º de Agosto win 2–1).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Interclube.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced 1º de Agosto more conservatively (34.9% vs model 41.9%, 7.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (1º de Agosto win 2–1).
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · 1º de Agosto 41.9% · Draw 29.3% · Interclube 28.8%
- xG · 1º de Agosto 1.44 — Interclube 1.16
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 13:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · 1º de Agosto 1.92 · Draw 2.78 · Interclube 4.08
- Implied 1X2 · 1º de Agosto 46.3% · Draw 32.0% · Interclube 21.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · 1º de Agosto 1.92 · Draw 2.78 · Interclube 4.08
- Implied 1X2 · 1º de Agosto 46.3% · Draw 32.0% · Interclube 21.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 01, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result 1º de Agosto win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Girabola Angola — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | 1º de Agosto | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Onze Bravos | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Petro de Luanda | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | Interclube | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Desportivo Huíla | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | 1º de Maio | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Recreativo do Libolo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Kabuscorp | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | CD Lunda-Sul | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 11 | Recreativo da Caála | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | FC Luanda | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | São Salvador | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 14 | Sagrada Esperança | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Sporting de Cabinda | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wiliete | 5 | 12 | 1 | +11 | 15 |
| 2 | 1º de Agosto | 5 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 |
| 3 | Onze Bravos | 5 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 12 |
| 4 | Petro de Luanda | 4 | 6 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Interclube | 5 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | 1º de Maio | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Desportivo Huíla | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 9 |
| 8 | Recreativo da Caála | 5 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | FC Luanda | 5 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
| 10 | Recreativo do Libolo | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | CD Lunda-Sul | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Sagrada Esperança | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Kabuscorp | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 14 | Sporting de Cabinda | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 2 |
| 15 | São Salvador | 5 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Académica do Lobito | 5 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 |
