The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Toledo at 44.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Toledo Menggambar ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-1 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | 44.3% | 64.6% | -20.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.0% | 23.4% | +5.7 pp | Model Higher |
| Villarrubia | 26.6% | 12.0% | +14.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Toledo's win probability at 64.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 20.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Draw 1–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Toledo; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Toledo by 20.3 percentage points (64.6% vs model 44.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Toledo 44.3% · Draw 29.0% · Villarrubia 26.7%
- xG · Toledo 1.49 — Villarrubia 1.11
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Toledo 1.40 · Draw 3.87 · Villarrubia 7.53
- Implied 1X2 · Toledo 64.6% · Draw 23.4% · Villarrubia 12.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Toledo 1.40 · Draw 3.87 · Villarrubia 7.53
- Implied 1X2 · Toledo 64.6% · Draw 23.4% · Villarrubia 12.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (20 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
Jelajahi Konten Prediksi Lainnya
Dapatkan Prediksi Premium untuk Toledo & Villarrubia!
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Tercera División RFEF - Grup 18 — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Marchamalo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Noblejas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Torrijos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Tarancón | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Villarrobledo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Illescas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Almansa | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Toledo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Villacañas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | La Solana | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Socuéllamos | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 13 | CD Villa | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Quintanar del Rey | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Villarrubia | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 16 | San Clemente | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarancón | 4 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Marchamalo | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Noblejas | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 4 | Toledo | 3 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 5 | Villarrobledo | 3 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 5 |
| 6 | Almansa | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 7 | Quintanar del Rey | 3 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2 |
| 8 | Manchego | 3 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 | La Solana | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Guadalajara II | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 11 | Torrijos | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 12 | Illescas | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 13 | Villacañas | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 4 |
| 14 | CD Villa | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 15 | Villarrubia | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 16 | San Clemente | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 2 |
| 17 | Socuéllamos | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 3 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 |
