The model missed the final outcome (USM Alger win 2–3).
The model had projected Oued Akbou at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 sasaran) ✔ Benar
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Oued Akbou USM Alger ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oued Akbou | 35.6% | 36.4% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 34.5% | -4.8 pp | Aligned |
| USM Alger | 34.7% | 29.2% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates USM Alger's win probability at 34.7%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.2%, a difference of 5.5 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah USM Alger win 2–3.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on USM Alger.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Oued Akbou; match finished USM Alger
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Oued Akbou by 5.5 percentage points (30.1% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Oued Akbou 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · USM Alger 34.7%
- xG · Oued Akbou 1.31 — USM Alger 1.29
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Oued Akbou 2.55 · Draw 2.69 · USM Alger 3.18
- Implied 1X2 · Oued Akbou 36.4% · Draw 34.5% · USM Alger 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Oued Akbou 2.55 · Draw 2.69 · USM Alger 3.18
- Implied 1X2 · Oued Akbou 36.4% · Draw 34.5% · USM Alger 29.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result USM Alger win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
Jelajahi Konten Prediksi Lainnya
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Ligue 1 Aljazair — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Alger | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | MC Oran | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Ben Aknoun | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 5 | CS Constantine | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Témouchent | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | ES Setif | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | MC Alger | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | JS El Biar | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | JS Kabylie | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Oued Akbou | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | MB Rouisset | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Khenchela | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | US Biskra | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | ASO Chlef | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | JS Saoura | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USM Alger | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 2 | CR Belouizdad | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 | ES Setif | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 3 |
| 4 | CS Constantine | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ben Aknoun | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 6 | JS El Biar | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Oued Akbou | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | MC Oran | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 6 |
| 9 | ASO Chlef | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | MC Alger | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 11 | Témouchent | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | MB Rouisset | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | US Biskra | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | JS Kabylie | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Khenchela | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 16 | JS Saoura | 2 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 1 |
