The model missed the final outcome (Ipswich Town W win 0–1).
The model had projected Leicester City WFC at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 sasaran) ✔ Benar
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ Salah
- 1X2 Leicester City WFC Ipswich Town W ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester City WFC | 37.5% | 65.0% | -27.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 19.8% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Ipswich Town W | 32.9% | 15.3% | +17.6 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Leicester City WFC's win probability at 65.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.5%, a difference of 27.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Ipswich Town W win 0–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned Leicester City WFC; match finished Ipswich Town W
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Leicester City WFC by 27.4 percentage points (64.9% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Leicester City WFC 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Ipswich Town W 32.9%
- xG · Leicester City WFC 1.35 — Ipswich Town W 1.25
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 13:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Leicester City WFC 1.39 · Draw 4.57 · Ipswich Town W 5.91
- Implied 1X2 · Leicester City WFC 65.0% · Draw 19.8% · Ipswich Town W 15.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Leicester City WFC 1.39 · Draw 4.57 · Ipswich Town W 5.91
- Implied 1X2 · Leicester City WFC 65.0% · Draw 19.8% · Ipswich Town W 15.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ipswich Town W win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (27 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Kejuaraan Wanita — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Leicester City WFC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Southampton W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Ipswich Town W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Bristol City Women | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Watford W | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 10 | Burnley Women | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Durham W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Sheffield United W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle United W | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sunderland W | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Wolverhampton W | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Bristol City Women | 4 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Leicester City WFC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 6 | Nottingham Forest W | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 | Durham W | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 |
| 8 | Southampton W | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 5 |
| 9 | Watford W | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Sheffield United W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 12 | Burnley Women | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 |
