AI correctly predicted the Manchester City W win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Manchester City W Manchester City W ✔ Benar
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City W | 45.3% | 87.5% | -42.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 8.4% | +20.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Birmingham City Women | 25.8% | 4.0% | +21.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Manchester City W's win probability at 87.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 42.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah waktu penuh, kemiringan terarah model cocok dengan hasilnya (Manchester City W win 3–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Manchester City W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.51 vs 1.09)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Manchester City W higher (87.5% vs model 45.3%, 42.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Manchester City W win 3–1).
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Manchester City W 45.3% · Draw 28.9% · Birmingham City Women 25.8%
- xG · Manchester City W 1.51 — Birmingham City Women 1.09
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Manchester City W 1.06 · Draw 11.00 · Birmingham City Women 23.00
- Implied 1X2 · Manchester City W 87.5% · Draw 8.4% · Birmingham City Women 4.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Manchester City W 1.06 · Draw 11.00 · Birmingham City Women 23.00
- Implied 1X2 · Manchester City W 87.5% · Draw 8.4% · Birmingham City Women 4.0%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 13:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Manchester City W win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (42 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
FA Women's Super League — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 |
| 2 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Arsenal Women | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Aston Villa Women | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 11 | Brighton & Hove Albion Women | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 12 | Birmingham City Women | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Manchester United W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 4 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 2 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | 11 | 2 | +9 | 7 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 4 | Chelsea W | 3 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 7 |
| 5 | Liverpool W | 3 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 6 | West Ham W | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 7 | Aston Villa Women | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove Albion Women | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 |
| 9 | Birmingham City Women | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Everton W | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 6 |
| 11 | Arsenal Women | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 12 | Manchester United W | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 1 |
| 13 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 4 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | xG | xGC | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | London City Lionesses | 4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | +1.0 | 9 |
| 2 | Manchester United W | 3 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -1.0 | 1 |
| 3 | Manchester City W | 4 | — | — | — | 12 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 5 | Chelsea W | 3 | — | — | — | 7 |
| 6 | Everton W | 3 | — | — | — | 6 |
| 7 | Arsenal Women | 3 | — | — | — | 5 |
| 8 | Liverpool W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 9 | Crystal Palace W | 3 | — | — | — | 4 |
| 10 | West Ham W | 3 | — | — | — | 3 |
| 11 | Aston Villa Women | 3 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 12 | Brighton & Hove Albion Women | 4 | — | — | — | 2 |
| 13 | Birmingham City Women | 3 | — | — | — | 1 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 4 | — | — | — | 0 |
