The model missed the final outcome (Draw 3–3).
The model had projected Swieqi United at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (6 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ Salah
- 1X2 Swieqi United Menggambar ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-3 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attard | 34.2% | 20.6% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 21.2% | +8.4 pp | Model Higher |
| Swieqi United | 36.1% | 58.2% | -22.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Swieqi United's win probability at 58.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 22.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Draw 3–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 6 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (6 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Swieqi United by 22.1 percentage points (58.2% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Attard 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Swieqi United 36.1%
- xG · Attard 1.28 — Swieqi United 1.32
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:06 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Attard 4.33 · Draw 4.20 · Swieqi United 1.53
- Implied 1X2 · Attard 20.6% · Draw 21.2% · Swieqi United 58.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Attard 4.33 · Draw 4.20 · Swieqi United 1.53
- Implied 1X2 · Attard 20.6% · Draw 21.2% · Swieqi United 58.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 18:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 3–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (22 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Malta Challenge League — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Victoria Hotspurs | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Fgura United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Vittoriosa Stars | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Swieqi United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Sirens | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Melita | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Naxxar Lions | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Pietà Hotspurs | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Mgarr United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Santa Lucía | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 12 | Attard | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | St. Andrews | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Zurrieq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Gudja United | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | Zebbug Rangers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarxien Rainbows | 2 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 2 | Swieqi United | 2 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 4 |
| 3 | Victoria Hotspurs | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Fgura United | 2 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 4 |
| 5 | Naxxar Lions | 2 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | Pietà Hotspurs | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Melita | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 | Attard | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 9 | Mgarr United | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Vittoriosa Stars | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 4 |
| 11 | Sirens | 2 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 12 | Santa Lucía | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Zurrieq | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 14 | St. Andrews | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 15 | Zebbug Rangers | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
| 16 | Gudja United | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
