The model missed the final outcome (Tanjong Pagar United win 3–4).
The model had projected Balestier Khalsa at 46.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Tidak Ya ✖ Salah
- 1X2 Balestier Khalsa Tanjong Pagar United ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-4 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balestier Khalsa | 46.8% | 55.9% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.6% | 18.4% | +10.2 pp | Model Edge |
| Tanjong Pagar United | 24.5% | 25.7% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 28.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 18.4%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Tanjong Pagar United win 3–4.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Draw.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Balestier Khalsa by 10.2 percentage points (36.5% vs model 46.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Balestier Khalsa 46.8% · Draw 28.7% · Tanjong Pagar United 24.6%
- xG · Balestier Khalsa 1.54 — Tanjong Pagar United 1.06
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Balestier Khalsa 1.64 · Draw 4.98 · Tanjong Pagar United 3.56
- Implied 1X2 · Balestier Khalsa 55.9% · Draw 18.4% · Tanjong Pagar United 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:31 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Balestier Khalsa 1.64 · Draw 4.98 · Tanjong Pagar United 3.56
- Implied 1X2 · Balestier Khalsa 55.9% · Draw 18.4% · Tanjong Pagar United 25.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 11:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Tanjong Pagar United win · 3–4
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Liga Premier Singapura — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata Singapura | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanjong Pagar United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Home United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 6 | Hougang United | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albirex Niigata Singapura | 2 | 7 | 0 | +7 | 6 |
| 2 | Geylang International | 2 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 3 | Tanjong Pagar United | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Balestier Khalsa | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
| 5 | Tampines Rovers | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 6 | Home United | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Hougang United | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 1 |
| 8 | Young Lions | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 |
