The model missed the final outcome (Rayong FC win 1–0).
The model had projected Draw at 34.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 sasaran) ✔ Benar
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Tidak Tidak ✔ Benar
- 1X2 draw Rayong FC ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayong FC | 32.9% | 30.6% | +2.3 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 34.2% | 28.7% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Prachuap | 32.9% | 40.7% | -7.8 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Prachuap's win probability at 40.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 7.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Rayong FC win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Prachuap. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 2.02, 1 goals)
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned draw; match finished Rayong FC
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Draw by 7.8 percentage points (42.0% vs model 34.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rayong FC 32.9% · Draw 34.2% · Prachuap 32.9%
- xG · Rayong FC 1.01 — Prachuap 1.01
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Rayong FC 3.03 · Draw 3.23 · Prachuap 2.28
- Implied 1X2 · Rayong FC 30.6% · Draw 28.7% · Prachuap 40.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rayong FC 3.03 · Draw 3.23 · Prachuap 2.28
- Implied 1X2 · Rayong FC 30.6% · Draw 28.7% · Prachuap 40.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rayong FC win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Thai League 1 — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | Rayong FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Uthai Thani | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Prachuap | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Bangkok United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Port FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Ayutthaya FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Bangkok Glass | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Ratchaburi | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Chiangrai United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Pattani | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Sukhothai FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Sisaket United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Rasi Salai United | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Lamphun Warrior | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uthai Thani | 3 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 2 | Bangkok United | 3 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 3 | Buriram United | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 4 | Rayong FC | 3 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 5 | Port FC | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 6 | Bangkok Glass | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Prachuap | 3 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 9 | Rasi Salai United | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 1 |
| 10 | Ratchaburi | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 15 | Sisaket United | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 |
