AI correctly predicted the Al Thaid win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Al Thaid Al Thaid ✔ Benar
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-3 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gulf United | 32.4% | 40.5% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.7% | +2.9 pp | Aligned |
| Al Thaid | 38.0% | 32.7% | +5.3 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Gulf United's win probability at 40.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.4%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah waktu penuh, kemiringan terarah model cocok dengan hasilnya (Al Thaid win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Gulf United. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Al Thaid higher (46.2% vs model 38.0%, 8.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Al Thaid win 2–3).
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Gulf United 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Al Thaid 38.0%
- xG · Gulf United 1.24 — Al Thaid 1.36
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Sep 04, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Gulf United 2.18 · Draw 3.31 · Al Thaid 2.70
- Implied 1X2 · Gulf United 40.5% · Draw 26.7% · Al Thaid 32.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 15:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Gulf United 2.18 · Draw 3.31 · Al Thaid 2.70
- Implied 1X2 · Gulf United 40.5% · Draw 26.7% · Al Thaid 32.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 04, 2026 · 15:05 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Al Thaid win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Divisi 1 UEA — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Thaid | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Al Bataeh | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Al Fujairah SC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Al Urooba | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Forte Virtus | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Dibba Al Hisn | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Gulf United | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Emirates Club | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Palm City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Al Hamriyah | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | Ittifaq | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 4 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 10 |
| 2 | Al Thaid | 4 | 11 | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 3 | Al Fujairah SC | 3 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 6 |
| 4 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gulf United | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 6 | City | 4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | Al Urooba | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
| 8 | Palm City | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
| 9 | Dibba Al Hisn | 2 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 10 | Emirates Club | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Al Bataeh | 4 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 7 |
| 12 | Forte Virtus | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Hamriyah | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 4 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 2 |
| 15 | Ittifaq | 4 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 |
