AI correctly predicted the Borac Banja Luka win.
The match finished 2–3, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 sasaran) ✔ Benar
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Borac Banja Luka Borac Banja Luka ✔ Benar
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-3 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Široki Brijeg | 26.2% | 15.7% | +10.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 28.9% | 23.3% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Borac Banja Luka | 44.8% | 61.0% | -16.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Borac Banja Luka's win probability at 61.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
Setelah waktu penuh, kemiringan terarah model cocok dengan hasilnya (Borac Banja Luka win 2–3).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Borac Banja Luka than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Borac Banja Luka attacking xG significantly stronger (1.50 vs 1.10)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Borac Banja Luka higher (60.9% vs model 44.8%, 16.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Borac Banja Luka win 2–3).
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Široki Brijeg 26.2% · Draw 29.0% · Borac Banja Luka 44.8%
- xG · Široki Brijeg 1.10 — Borac Banja Luka 1.50
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Široki Brijeg 5.91 · Draw 3.97 · Borac Banja Luka 1.52
- Implied 1X2 · Široki Brijeg 15.7% · Draw 23.3% · Borac Banja Luka 61.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 14:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Široki Brijeg 5.91 · Draw 3.97 · Borac Banja Luka 1.52
- Implied 1X2 · Široki Brijeg 15.7% · Draw 23.3% · Borac Banja Luka 61.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Borac Banja Luka win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (16 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Premijer Liga Bosnia — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HŠK Zrinjski Mostar | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Željezničar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Široki Brijeg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež Mostar | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HŠK Zrinjski Mostar | 8 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 4 |
| 5 | Čelik | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Željezničar Sarajevo | 8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Široki Brijeg | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Velež Mostar | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 9 |
