AI correctly predicted the Borac Banja Luka win.
The match finished 3–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Borac Banja Luka Borac Banja Luka ✔ Benar
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 3-1 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borac Banja Luka | 45.8% | 69.1% | -23.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.8% | 19.8% | +9.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Velež Mostar | 25.4% | 11.1% | +14.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Borac Banja Luka's win probability at 69.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.8%, a difference of 23.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah waktu penuh, kemiringan terarah model cocok dengan hasilnya (Borac Banja Luka win 3–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Borac Banja Luka attacking xG significantly stronger (1.52 vs 1.08)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Borac Banja Luka higher (69.1% vs model 45.8%, 23.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Borac Banja Luka win 3–1).
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Borac Banja Luka 45.8% · Draw 28.8% · Velež Mostar 25.4%
- xG · Borac Banja Luka 1.52 — Velež Mostar 1.08
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Borac Banja Luka 1.31 · Draw 4.57 · Velež Mostar 8.19
- Implied 1X2 · Borac Banja Luka 69.1% · Draw 19.8% · Velež Mostar 11.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Borac Banja Luka 1.31 · Draw 4.57 · Velež Mostar 8.19
- Implied 1X2 · Borac Banja Luka 69.1% · Draw 19.8% · Velež Mostar 11.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Borac Banja Luka win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Label sejarah: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (23 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Premijer Liga Bosnia — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HŠK Zrinjski Mostar | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | Željezničar Sarajevo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Široki Brijeg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | Čelik | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 8 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Velež Mostar | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HŠK Zrinjski Mostar | 8 | 17 | 5 | +12 | 21 |
| 2 | Borac Banja Luka | 8 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 19 |
| 3 | BSK Banja Luka | 8 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 4 | Radnik Bijeljina | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 4 |
| 5 | Čelik | 8 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 8 |
| 6 | Željezničar Sarajevo | 8 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 7 | Široki Brijeg | 8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 8 | FK Sarajevo | 8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Velež Mostar | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 7 |
| 10 | Sloga Doboj | 8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 9 |
