AI correctly predicted the Union Saint-Gilloise II win.
The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 sasaran) ✔ Benar
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Tidak ✖ Salah
- 1X2 Union Saint-Gilloise II Union Saint-Gilloise II ✔ Benar
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Saint-Gilloise II | 35.2% | 46.0% | -10.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.4% | +3.2 pp | Aligned |
| Habay-la-Neuve | 35.2% | 27.6% | +7.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Union Saint-Gilloise II's win probability at 46.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 10.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah waktu penuh, kemiringan terarah model cocok dengan hasilnya (Union Saint-Gilloise II win 2–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Union Saint-Gilloise II than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Union Saint-Gilloise II higher (46.0% vs model 35.2%, 10.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Union Saint-Gilloise II win 2–0).
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
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Sep 05, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Union Saint-Gilloise II 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Habay-la-Neuve 35.2%
- xG · Union Saint-Gilloise II 1.30 — Habay-la-Neuve 1.30
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Sep 05, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Union Saint-Gilloise II 1.99 · Draw 3.46 · Habay-la-Neuve 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · Union Saint-Gilloise II 46.0% · Draw 26.4% · Habay-la-Neuve 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Union Saint-Gilloise II 1.99 · Draw 3.46 · Habay-la-Neuve 3.32
- Implied 1X2 · Union Saint-Gilloise II 46.0% · Draw 26.4% · Habay-la-Neuve 27.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
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Sep 05, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
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FT Full-time result Union Saint-Gilloise II win · 2–0
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FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
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Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (11 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Divisi Amatir Pertama Belgia — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | RWDM | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 3 | Tubize | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Rochefort | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Onhaye | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 9 | Standard Liège II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 10 | Habay-la-Neuve | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 11 | Olympic Charleroi | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Flénu | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meux | 6 | 14 | 4 | +10 | 15 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 5 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 10 |
| 3 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Tubize | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 11 |
| 5 | RWDM | 5 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 15 |
| 6 | Onhaye | 6 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 6 |
| 7 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Standard Liège II | 5 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 4 |
| 9 | Habay-la-Neuve | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 |
| 10 | Flénu | 5 | 5 | 13 | -8 | 1 |
| 11 | Sporting Charleroi II | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Olympic Charleroi | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
