The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Wolfurt at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Wolfurt Menggambar ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Salah
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfurt | 43.4% | 44.9% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.1% | 23.5% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Rheindorf Altach II | 27.5% | 31.5% | -4.0 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Wolfurt; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Wolfurt by 5.6 percentage points (37.8% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wolfurt 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Rheindorf Altach II 27.5%
- xG · Wolfurt 1.47 — Rheindorf Altach II 1.13
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wolfurt 2.00 · Draw 3.82 · Rheindorf Altach II 2.85
- Implied 1X2 · Wolfurt 44.9% · Draw 23.5% · Rheindorf Altach II 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wolfurt 2.00 · Draw 3.82 · Rheindorf Altach II 2.85
- Implied 1X2 · Wolfurt 44.9% · Draw 23.5% · Rheindorf Altach II 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Regionalliga West — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hohenems | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Dornbirn | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | SC Imst | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Schwaz | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | SK St. Johann | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Swarovski Tirol II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Röthis | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Fügen | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Kufstein | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Lochau | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | Rheindorf Altach II | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 14 | Lustenau | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Wolfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Lauterach | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornbirn | 8 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 20 |
| 2 | Hohenems | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 21 |
| 3 | Swarovski Tirol II | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 |
| 4 | Schwaz | 8 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 8 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 | Rheindorf Altach II | 8 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 6 |
| 7 | Röthis | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 8 | Fügen | 8 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
| 9 | SC Imst | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 |
| 10 | SK St. Johann | 8 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 11 | Lochau | 8 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Lauterach | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Wolfurt | 8 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Kufstein | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | SVG Reichenau | 8 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Lustenau | 8 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 5 |
