The model missed the final outcome (Orihuela win 1–2).
The model had projected Real Murcia B at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 sasaran) ✖ Salah
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Real Murcia B Orihuela ✖ Salah
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Murcia B | 36.1% | 26.3% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.2% | +0.4 pp | Aligned |
| Orihuela | 34.2% | 44.4% | -10.2 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Orihuela's win probability at 44.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 10.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah full time, hasilnya adalah Orihuela win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Orihuela than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Real Murcia B; match finished Orihuela
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Real Murcia B by 10.2 percentage points (46.3% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Real Murcia B 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Orihuela 34.2%
- xG · Real Murcia B 1.32 — Orihuela 1.28
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Real Murcia B 3.48 · Draw 3.13 · Orihuela 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · Real Murcia B 26.3% · Draw 29.2% · Orihuela 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Real Murcia B 3.48 · Draw 3.13 · Orihuela 2.06
- Implied 1X2 · Real Murcia B 26.3% · Draw 29.2% · Orihuela 44.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Orihuela win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Segunda División RFEF - Grup 3 — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Castellonense | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Intercity | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Orihuela | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Deportiva Minera | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | La Nucía | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Yeclano | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Cieza | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Elche II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Mallorca II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Valencia II | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Alcoyano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Real Murcia B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | UCAM Murcia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Atlético Baleares | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Peña Deportiva | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 | Poblense | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 2 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Castellonense | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Intercity | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 4 | Orihuela | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 5 | Deportiva Minera | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 6 | La Nucía | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 7 | Yeclano | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 8 | Cieza | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 9 | Elche II | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Lorca Deportiva | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 11 | Mallorca II | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Valencia II | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Real Murcia B | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 14 | UCAM Murcia | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| 15 | Alcoyano | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
| 16 | Atlético Baleares | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 17 | Peña Deportiva | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 18 | Poblense | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
