AI correctly predicted the Utebo win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Pasar terlacak vs hasil penuh waktu
Setiap baris membandingkan model pra-pertandingan dengan hasil penuh waktu.
- Pasar Ramalan Hasil Hasil
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 sasaran) ✔ Benar
- Kedua Tim Mencetak Skor BTTS Ya Ya ✔ Benar
- 1X2 Utebo Utebo ✔ Benar
- Wawasan skor akurat 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Benar
Model vs Pasar Penutupan
| Hasil | Model | Menutup Pasar | Perbedaan | Sinyal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olot | 34.7% | 42.9% | -8.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.0% | +0.6 pp | Aligned |
| Utebo | 35.6% | 28.1% | +7.5 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Olot's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 8.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
Setelah waktu penuh, kemiringan terarah model cocok dengan hasilnya (Utebo win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Olot. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Utebo higher (43.8% vs model 35.6%, 8.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Utebo win 1–2).
Garis Waktu Prediksi
Bagaimana prediksi ini berpindah dari perkiraan ke tinjauan penuh waktu.
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Olot 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Utebo 35.6%
- xG · Olot 1.29 — Utebo 1.31
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Olot 2.10 · Draw 3.10 · Utebo 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Olot 42.9% · Draw 29.0% · Utebo 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Olot 2.10 · Draw 3.10 · Utebo 3.20
- Implied 1X2 · Olot 42.9% · Draw 29.0% · Utebo 28.1%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 19, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Utebo win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Cuplikan Sejarah
Dibekukan saat kickoff — keluaran model seperti sebelum pertandingan dimulai.
Metrik pra-pertandingan (konteks historis)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Tinjau FAQ
- Seberapa akurat prediksinya?
- Halaman ini menilai pasar terarah (1X2, Atas/Bawah 2.5, BTTS) dibandingkan dengan hasil penuh waktu. Nilai prediksi mencerminkan seberapa banyak pasar yang dilacak tersebut sesuai dengan kenyataan.
- Apa yang diukur oleh Akurasi xG?
- Akurasi xG membandingkan profil gol yang diharapkan sebelum pertandingan dengan skor sebenarnya — bukan apakah setiap pasar berhasil. Tinjauan terarah yang kuat dapat dilakukan bersamaan dengan skor akurasi xG yang moderat.
- Mengapa skor pastinya tidak diprediksi?
- Hasil skor yang benar memiliki probabilitas yang rendah meskipun model membaca profil pertandingan dengan baik. Kami menyoroti kumpulan skor tertinggi untuk konteks; melewatkan garis yang tepat tidak membatalkan tinjauan terarah.
- Apakah ini meningkatkan rekor AI?
- Setiap kecocokan yang telah selesai dicatat dalam jalur validasi kami. Tingkat hit gabungan dan studi CLV dipublikasikan secara terpisah — halaman ini adalah jejak audit per pertandingan.
Prediksi hanya untuk tujuan informasi. Selalu bertaruh secara bertanggung jawab dan sesuai batas kemampuan Anda. Kinerja masa lalu tidak menjamin hasil di masa depan.
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Berlangganan Sekarang
Segunda División RFEF - Grup 2 — Klasemen
| # | TIM | Main | M | S | K | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Osasuna B | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Ebro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Terrassa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Espanyol B | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Manresa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Utebo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | UD Logroñés II | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Girona II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Olot | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Barbastro | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Reddis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Calamocha | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | SD Logroñés | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Arnedo | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Náxara CD | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TIM | Main | Gol | Kebob | +/- | Poin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 4 | 10 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 2 | Espanyol B | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 3 | Girona II | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Manresa | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Osasuna B | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Ebro | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Olot | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Utebo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Barbastro | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | SD Logroñés | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | UD Logroñés II | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Calamocha | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Terrassa | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 16 | Arnedo | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 |
| 17 | Reddis | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Náxara CD | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
